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TSN Raptors Reporter

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TORONTO – For at least a few minutes it didn’t seem too outrageous to think that this could be a relatively quiet summer around the NBA, by NBA standards anyway.

It was the eve of free agency. Kyrie Irving had just shocked the world by doing the sensible thing and opting into the final season of his contract instead of leaving $30 million on the table. Good for him, even though the alternative sure would have been fun.

This year’s free agent class wasn’t lined up to be the greatest. The Hawks-Spurs swap was interesting, with Atlanta adding all-star guard Dejounte Murray to pair with Trae Young and the Spurs finally embracing the tank. But one of the league’s most pressing questions was whether the Knicks could clear enough salary to overpay Jalen Brunson. Ho-hum.

Well, so much for that. In one fell swoop, the league became delightfully crazy again.

On Thursday afternoon, mere hours before the free agency negotiation window was set to open, it was reported that Kevin Durant had requested a trade out of Brooklyn.

When a superstar and one of the top-five players in the game suddenly becomes available, that’s considered an actionable event in the NBA. Given their track record, you can absolutely expect the Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster-led Raptors to at least kick the tires, but they won’t be alone.

If you’re one of the league’s other 29 teams and you’re not currently preparing your best offer and dialling up Nets general manager Sean Marks – assuming you haven’t already – what are you even doing?

Toronto is as well positioned as any team in basketball to enter the Durant sweepstakes. The question is, how serious are they about making a run at the former MVP, two-time champion and future hall of famer?

Their long-term plan has been to collect assets, develop them, and maintain flexibility while remaining patient and waiting for the right opportunity to consolidate some of their pieces. It worked once before and they’re set up to do it again, if and when they choose. They’ve got really good young players on team-friendly contracts, and they’ve kept all their draft picks. But is this the right opportunity? That’s what they’ll have to figure out.

This is not the Kawhi Leonard situation. They’re not going to get Durant for the equivalent of DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl and a first-round pick. Yes, KD is turning 34 and comes with an injury history, but unlike Leonard, there are fewer questions about his current health, mindset and contractual status – he’s got four years left on his deal.

That’s what makes this so fascinating from the Nets standpoint. Unlike Anthony Davis, Paul George or other disgruntled stars that have forced their way out of their respective organizations just before their contracts were due to expire, Durant still has significant term remaining, which allows Brooklyn to retain some leverage in an unenviable situation.

There’s no sugar coating it; this is a nightmare scenario for them. They already dealt a half-decade’s worth of first-round picks to Houston for James Harden, who barely unpacked before engineering a trade to Philly for Ben Simmons, who hasn’t played basketball in a year. Billed as one of the best trios to ever join forces, Durant, Irving and Harden wound up playing 16 games together. There’s a reasonable chance that all three have played their last game for the franchise.

They have little incentive to rush this process or send Durant to his preferred destinations – reportedly Phoenix or Miami – if those offers don’t yield the best returns. The only way this doesn’t cripple the franchise for years to come is if they score a historic price, and you can bet that’s what they’ll be asking for. Given what’s for sale – a generational talent still at the height of his powers and under contract for the foreseeable future – you would imagine that somebody’s going to pay it.

As for what it would cost the Raptors, the easy answer is it depends on Brooklyn’s objectives. The assumption is that Irving will follow Durant out the door, but without knowing that for sure it’s hard to say how competitive the Nets could be in the near term. If they still want to build a winner around Irving and Simmons – and considering they don’t have their own picks, that’s a possibility – a package centred on Pascal Siakam would make some sense for both sides.

But if they opt to rebuild, and likely even if they don’t, the conversation probably starts with the reigning Rookie of the Year, Scottie Barnes. His inclusion in any deal could very well be a prerequisite for the Nets if they’re dead set on getting a blue chip prospect back. If Toronto’s appetite to move its 20-year-old rising star is low then that might be the end of the discussion. Then, on top of Barnes or Siakam or OG Anunoby and whoever else is included in the deal, there’s the matter of draft compensation. How many picks are too many picks?

As a ballpark estimate, the Nets sent three first-round picks and four pick swaps to Houston for Harden, and they’ll likely be looking to recoup most of that cost in a Durant trade.

For the Raptors, you can argue it in either direction. There’s certainly merit to going all-in on a player like Durant, assuming you’d still have enough left after the deal to contend for championships. Durant alone would put them in the conversation; he’s that good. But is it worth what would be a franchise-altering price?

As great as Barnes could become, you’re hoping he grows into what Durant is today. Parting with him, as difficult as it would be, is tenable in this case. Where it gets complicated is with all the other pieces they would have to include to match Durant’s salary – he’ll make more than $44 million next season while Barnes will earn less than $8 million.

And all those draft picks they’d have to send the other way? We’ve seen what can happen when a team sends out a bunch of unprotected future first-round selections. It’s come back to bite the Nets twice in the last decade. Their trade for Kevin Garnett and Paul Piece in 2013 ultimately cost them the picks that landed Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in Boston, and outside of one playoff series victory over the Raptors in 2013-14 they got nothing to show for it. Now, the Rockets stand to benefit from their latest misfortune. Considering how reluctant Ujiri and Webster have been to mortgage the future and trade future firsts, this kind of deal seems out of character for Toronto.

Obviously, for any team acquiring Durant, you want to avoid giving up picks past the length of his current deal. But even surrendering three or four is a huge risk. You’re betting on him staying healthy, which isn’t a lock for a 34-year-old who’s had significant injuries. And you’re betting that he’ll honour the remaining years on his contract, which isn’t a lock for any player in the league these days. If you take the swing and miss, you could be watching Brooklyn make lottery picks on your behalf for years to come. Just a couple weeks ago, the Celtics came two wins shy of winning the title thanks to a similar gamble that didn’t pay off.

In a pair of expected moves, the Raptors acted fast when free agency opened on Thursday, retaining Chris Boucher and Thaddeus Young within the first 30 minutes. They were both fair deals – bringing Boucher back for $35.25 million over three years and signing the veteran Young for two years at $16 million – and not exactly an indicator of whether they’re planning something bigger. Either way, they could use the depth.

It’s not an easy decision, but it’s one the Raptors are in a good position to make. They could choose to push their chips in. They could also stay the course, continue to develop their young core, and wait for a better – or at least less risky – opportunity to cash in.