Patrick Mahomes was undefeated in September entering Week 2 of the NFL season.
After leading the Kansas City Chiefs to a 35-24 lead over the Baltimore Ravens in the third quarter on Sunday Night Football, Mahomes appeared primed to improve to 12-0 in the opening month.
Instead, it was Lamar Jackson and the Ravens that pulled off a stunning comeback win in prime time.
Mahomes went 19-of-25 for 286 yards and three touchdowns to start the game.
One mistake completely turned the tide.
Leading by 11 points with the ball at midfield and 2:15 left in the third quarter, Mahomes was intercepted by Tavon Young on a desperation third-down throw.
It was the first interception of his career in the month of September.
On another day and against a lesser opponent, Mahomes and the Chiefs might have overcome that mistake. However, there would be no Mahomes Magic on this night.
Baltimore outscored Kansas City 12-0 the rest of the way to complete the double-digit comeback and hand Mahomes his first September loss.
It wasn’t the biggest comeback in the NFL on Sunday, but it was certainly the most memorable.
Here is the Morning Coffee for Monday. Sept. 20, 2021.
Ravens stun Chiefs for prime-time win
After a pair of interceptions in the first quarter, Jackson settled down and played his best football with the game on the line in the fourth quarter.
Jackson recorded his fifth career game with at least 200 pass yards and 100 rush yards, scoring three touchdowns for his first head-to-head win versus Mahomes.
Meanwhile, the Baltimore defence stepped up with a couple of crucial stops, including the third-quarter interception as well as a fumble recovery on the Chiefs’ final drive.
It was that much more fun to watch that comeback play out knowing it was another classic battle between the sharps and the betting public.
If you had paid close enough attention to the numbers heading into Sunday Night Football, the lack of movement might have caught your attention.
Kansas City opened as a 2.5-point favourite but was quickly bet to -3.5. That was expected. What happened after that was not.
Despite the fact that more than 90 per cent of the tickets at most sports books were on the Chiefs, Kansas City flashed at -4 at some spots for only a few hours during the week, before settling at -3.5 and staying that way all the way up until kickoff.
The fact that number didn’t move at any point on Sunday despite the public being all over the Chiefs was a major red flag for all of us who were paying attention.
It was an obvious signal towards the sharps versus the public narrative.
That split made the Ravens’ fourth-quarter comeback that much more fun to watch unfold.
Performance of the week(s)
Tom Brady threw for 276 yards and five touchdowns in a 48-25 win over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. That includes a pair of touchdown passes to tight end Rob Gronkowski.
Don’t look now, but the 44-year-old Brady leads the league with nine touchdown passes, while the 32-year-old Gronkowski leads the league with four touchdown receptions.
Per ESPN Stats & Info, the Buccaneers are the first team in NFL history to score at least 30 points and win nine straight games across the regular season and playoffs.
Brady’s Patriots scored at least 30 points and won eight straight twice, in 2007 and in 2010-11.
Tampa Bay outscored Atlanta 20-0 in the fourth quarter to cover as a 13.5-point favourite.
After opening the season at +1200 to win NFL regular season MVP, Brady is down to +700 as the third choice to win that award behind Mahomes (+500) and Kyler Murray (+500).
While it was nothing like Week 1, NFL underdogs delivered again in Week 2.
After a 12-4 ATS start including nine outright wins in Week 1, NFL dogs went 8-6 ATS with five outright wins on Sunday.
The Tennessee Titans pulled off the biggest upset as a +245 money line underdog.
The Titans trailed the Seattle Seahawks 24-9 at the half and 30-16 two minutes into the fourth quarter.
Tennessee outscored Seattle 17-0 the rest of the way for the 33-30 win in overtime.
The Seahawks were 52-0 when leading by at least 15 points at home entering Week 2, per the NFL on CBS. They’re now 52-1 following a 33-30 loss to the Titans in overtime on Sunday.
Derrick Henry rumbled for 237 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns, including 187 scrimmage yards in the second half and overtime.
Seattle as a team had 164 scrimmage yards over that same span.
While the number varied depending on the spot, I saw the Titans at as long as +1000 to win live when they trailed by 14 in the fourth quarter.
While Tennessee pulled off the biggest upset, the Las Vegas Raiders were a close second in that category.
The Raiders beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 26-17 as a +235 money line underdog.
The Ravens were a +165 money line underdog.
The Minnesota Vikings have had a chance to win in the final seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime in each of the first two weeks of the season. So far, they’re 0-2.
Greg Joseph missed a 37-yard field goal for the win in the final seconds of regulation as the Vikings fell short in a 34-33 loss to the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.
That loss came on the heels of a 27-24 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 in which Minnesota was approaching field goal territory in overtime when a Dalvin Cook fumble ultimately led to a game-winning field goal the other way.
Minnesota is now 0-2 with a minus-four point differential.
Every other 0-2 team has been outscored by at least 15 points so far this season.
Now the Vikings return home for back-to-back games against the Seattle Seahawks and the Cleveland Browns. It isn’t a stretch to think that Minnesota will be in tough to avoid an 0-4 start.
The one that got away
The Chicago Bears won but failed to cover after nearly blowing it late versus the Bengals.
Chicago led Cincinnati 20-3 with less than five minutes left in regulation.
Joe Burrow connected with Ja’Marr Chase for a 42-yard touchdown pass with 4:39 left in regulation.
After Justin Fields threw an interception deep in his own end on the ensuing possession, Burrow threw a seven-yard touchdown pass to Tee Higgins to cut the deficit to three.
After being held to three points through the first 55 minutes of the game, the Bengals scored 14 points in 60 seconds to back door cover or push depending on whether you got them at +3.
That’s a tough one for anybody that thought they had a win locked up late in the fourth quarter but ultimately pushed.