All trends have a shelf life. If you are hot, get ready, because a cold streak is inevitably coming. If you are beset by a string of losses, hang tight, because a win will arrive eventually. The NHL is fluid and the only constant is inconsistency in results. Several win and loss streaks course through the picks for this week, and I believe betting on them ending is the wise play. 

Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers
Saturday, Feb. 27 – 7 PM ET

Can you apply the brakes when a bad situation snowballs? As of last Sunday, the Hurricanes had not lost consecutive games this season. They were at the champagne toasts part of dinner. Less than a week later, Carolina is mired in a three-game losing streak, as its scoring has dried up and the Lightning would register 10 goals in three games. So what makes Carolina a good bet against the Central Division leading Florida Panthers?

Carolina is very adept at limiting rush chances. The Hurricanes defencemen are confrontational and aggressive in the neutral zone, and good gap control demands that their opponents forecheck and cycle against them. But Tampa Bay identified a life hack. In the Lightning’s three victories they employed their defencemen as offensive catalysts.

On Monday, the Lightning ran a pick play off the faceoff that rubbed out the Hurricanes left wing and thereby forced the right wing into a two-on-one, desperate to cover two Tampa Bay defencemen at once. Ultimately, this frantic rotation left Victor Hedman unmarked to strike off the weak side.

On Wednesday, the Lightning exhorted Alex Killorn to carry the puck up toward the point so that Hedman could run a wheel route and crisscross with Killorn. Hedman would carry the puck behind the net before sliding it into the slot for Ross Colton’s first NHL goal.

So why does this matter? The Panthers prefer to attack off the rush with their forwards and use stretch passes to achieve that. Florida just finished a series against the Dallas Stars, and on Thursday night the reigning Western Conference champs effectively threw sand in the gears of the Panthers’ transition attack for over 50 minutes before a rapid collapse. But the strategy of hindering the Panthers by taking away their speed through the neutral zone is a blueprint Carolina will surely filch.

Philosophically, Florida prefers to have its forwards do the heavy legwork in the offensive zone, while its defencemen stay mostly rooted at their points. Not breaking news, but while Aaron Ekblad and MacKenzie Weegar have some mobility, they don’t possess Hedman’s luminescent creativity. Goals off the chip and chase are more likely to be garnered by chucking shots on net and hoping screens and deflections guide them into the net. It could work, but this is a narrower path to victory.

By the numbers, this matchup is pretty close, and Florida may have the goaltending edge if Chris Driedger gets the nod. But the Hurricanes’ expected goals and high-danger chances didn’t dip enough in their three defeats to presage anything ominous. Carolina is too good to drop four straight. 

Pick: Hurricanes - 122

Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers
Saturday, Feb. 27 – 7 PM ET

Are the Edmonton Oilers actually this good? Yes, Connor McDavid is putting forth work that rivals the artistry and technique of the Sistine Chapel. But the Oilers’ five-game win streak masks a few alarming numbers that should cause bettors to take the Maple Leafs. 

Despite their win streak, Edmonton has been underwhelming at 5-on-5. The Oilers are posting at 44.94 per cent in high-danger chances. Sinking that percentage is the fact that Edmonton sits alone with the Anaheim Ducks in terms of allowing 13 high-danger chances per 60 minutes. In expected goals, the Oilers are similarly awful, with their defence the most egregious offender.

The Oilers’ 3-0 win on Thursday was fuelled by two power-play goals, which is indicative of how important the man advantage has been to Edmonton’s recent sugar high. During the win streak the Oilers’ power play has seven goals. Furthermore, the Oilers have had an unsustainably high 13.38 shooting percentage at all strengths, the second highest in the NHL in the last 10 days. Edmonton is riding special teams and puck luck to victory.

The most interesting statistic about the Oilers might be that, as brilliant as the top six forwards are, they have been essentially one-way players during the win streak. McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are allowing a 3.05 expected goals against per 60 minutes, which they slightly outpace offensively. In Shots Against per 60 minutes, the duo is conceding 33.49 per hour, which is so bad that if an entire team allowed that it would be the worst in the NHL. Leon Draisaitl and Kailer Yamamoto are even worse in shots against per hour, but they fare better in expected goals against.

The Maple Leafs are a worthy adversary. In that same five-game span, the Leafs have not just won four of their last five, but they are thriving at 5-on-5, unlike Edmonton. In their last five games Toronto ranks in the top 10 in expected goals against and high-danger chances created.

Toronto can match Edmonton in speed and they have two star-studded forward lines that can push the Edmonton defencemen back in transition. And they can expose them on the weak side on the cycle. When McDavid and Drasaitl lines sag in transition defence or mishandle the puck, Toronto has the personnel to cash in.

Oilers goaltender Mike Smith is a concern because he has been outstanding in his return, and so is Auston Matthews’ lingering wrist injury. But as fun and exciting as the Oilers are, this degree of success is a bubble. And it is about to pop.

Pick: Maple Leafs -110

Montreal Canadiens-Winnipeg Jets
Saturday, Feb. 27 – 10 PM ET

It was a tough debut for the NHL’s Jekyll and Hyde team. A 6-3 loss is clearly not the start new coach Dominique Ducharme had in mind. Were there any positives from Thursday to be gleaned?

Well, the Canadiens notched two goals off the rush where Joel Armia was the recipient of passes that caught the shaky Winnipeg defence behind the cutting Montreal forward. The Philip Danault line with Tomas Tatar and Brendan Gallagher also demonstrated signs of vibrancy, accruing five shots at 5-on-5 and 12 shots attempts. That is the good news.

The bad news is everything else. Petulant discipline. Lackadaisical defensive coverage. Inadvisable puck management. Odious goaltending. The Canadiens are winless in their last four games, and if they are not careful, they will forfeit their tenuous grasp on the final postseason spot in the North Division.

But the gap in the numbers between the Canadiens and Jets is too big to ignore. The Canadiens rank first in expected goals and the Jets are last. And that isn’t just January colouring February in a rosy shade. If the Feb. 4 loss to Ottawa was the start of the tailspin, the Canadiens still rank second in the NHL in expected goals and high-danger chances in that time frame. Winnipeg ranks last.

Winnipeg has received elite goaltending, but presumably, Montreal will start the better goaltender on Saturday – Jake Allen. With the new coach behind the bench, shoring up discipline issues should be first order of business because if the Canadiens can keep this game 5-on-5, they stand a good chance of snapping out of their funk.

Pick: Canadiens -110