Maturing adolescents discard and adopt different personalities like reptiles with their skin. Well, metamorphoses occur in hockey as well. Finding which identity is forced and which works is a process. Nothing is static. Everything is up for grabs. 

Currently, the Edmonton Oilers and Connor McDavid feel indomitable, and the Minnesota Wild rank fifth in their division. But if we bettors can anticipate anything, it is that the worm will turn on both many times over.

Minnesota Wild at Detroit Red Wings
Saturday, October 29 – 7:00PM ET 

First impressions can be misleading, and if they calcify, they can inform bad decision-making. Nevertheless, I haven’t loved what I’ve seen from the Red Wings so far this season—as in, they might stink.

The Red Wings rank bottom ten in expected goals and high-danger chances percentage. They rank 8th worst in goals against. Their three wins so far have come against Montreal, New Jersey, and Anaheim, but in their win against the Devils, the Red Wings still were outshot 39-22. 

To be fair, the Red Wings are missing important personnel (Tyler Bertuzzi, Jakub Vrana, and Robby Fabbri). But judging from who will suit up for them on Saturday, their contest against Minnesota looks unpropitious. The Wild present a host of matchup problems for Detroit that will be difficult to overcome.   

For example, Detroit plays man-on-man defence, but we just saw Minnesota adroitly dissect a much stingier Ottawa Senators’ man-on-man coverage on Thursday. Will the Red Wings be able to stick with their man when Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello run set plays in the offensive zone? That Wild duo can be slippery, especially on give-and-go’s that have Kaprizov roll into space. Not helping things is that Detroit starts at a disadvantage, trotting out four left-handed centers, which gives the opponent the edge when the draw is set on the right dot.

On Thursday night, we saw two Detroit forecheckers get caught deep in the offensive zone multiple times, allowing the Boston Bruins to attack three Red Wings skaters with a four-man attack. The Wild love to involve their defencemen on the attack off the rush and on their rotation on the cycle. If Detroit is a step behind, Minnesota could explode offensively.

At this juncture, the advanced stats for Minnesota are unimpressive. The Wild defensive coverage and goaltending were atrocious to start the season, and in their first three games they allowed 20 combined goals. But over the subsequent four, they have only allowed 10. Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has been better, and Minnesota isn’t conceding the slot and blue line as easily. To evoke Bob Wiley: baby steps.

The Wild have traditionally been awesome at home, but they started off the season losing their first three games in their own barn. Of late, they have found their game on the road. I like Minnesota to throttle a wobbly Detroit on Saturday.

Pick: Wild -160

After the Minnesota Wild finish off a successful penalty kill, coach Dean Evason treats himself by utilizing the Wild’s three best offensive forwards on one super line. Not surprisingly, two members of the triad are Kaprizov and Zuccarello. But the third band member is Matthew Boldy, who has played a total of 60 NHL games (including playoffs). 

The 2019 NHL Draft class was a good one, and Boldy is one of its standouts. Design your ideal power forward and he might well resemble Boldy. The Massachusetts native has outstanding hands. When he parks himself in the low slot, he can outmuscle his opponents and deflect pucks and corral rebounds. He has a hard shot and sets up on the right flank of the power play, providing the option for a cross-seam pass from Zuccarello on the left flank. 

Plus, Boldy’s skills pair nicely with his tenacity as he is a beast along the boards. His puck protection and puck battle skills make him an able playmaker and forechecker. Currently playing with Marcus Foligno and Marco Rossi, he can grind below the goal line and try to make the tight play in the low slot.

Against the Bruins on Thursday night, the Red Wings consistently struggled to exit the zone, finding themselves hopelessly hemmed in. The Red Wings rank fifth worst in shots against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Boldy ranks fourth on the Wild in shots and has collected 45 points in 54 regular season games in his NHL career. A willing shooter is about to face an accommodating foe.

Before Thursday night against Ottawa, Boldy had 16 shots in his previous three games. Against Ottawa, he was held shotless, and he has recorded zero points in his past two games. Boldy is primed for a monster game.

In individual expected goals and high-danger chances, Boldy ranks top three among Minnesota players. I think the Senators’ game is a blip, and Boldy is ascending. Boldy generates at 5-on-5 and can strike on the power play. I think he accumulates at least one point on Saturday.  

Pick: Matt Boldy O 0.5 points -136


Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames
Saturday, October 29 – 10:00 PM ET 

If you didn’t catch it, the Edmonton Oilers and Chicago Blackhawks’ game on Thursday night was a doozy. There were 17 total power-play opportunities. Goaltender Jack Campbell allowed five goals and won. And Connor McDavid, who has fitfully posted points this season, went nuclear, notching a hat trick and an assist. 

The cardinal sin when playing the Oilers is, “Thou shall not give Edmonton too many chances on the power play.” To the surprise of no one, the Oilers currently rank second in the NHL on the man advantage; most likely, they will be first in short order. 

Playing the Oilers twice in the span of four days, the St. Louis Blues limited Edmonton to two goals and three power plays combined. The Flames are on the fringe of the top ten most-penalized teams, so showing discipline will be paramount against the Oilers. The way the Flames realize this aspiration will be through diligent puck management and the forecheck. In other words, if you have the puck, it is less likely you’ll be playing down a man. 

The Oilers are deadly off the rush, and in the same way, oxygen makes materials burn more rapidly. A turnover makes the Edmonton counterattack more combustible. Look for Calgary to avoid that scenario by simplifying. 

Instead of forcing the east-west pass, the Flames will want to get the puck deep and run the Oilers around in their own end. The Flames won’t dawdle on their breakout; they will want to push the puck north and quickly. The Oilers can lose their man in the defensive coverage, sometimes forgetting about the weak-side defenceman. I expect the Flames to use the low-to-high play and lots of double-stack screens.

Ultimately, there are several reasons to be bullish on the Flames’ prospects. First, Saturday is the Oilers’ third game in four nights and the last game of a road trip. Both Wednesday and Thursday were hard-fought contests. Calgary traditionally plays well at home under coach Darryl Sutter, and the Flames, who haven’t played since Tuesday, will have fresh legs.

Second, while the advanced stats favour the Oilers slightly, Calgary has had a comically hard schedule to start the season and it has a 5-1 record. The Oilers have had a lot of tough matchups too, but their schedule has been softer than the Flames’, with Edmonton getting Vancouver and Chicago in the first month.

Finally, if Stuart Skinner plays on Saturday against Calgary’s Jacob Markstrom, the goaltending facet is probably a wash. But if presumptive starter Campbell plays, Edmonton is at a disadvantage, as Campbell has the ninth worst Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) this season among goaltenders with four or more games played. Against Chicago, Campbell was very shaky. In this episode of the Battle of Alberta, I think the more well-rested guys playing at home burn brighter. 

 Pick: Flames -142