Chase Elliott is $1 million richer after he won the NASCAR All-Star Race.

The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports returned to Victory Lane on Wednesday for the first time since he won at Charlotte on May 27th.

While it was a special moment for Elliott, who joined his father Bill as a winner of the annual All-Star race, no points were awarded and the victory won’t count towards the Cup Series standings.

Apparently, odds makers didn’t put much stock in to the win, either.

The NASCAR Cup Series is headed to Texas Motor Speedway for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 this Sunday.

Elliott opened at +850 to win outright – the sixth-longest odds on the board.

Meanwhile, a familiar face is at the top of the board again for Sunday’s race.

Considering he was the favourite or co-favourite for the last four Cup Series races along with the NASCAR All-Star Race, it’s not a surprise to see Kevin Harvick as the consensus favourite once again this weekend.

What is surprising is just how short his number is.

Harvick is listed at +275 to win outright – the shortest pre-race number I’ve seen for any Cup Series race so far this season.

Here is a closer look at the latest odds for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500.

 

The Favourite

Kevin Harvick +275

This is just the fourth time since the restart that a driver has been listed at shorter than 4/1 odds to win a Cup Series race.

On May 20th, Harvick was +350 to win at Darlington – he finished third.

11 days later, Kyle Busch was +350 to win at Bristol – he placed fourth.

Then on June 10th, Busch was +375 to win at Martinsville – he ended up 19th.

+275 translates to a 26.7 percent implied probability that Harvick will win the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500.

While that might be a stretch, it’s important to understand why the driver of the No. 4 Ford is such a substantial favourite for Sunday’s race.

We can start with the fact that Harvick won the most recent race at Texas last November.

He’s also registered 11 straight top-10 finishes here – his second longest active streak at any track behind his 14 consecutive top-10’s at Phoenix.

Over those last 11 races at Texas, the current Cup Series points leader has posted a series-best 3.6 average finish, including three victories.

Then there is his overall performance on 1.5-mile tracks.

Over the last 10 seasons, Harvick’s 14 Cup Series wins on 1.5-mile tracks are tied with Brad Keselowski for the most among all drivers.

His 4,578 laps led on those tracks over that span are 966 more than any of his competitors.

Harvick will compete in his 700th Cup Series race on Sunday, joining Kurt Busch as the only active drivers to reach that mark.

Will he celebrate the milestone with his series-leading fifth win of the season?

The numbers certainly point to that being the most likely outcome. 

 

Next In Line

Kyle Busch +550

For the fourth time this season, Busch is coming off a runner-up finish.

This time he had to deal with the added bitterness of just missing out on $1 million.

The defending Cup Series champion is still winless this season.

Still, he’s shown he can contend and has a strong record at this track.

The 35-year-old has three career Cup Series wins at Texas, with his most recent coming in 2018.

Factor in his Xfinity and Truck Series results and his victory total at this track climbs to 16.

Busch is already threatening for the fourth-longest drought by any defending Cup Series champion over the past two decades.

Can he finally get back to Victory Lane this weekend?

Only Harvick has shorter odds to win the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500.

Denny Hamlin +575

Hamlin overcame a rough start to win this race in 2019.

Now he will attempt to double down with an opportunity to pull ahead of Harvick for the outright lead in Cup Series wins this season.

Hamlin and Harvick are currently tied with four wins each in 2020.

That likely wouldn’t be the case if Hamlin hadn’t wrecked late at Indianapolis and opened the door for Harvick to take the checkered flag.

After a rough run at Kentucky, Hamlin appeared to get back on track with a top-five finish in the NASCAR All-Star Race.

It will be interesting to see if he can carry over some momentum from that performance and contend for another outright win on Sunday.

 

Don’t Sleep On

Aric Almirola +1900

Almirola quietly pushed his way up to eighth in the Cup Series standings with seven consecutive top-10 finishes before the All-Star race.

While he’s still looking for his first win of the season, he has produced five top-five results in his last seven Cup Series starts.

Almirola has also placed in the top-10 in each of his last three starts at Texas.

His runner-up finish in the AAA Texas 500 last season is his best result at this track.

At such long odds, Almirola could be a decent value play this weekend.

At the very least, he’s definitely in play for another top-10 finish.

Erik Jones +2800

Jones has really struggled of late, finishing outside the top-20 in four of his last seven starts.

However, he’s delivered five straight top-10 finishes at Texas, including a run of three consecutive fourth-place finishes here over the past couple of years.

With time running out to make a serious push for a playoff spot, Jones will need to ramp up the urgency beginning this weekend.

While he might be a long shot to win this race outright, Jones might be another decent sleeper option to consider playing in top-10 markets.

*All Betting Information appears as listed by Bodog on Saturday July 18th, 2020.