How to calculate a successful Blue Jays season

Steve Phillips

TSN Baseball Insider

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Of course, wins and losses are part of the equation when you’re talking about what constitutes a successful Major League Baseball season. Revenues generated are part of the calculation as well.

But what, exactly, makes for a successful season when it comes to a rebuilding club like the Toronto Blue Jays? They clearly have no chance to win this season and will likely generate far less revenue in 2019 than they have in the last several years. Is it doomed to be a failure?

Not necessarily.

Success is calculated based upon the expectations going into a given season. There are extremely low expectations about the success on the field for the Jays in the tough American League East this year. The club has accepted that everything from attendance numbers and suite sales to ad sales and sponsorship deals will decline during a rebuilding process.

So in 2019 the Jays will be graded on growth and progress. Ultimately, the “process” will be judged. Most of the improvements will be determined by individual player growth. The front office needs to determine which players are part of the problem and which players are part of the solution for the long term.

At the end of the season, general manager Ross Atkins, president Mark Shapiro and manager Charlie Montoyo need a better understanding if their young pitchers (Ryan Borucki, Sean Reid-Foley, Thomas Pannone, etc.) have what it takes to be part of a championship rotation in the future. They want to find out if Lourdes Gurriel Jr. can be an everyday player both offensively and defensively at second base, or is he simply a utility man? Can Danny Jansen be a solid two-way everyday catcher who can bat fifth or sixth in a good lineup? Is Randal Grichuk a good player on a good team, or a streaky player who can put up numbers on a bad team? Can Vladimir Guerrero Jr. be an average defender at third base? 

You get the point. A successful season for a rebuilding team is getting answers to questions. Wins over losses are just icing on the cake. 

Blue Jays storylines

The top storyline for the Blue Jays in 2019 is the introduction of Guerrero Jr. to the major leagues and his campaign for Rookie of the Year.

Here are a few more storylines:

-Will Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez get their careers back on track and will they be traded by the July 31 deadline? Will any veteran relievers perform well and become trade chips at the trade deadline?

-How will Charlie Montoyo fare in his first year on the job as manager of the Jays?

-Will the growing use of analytics have an impact on how the Jays prepare and perform on the field? 

-Which other prospects will make their way north of the border to start their major league careers? Maybe Bo Bichette?

-Will the Jays have a chance to be a spoiler in the AL East and wild-card races? After all, they play 57 of their 162 games against the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. 

The Blue Jays will be a fun team to watch and evaluate over the course of the season. 

Breakout players

As the season gets started, I’m most anxious to see how Guerrero Jr., Jansen and Gurriel Jr. perform. They all have significant upside. A breakout season by all three would set the Jays up nicely with a solid backstop who is an offensive threat, a middle infielder who hits from line-to-line with some pop and a big run-producing power bat as a corner infielder. 

Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk both have light-tower power but haven’t found consistency. If they do, they could become impact talents. Right now, they are just guys with tools that haven’t translated into impact skills. 

Finally, Brandon Drury is an intriguing player: he has two 30-plus double seasons (2016 and 2017). He’s still just 26 and there is upside in his game. If he can convert a few of those doubles into home runs he could evolve into an even more impactful talent.

SPITTING SEEDS

-The training room is crowded in the Rogers Centre as a slew of pitchers are suffering from arm issues. The loss of Ryan Tepera and John Axford to injuries cuts into the experience level that helps protect some of the younger arms. The signing of veteran right-hander Daniel Hudson adds a level of protection and another potential trade piece at the deadline. Depth in pitching is critical to protect younger pitchers so they can grow into higher leverage roles instead of being thrown into the fire. 

-Ryan Borucki’s sore left elbow is troubling because the Jays really want to see if he can pick up where he left off last season. He got off to a nice start in his career; pitching to a 3.87 ERA in 17 starts in 2018. He had a number of excellent starts against really good teams including the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners and Philadelphia Phillies. To be an answer for the team’s future, the Jays want to see what he can do once the league is better prepared to face him.

-The Jays hit the second-most home runs this spring, yet they are ranked 21st in runs scored. That shows a big dependence on the long ball and not much in the way of manufacturing runs. It was only spring training numbers, but it’s certainly something to keep an eye on in the future.

-The Jays attempted 14 stolen bases, with seven caught stealing, this spring under Montoyo which is a far cry from last year under John Gibbons when they attempted 28 stolen bases and were caught 10 times.

-Defensively, Toronto had the second-fewest number of errors committed during spring training. That is a stark contrast to the 2018 regular season when the Jays had the ninth-most errors in the majors. It’s a good sign that this year’s team has improved defensively. 

-Sanchez and Stroman looked great in spring training. Sanchez threw 17.2 IP and only allowed nine hits while striking out 14. Stroman has thrown 12.1 innings in major league spring training games while striking out 13 and only allowing six hits. He was even better on Opening Day against the Detroit Tigers, going seven shutout innings with seven punchouts. Both pitchers have both looked pretty good which, as stated above, is really important to Toronto.