NHL Final Four too close to call

Travis Yost

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So, who is the best team left?

It’s one question I try to answer before the start of round three every NHL postseason. Sometimes, the answer strikes me as obvious -- the 2007-2008 Detroit Red Wings were an easy choice in their final four, as were the 2009-2010 Chicago Blackhawks and 2011-2012 Los Angeles Kings. All three went on to win the Stanley Cup.

In other years, results have been mixed. The 2008-2009 Pittsburgh Penguins team never really looked the part of a Stanley Cup calibre team, yet they dispatched an incredible Detroit Red Wings team in a memorable seven-game series. And, who can forget the Tim Thomas Bruins? That team was punching uphill the whole way against a superior Vancouver team, but Thomas stole the show.

Up until this year, the one final four that left me drawing a complete blank came in the lockout-shortened season. All of Pittsburgh, Boston, Chicago, and Los Angeles had the underlying numbers of championship calibre teams – the disparities between each team were razor thin, and picking one of the four seemed nothing more than an exercise in coin-flipping.

This year feels rather similar. Each of our four remaining teams has at least one fatal flaw. The New York Rangers aren’t all that impressive at 5-on-5 – more on that in a minute. Tampa Bay’s looked weirdly ordinary in spurts during their first and second-round series, and we have already talked about special teams issues. Chicago’s dealt with some degree of shot suppression concerns during the regular season, and the goaltending isn’t a guarantee. Anaheim’s looked the most impressive of any team this post-season, but it’s impossible to ignore that their road to the Western Conference Final included a lay-up series against an out-of-their-weight-class Calgary club. 

Allow me for a moment to illustrate just how razor tight things are this season. What I’ve done is plot out each remaining team’s performance at even-strength by ScoringChance% and Corsi% -- those teams noted by way of black circle. I’ve also included other teams who have made Conference Final appearances since the 2007-2008 season. And, I’ve noted Stanley Cup winners by way of an orange circle.

Let’s see how this year’s final four stacks up:

Perhaps the most notable thing is that, like most other seasons, our final four teams have out-chanced and out-shot their opposition all season long. I do think it’s interesting that this year’s Tampa Bay team sits in the same exact position that the 2011-2012 Los Angeles Kings did after 82-games. Of course, that Kings team didn’t face staunch competition in the Conference Final or Stanley Cup – probably a different, more difficult path for this year’s Bolts team.

Tampa Bay is the most impressive team by way of Corsi% (53.8%) of the four remaining, but not by ScoringChance%. That honor goes to the Chicago Blackhawks, who earned 53.4% of scoring chances during the regular season. 

Overall, extremely little separates those two teams, at least as it pertains to 5-on-5 performance. And, really, I should say three teams – the Anaheim Ducks are right in that mix, just a slice of a percentage point lower in both departments. As a trio, their regular season performances are virtually indiscernible from one another.

The only outlier of sorts here would be the New York Rangers – they, like every other team, out-shot and out-chanced their opponents. But, they’re much closer to the baseline for ‘playoff team’ than the baseline for ‘championship’ team, and definitively pulling up the rear in our group of four.

But, allow me to play devil’s advocate for a moment. One, it’s not as if we haven’t seen a decent 5-on-5 team look great when you add an elite goaltender into the mix – the Boston Bruins did it with Tim Thomas, and Henrik Lundqvist is Vezina Trophy calibre basically every single season. Two, no matter what series the New York Rangers draw into, they’ll have the goaltending advantage. And three, the New York Rangers aren’t looking up at any truly dominant team standing in their path.

If you force a pick out of me, I like the Chicago Blackhawks to win it all. I say that with virtually zero confidence, but full excitement as to how wild the Stanley Cup Playoffs are about to get.