We are on to round two at the US Open.

After watching a pair of top-10 seeds go down in the first round in Simona Halep and Stefanos Tsitsipas, we won’t be taking anything for granted backing the betting favourites on Day Three of the tournament.

Felix Auger-Aliassime is -275 to beat Jack Draper in the second round.

Rebecca Marino is -210 to beat Daria Snigur.

At the same time, all eyes will be on the most notable underdog on the board at FanDuel tonight.

When I wrote my Tuesday column, Serena Williams was +172 to advance to the third round at FanDuel.

As of this morning, that number has shifted all the way to +205 at FanDuel.

That number implies just a 32.8 per cent chance that Serena continues her run at the US Open tonight.

Can Serena beat the odds again and advance to the third round?

Here’s the Morning Coffee for Wednesday August 31st, 2022.

Serena An Underdog Versus Kontaveit

Before the tournament started, I wrote about looking for an opportunity to fade Williams at the US Open.

I outlined how anybody that did exactly that on the road to Flushing Meadows was able to capitalize on some quality numbers betting against Williams, which included getting Emma Raducanu at -152 money line versus Williams at the Cincinnati Masters.

I also wrote about how despite being tempted by the price I wasn’t going to bet against Williams in the first round.

Despite some notable lapses, Williams persevered and recorded a 6-3, 6-3 victory over Danka Kovinic.

Now she will face a much tougher test in the second round at the US Open, which brings us to an intriguing decision.

Anett Kontaveit rolled to a 6-3, 6-0 win over Jaqueline Cristian in the first round.

Kontaveit is +3600 to win the US Open title at FanDuel, slightly higher on the board than Williams at +4000.

In other words, after taking care of business versus inferior competition in the first round, this will be a much tougher challenge for Williams and a potential opportunity to fade her.

Unfortunately, if you haven’t done that already then you are not going to like the price change we have seen at FanDuel.

In just over 24 hours, Kontaveit went from -205 to -255 to beat Williams tonight.

While I’d like to bet Kontaveit to win the match, I don’t want to do it at that number, which left me looking for an alternate option.

I found one that I like.

I bet Kontaveit to win tonight’s match in straight sets at +105.

Williams hasn’t gone three sets in a match since losing to Harmony Tan at Wimbledon.

She didn’t win a set in either of her previous two losses, including against Belinda Bencic in Toronto and versus Emma Raducanu in Cincinnati.

I won’t argue that Williams doesn’t have the potential to win this match, or at least push it to three sets.

However, Monday’s first round match and the ensuing celebration that took place after Serena won really did feel like a special moment, and I’m not sure how much Williams will have left as she steps back on the court less than 48 hours later.

With Kontaveit to win in straight sets at +105, I have a wager on the way I think the match will play out at plus-money in pocket, with a chance to react to whatever happens tonight betting the match live at FanDuel.

Best Bets For Wednesday’s MLB Slate

It's been a weird start to the week for yours truly when it comes to my FanDuel Best Bets.

First on Monday, I bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 with Tony Gonsolin as the scheduled starter against the Miami Marlins.

Gonsolin was scratched, I cashed out the bet and ended up on the St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 and the Milwaukee Brewers -1.5.

Both of those plays won, but I didn’t tweet them out before game time, which left me a little disappointed.

Then on Tuesday, I gave out the Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 against the Miami Marlins with Shane McClanahan as the scheduled starter.

For the second day in a row, the starting pitcher I bet on was scratched and didn’t pitch.

Unlike on Monday, I didn’t have a chance to cash out before first pitch, so I was fortunate that the Rays delivered with a 7-2 win without their ace.

Unfortunately for yours truly, Max Fried ran into some trouble against the Colorado Rockies and the Atlanta Braves blew a 2-0 lead in a 3-2 loss.

If you’re keeping track at home, the Rockies have registered wins over both Max Scherzer and Fried over the past three days.

After a 1-2 start to the week, I’ll need Kontaveit to deliver against Williams in order to get back to .500.

That isn’t my only recommendation for Wednesday.

After letting me down on Tuesday, I’m going right back to Atlanta -1.5 against the Rockies tonight.

The Braves were one of the hottest teams in baseball before dropping back-to-back games to close out their weekend series against the St. Louis Cardinals, and they should be motivated heading into tonight’s game after dropping three in a row.

Atlanta is still just three games back of the New York Mets for first place in the National League East.

Kyle Wright is 16-5 with a 2.99 ERA this season, and Atlanta has won each of his last three starts against the Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros and Pittsburgh Pirates.

Wright gave up just three earned runs in 19 innings over that span.

With the Rockies turning to Ryan Feltner and his 5.87 ERA tonight, it’s an opportunity for the Braves to bounce back big time.

I’ll make Atlanta -1.5 -144 my FanDuel Best Bet for Wednesday.

Meanwhile, there is one more obvious mismatch that I am targeting for Wednesday’s MLB slate.

The St. Louis Cardinals are 13-4 since August 14th.

They have covered the run line in 10 of their 13 wins over that span.

Coming off a 5-1 loss to the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday, the Cardinals will be looking to avoid dropping back-to-back games for the first time since July 26th in the rubber match in Cincinnati tonight. 

Mike Minor is 3-10 with a 6.10 ERA this season.

He’s 0-7 with a with a 6.37 ERA in eight home starts.

The Cardinals have had their way with left-handed pitching all season, so as long as Jose Quintana does what he was acquired to do on the mound, St. Louis should bounce back with a win by two runs or more tonight.

I’ll lock in Cardinals -1.5 -142 as a FanDuel Best Bet.

Finally, the Los Angeles Dodgers own the best record in the majors at 90-38.

They’re a +132 underdog for tonight’s game against the New York Mets.

Jacob deGrom will get the start for New York, so I understand why they are a home favourite.

However, the Mets have won only three of his first five starts, scoring two runs or fewer in three of those five games.

LA will counter with Tyler Anderson, who is 13-2 with a 2.69 ERA this season. 

The Dodgers have won nine of Anderson’s last 10 starts dating back to June.

It isn’t often that we get the best team in baseball as an underdog at FanDuel.

I’ll play the Dodgers at +132 on the money line as one of my FanDuel Best Bets for Wednesday.