Golden Knights riding top line against the Sharks

Travis Yost

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The National Hockey League is in the midst of one of the more entertaining second rounds in recent playoff history. This is one of the hidden benefits of not having any real upsets in the first round – you see more compelling action further down the road.

In that vein, the Pacific Division has certainly delivered. San Jose and Vegas have played five games, with the Knights holding a 3-2 series lead. Despite a couple of lopsided box scores (Vegas won Game 1 7-0; San Jose won Game 4 4-0), the series has been extremely competitive.

The Sharks have had their moments – their aggressive forecheck has given Vegas’ blueline issues, and they’ve been able to generate heaps of scoring chances right in front of Marc-Andre Fleury’s crease. Even with Joe Thornton out their power play has been able to deliver, with five goals in five games.

Fleury (94.6 save percentage) has been sensational and may be the Conn Smythe favourite right now, but there’s no doubt he has looked less comfortable against San Jose’s waves of attacks than he did against Los Angeles’ punchless offence.

You aren’t alone if you have felt that San Jose has looked the better side through the first five games, even with the series deficit and facing elimination on Sunday night at the Shark Tank. Vegas’ depth has struggled more than usual.

But there has been one massive card in Vegas’ favour. Their top line of Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, and William Karlsson – as they have done all season long – are terrorizing every combination of players Sharks coach Peter DeBoer throws at them. The on-ice/off-ice splits for Vegas, in that light, are something to behold:

If you’re giving up more than 60 per cent of the shots and scoring chances and 87 per cent of the goals to any team’s top line, you’re going to have a bad time. And that’s precisely what has happened in the first five games of the San Jose series.

The Sharks don’t seem to have any answer for the speed and pace of which that group plays, and most shifts have been little more than futile attempts to not get scored on as Vegas works a sustained offensive zone cycle.

It’s worth mentioning that this isn’t the typical performance you should expect from a top line against a comparatively quality opponent. If you look at the best performance measures of all players in the second round, you see that the Vegas top line is dummying San Jose in a way that no other line around the league seems to be doing.

Below is a quick reference table showing best Corsi%, Scoring Chance%, and Goal% (EV) for all qualified players during the second round:

 San Jose obviously has a dilemma. They can either throw their best units against Vegas’ top line and hope their depth can outscore their opponents, or they can assume that any matchup against Vegas’ top line is going to be a loss and save their best weapons against Vegas’ weaker players.

Through five games, the Sharks have kind of played around with forward matchups, but they have consistently utilized their shutdown pairing of Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Justin Braun against the Knights’ first line. As you can see, the Vlasic/Braun pairing has played around 70 per cent of even-strength minutes, which is materially higher than any other player on the roster:

You aren’t going to find many better shutdown defensive players than Vlasic, and that pairing with Braun has been effective for years now. But it’s noticeable how they’re a step or two slower in the run of play against a group of Vegas attackers who skate like the wind and whip the puck around effortlessly in the offensive zone.

It also raises an interesting strategical question. If Vegas’ top line is running wild against San Jose’s best defensive pairing, what can DeBoer really do? The only other option – as alluded to earlier – is to totally punt those minutes away. I’m not sure how much worse it can get than sub-40 per cent shots, scoring chances, or goals, but you never know.

That’s why it’s worth keeping an eye on what San Jose does with home ice in Game 6. Their backs are officially against the wall and what they have tried against Vegas’ first line has failed. Do they roll the dice once more, or make a massive deployment change?

We’ll find out on Sunday night.