2022 NL Central Preview: Who stands out in what may be baseball's weakest division?

At this time just over a month ago, it didn’t look like we were going to make it to an early April start to the season. Fresh off the latest round of failed collective bargaining agreement negotiations, commissioner Rob Manfred announced MLB was cancelling the first two series of the season and pushing back Opening Day a week.

The more days that went by without the league and MLB Players Association reaching a deal, the more games that would be cancelled. Over the course of a few long days, it looked like no longer like a question of when we would get baseball in 2022, but if.

Then, somehow, someway, on the 99th day of the lockout, they figured things out. The season – all 162 games no less – was saved. And we couldn’t be happier.

With Opening Day just three days away, here is a team-by-team look at the National League Central division, which figures to be one of baseball's weakest.

Cincinnati Reds

2021 Record: 83-79

Key Additions: OF Tommy Pham, P Mike Minor, P Justin Dunn, P Hunter Strickland

Key Losses: C Tucker Barnhart, 3B Eugenio Suarez, OF Jesse Winker, OF Nick Castellanos, P Amir Garrett, P Sonny Gray, P Michael Lorenzen, P Wade Miley

The Reds made the playoffs in 2020 and finished runner-up in the wild card race last season, but management didn’t appear sold on this group as a contender for 2022. They either traded or let a number of their veteran players walk, losing 14.5 wins in fWAR with the departures of Tucker Barnhart, Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker, Nick Castellanos, Sonny Gray and Wade Miley. For a team whose off-season additions were headlined by Tommy Pham and Mike Minor, that’s a lot to lose.

The Reds have some interesting pieces in the lineup. Rookie of the Year winner Jonathan India and catcher Tyler Stephenson look like cornerstones. Outfielder Aristides Aquino hit 14 home runs as a rookie in August of 2019 but has just 12 total in the two seasons since and is about to turn 28. Canadian Joey Votto had his most productive season in years, riding a mid-season swing change to 36 home runs and a .266/375/.563 slash line.

The case for: The Reds finished fourth in runs scored in 2021 and a bounce-back season from Mike Moustakas (.653 OPS last season) would go a long way toward making up for some of the off-season losses.

The case against: In November, general manager Nick Krall hinted cost-cutting could be on the horizon and that’s exactly what happened during the winter. When management decides to open the floodgates one way or another, there’s usually a reason. The Reds will have their work cut out for them to replicate their competitiveness from each of the past two seasons.

Chicago Cubs

2021 Record: 71-91

Key Additions: C Yan Gomes, SS Andrelton Simmons, INF Jonathan Villar, OF Seiya Suzuki, OF Clint Frazier, P Marcus Stroman, P Wade Miley, P Chris Martin

Key Losses: INF Matt Duffy, P Zach Davies

The Cubs went 505-365 with a World Series title and five playoff appearances during their run from 2015 to 2020. But everything changed last season.

Or, rather, things reverted back to how they’d been for decades. Regardless of how you want to look at it, the Cubs weren’t very good. Chicago traded a big chunk of their remaining core from the 2016 title with Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and Javier Baez all finding new homes last season. As of now, only Willson Contreras, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Heyward remain.

But the Cubs did spend during the off-season, headlined by a five-year deal to star Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki and a three-year pact with right-hander Marcus Stroman.

The case for: Suzuki hit 38 home runs and drove in 88 while slashing .317/.433/.636 for the Hiroshima Carp last season in Japan. If he can put up numbers anywhere close to that, the $85 million Chicago owes him will look like a steal. But players who get big deals off performance in overseas leagues are always hard to predict. Both Shogo Akiyama and Ha-Seong Kim have struggled to adjust to MLB pitching. Then again, Darin Ruf has a .900 OPS in two seasons since returning to the majors and, well, Shohei Ohtani hasn’t done too bad either.

The case against: After the exodus leading up to the trade deadline, the Cubs finished the season 20-35. They shouldn’t be as bad in 2022 but it’s hard to see the Cubs being ready to contend again right away. The starting rotation is a big question mark after Hendricks and Stroman and it looks like manager David Ross is going to have a lot of mixing and matching to do with the lineup on a day-to-day basis.

Milwaukee Brewers

2021 Record: 95-67

Key Additions: C Pedro Severino, INF/OF Mike Brosseau, OF Hunter Renfroe, OF Andrew McCutchen

Key Losses: C Manny Pina, INF Eduardo Escobar, OF Avisail Garcia, OF Jackie Bradley Jr., P Hunter Strickland, P Brett Anderson

Pitching, pitching and more pitching. That’s the story with the Brewers.

Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes leads the rotation. Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta, both All-Stars in 2021, are right behind him. And having Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer at the back end is quite the luxury when you consider they each turned in ERAs in the low 3.00s and are under the age of 30. Oh, and Milwaukee has one of the best setup man-closer combinations in the business with Devin Williams and Josh Hader.

The Crew was third in team ERA (3.50) last season and run prevention should be their M.O. again this year.

The case for: Christian Yelich won the NL MVP Award in 2018 and finished runner-up the year after. It’s been a different story the last two seasons and he’s combined for just 21 home runs in 175 combined games with a slash line of .234/.360/.392. Milwaukee ranked 23rd in team slugging last season and Yelich straightening himself out should boost that number. With the rate they figure to get hitters out at, an improved offence would make the Brewers scary.

The case against: Despite making the postseason in each of the past three years, the Brewers have combined for just one playoff win over that stretch. Milwaukee was shut out in back-to-back games during the NLDS to the eventual champion Atlanta Braves and scored a total of six runs in their four-game defeat. They’re done a lot of winning in recent years, but will need to be better when the lights are brightest.

Pittsburgh Pirates

2021 Record: 61-101

Key Additions: C Roberto Perez, 1B Daniel Vogelbach, P Heath Hembree, Jose Quintana

Key Losses: C Jacob Stallings, INF Colin Moran, P Chad Kuhl, P Steven Brault

The Pirates had the third-worst team ERA (5.08) last season. They scored the fewest runs (609), had the third-worst offensive fWAR and were sixth-worst in attendance. So, no, there wasn’t much to be happy about from last season.

While signs of the future are starting to arrive, not much seems certain. Former first-round pick Ke’Bryan Hayes missed a large chunk of the season with a wrist injury and struggled to hit for the kind of power he did in 2020. Bryan Reynolds was an All-Star in 2021 but had been the subject of trade rumours last year and is headed to arbitration over a $625,000 filing split. Six-foot-7 shortstop prospect Oneil Cruz was called up by the team at the end of last season but has just six games under his belt in Triple-A.

The case for: It’s going to be hard to judge the Pirates based on wins and losses. Getting clarity on their future pieces should be the only goal for 2022. And hey, only one team can say they play at beautiful PNC Park!

The case against: Going to arbitration with your best player over such a small amount – relatively speaking when it comes to MLB salaries – is an interesting choice. As of now, the Pirates have the lowest 26-man roster payroll of just under 25 million. As the saying goes, you get what you pay for.

St. Louis Cardinals

2021 Record: 90-72

Key Additions: 1B Albert Pujols, OF Corey Dickerson, P Steven Matz, P Drew VerHagen, Packy Naughton

Key Losses: INF Matt Carpenter, P Carlos Martinez, P Kwang-hyun Kim, P Andrew Miller, P Jon Lester, P J.A. Happ

The Cardinals shocked the baseball world when they parted ways with manager Mike Shildt, who had guided the club to a 252-199 record since taking over the job in 2018. Shildt finished third in NL Manager of the Year voting but was let go because of “philosophical differences.” So in comes Oliver Marmol, who has been with the club at the big league level since 2017. Considering the success of the past regime, there will be a lot of pressure from Day 1.

It also figures to be the final season for a pair of Cardinal legends as both Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols have each said 2022 will be their last season. Sure, Pujols only re-joined the team for the first time in more than a decade last month, but it feels like he’s back where he belongs. With starter Adam Wainwright’s days also numbered, the Cardinals competing for a World Series with three players they won it with in 2006 would be a fun storyline.

The case for: The Cardinals have turned in winning seasons 14 years in a row and always seem to knock on the door one way or the other. The lineup is deep and the bullpen is talented. But…

The case against: The rotation is already being hit with injuries with Alex Reyes and Jack Flaherty each set to miss time to begin the season. That likely means Adam Wainwright gets the start on Opening Day. He was tremendous in 2021. He’s also going to turn 41 this season.