For the first time since 2007, the PGA Championship returns to Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Okla., this week. 

Golf’s second major of the season brings us a loaded field with contenders and compelling storylines left, right and centre. 

Chatter around golf circles seem to come back to two places this week. The winds are expected to play a factor. And the smaller-than-tour-average greens are protected by bunkers and runoffs instead of thick rough, which will significantly emphasize a player’s short game. 

With that in mind, I’m hunting golfers that can dial it in on approach but also get it up-and-down when needed. 

With the size of the greens being so small, I’m putting less of an emphasis on putting this week. 

Instead of breaking down just one player this week, I wanted to take you all through my card. 

I’ll highlight my plays and display how many “units” I’ll be placing on each wager. 

A unit is the dollar amount placed on a wager, with the dollar amount remaining consistent on each bet.

So if you are someone that usually puts $10 on every bet, and you put $5 on a wager, that would be a 0.5 unit play. 

I have a few names circled with great value in the Finish Position markets, two former major champions with incredibly long outright numbers that have me intrigued and a few quick hits in the outright market at the end. 

With all that in mind, let’s go through my card for this week’s PGA Championship and deploy some units! 

Corey Conners Top 20 +220 (0.75 units / 0.25 units +5500 outright) 

Conners has finished inside the Top 20 five times in his last six majors. 

One of the better pure ball-strikers on tour, this course should give Conners a lot of chances to score this week. 

Off the tee, the Canadian is about as solid as it gets. He has gained strokes off the tee in 32 consecutive events. 

If he can make that a 33rd consecutive event, he will have ample opportunities with wedges into these greens while other players scramble around these tricky runoffs fighting for par. 

Conners has also gained strokes around the green in two of his last three events, and statistically is having one of the best seasons around the green in his career. 

It wouldn’t shock me to see him in the mix on Sunday, and think there is just enough value on him to win the tournament at at +5500 to deploy 0.25 units on it. 

Russell Henley Top 20 +300 (0.5 units / 0.2 units +10000 outright)  

Russell Henley is laying one heck of a blueprint. 

After struggling with the driver earlier this year, the 33-year-old has gained strokes off the tee in three straight events and has gained on approach in nine of his 10 tournaments in 2022. 

Henley hasn’t lost strokes tee-to-green since the 2021 BMW Championship. 

Henley’s main issue is the putter, where he has lost strokes in three of his last four tournaments. 

However, Henley is a streaky putter who will go through bad spells and snap out of it for a few weeks and has shown the ability to roll the rock on a number of occasions. 

Last year he was in the mix at the U.S. Open, and I believe his game translates well to this style of course. 

Taking him to crack the Top 20 at +300 is a good price, and I’m sprinkling on the outright market just in case. 

Harold Varner III Top 20 +380 (.75 units / .25 units +12000 outright) 

2022 has been the best season of Harold Varner III’s career and it’s not even close. 

He ranks seventh on Tour in birdie or better percentage, is eighth in three-putt avoidance and ranks around the Top 30 on approach with a wedge in his hand. 

Varner III has gained at least 2.30 strokes tee-to-green in five-consecutive events and has done nothing but post great results since March. 

In his last five events, Varner III has finished inside the Top 20 three times, including a T3 at RBC Heritage and a T6 at the Players. 

Ian Poulter Top 40 +360 (.50 units) 

Some people just live for the big moments. 

Ian Poulter has gained a total of at least 2.00 strokes in six of the last seven major championships he’s played in. 

Aside from the 2020 U.S. Open, Poulter has landed inside the Top 40 in six of his last seven majors. 

While his game isn't the sharpest at the moment, I’m willing to roll the dice on a player that’s looking to let people know he’s still got some game left. 

Poulter was not eligible for the Masters this season for the first time since 2017. 

In 2017, he bounced back with a T2 at the PLAYERS, a T14 at the Open Championship and a T22 at the PGA Championship. 

Five years later, I’m betting on him doing the same thing, but this time I just need him to T40. 

OUTRIGHT DARTS 

Brooks Koepka Top 10 +390 (1.5 units / 1 unit +4800 outright) 

Let’s tackle the more reasonable wager here, and one that I really like. 

When it comes to majors, Brooks Koepka is that dude. 

Since his last major win, the 2019 PGA Championship, Koepka has played in nine majors. 

He has finished inside the Top 10 in six of those. 

Unlike most golfers, Koepka doesn’t foreshadow his good results. 

In fact, it just might be the opposite. 

Last year he missed three consecutive cuts before picking up a win in Phoenix at the Waste Management Open. 

After that, an injury kept him out sometime before he returned for the Masters, missed that cut, and missed the cut in his next event before picking up a T2… and the PGA Championship. 

Koepka appeared to be in great form heading into this year’s Masters before an icy cold putter prevented him from making the weekend. 

Five weeks later, Koepka is back for another major despite not teeing it up in a Tour event since the Masters. 

I expect Koepka to bounce back this week in a big way, and I love getting him at +390 to T10 and think +4800 on him to win is an excellent play. 

*UPDATE: Bryson DeChambeau has withdrawn from the PGA Championship due to a hand injury.*

Bryson DeChambeau +12000 (.35 units) 

All right, let’s get weird. 

DeChambeau hasn’t played since the Masters, he has missed the cut in three straight stroke play events, and his Strokes Gained: Total has been in the negatives in six of his last seven tournaments. 

Oh, and he’s just over four weeks removed from wrist surgery. 

And yet, he is still a 29-year-old, a former U.S. Open champion that could pop back into relevancy at any moment. 

I’ll be honest with you, I have no idea how Bryson will play this week. 

I question if even he knows how well he’ll hit it this week, if he plays. 

Because of that, I’m avoiding him in every other golf wagering format possible. 

He could miss the cut by several shots this week, and if you ask people in the golf community, they’ll more than likely say the same thing. 

However, if he does play, he’s got a chance. 

And at 100-1, with his talent, I’m going to take a flyer on it every single time. 

 

QUICK HITS 

Jordan Spieth +1700 (1 unit) 

It’s remarkable how well Spieth has hit the ball lately. 

He's gained at least 10 strokes tee-to-green in three of his last four events.

He won the RBC Heritage despite losing 2.55 strokes with the putter. 

Speaking of that putter, it’s been atrocious this year, but he’s gained strokes with it twice since February and finished second both times. 

This course will ask players to be creative, something he shines at and could separate him from the field. 

If he putts well at all this week… watch out. 

Hideki Matsuyama +2700 (0.3 units) 

Already with two wins this season, Matsuyama is one of the best players on the planet; however, some nagging injuries have kept him out of the mix these past few months. 

He should contend this week, and +2700 is too long for a player of his calibre coming off a T3 last week at the AT&T Byron Nelson. 

Max Homa +5500 (0.5 units) 

A star-in-the-making, Homa will look to contend this week at a major for the first time of his career. 

Homa has gained on approach in eight consecutive events and has proven he can get hot with the putter to unlock his winning potential. 

I liked this number better at +6500 when I bet it last week, but +5500 makes sense, too. 

Tiger Woods +7000 (0.25 units) 

Tiger Woods is playing in a golf tournament this week. 

I'm betting him to win. 

No further questions. 

Billy Horschel +9000 (0.2 units) 

In the midst of a career-best season, Billy Horschel could find himself in contention at a major this season, and why not the PGA? 

After ending 2021 at No. 23 on the Offical World Golf Rankings, Horschel has climbed to No. 14 this year, sandwiched between Sam Burns (13 - +4800) and Louis Oosthuizen (15 - +7500). 

A 90-1 bet is simply too much value for me to pass on.