J.A. Happ will try to turn his recent slide around against the Red Sox on Thursday night. TSN Baseball Reporter Scott Mitchell provides his key takeaways from the series against the Atlanta Braves.

GAMES 90-91, JULY 10-11: JAYS AT BRAVES

RESULT: Series split 1-1

RECORD: 42-49

STREAK: L1

1. Happ looking to rebound in Boston

A pair of back-to-back stinkers has left J.A. Happ’s ERA at 4.44, well above the American League average of 4.29 for a starting pitcher.

That’s not good.

But we all know by now, in this age of advanced metrics, that ERA isn’t the only way to judge how well a pitcher is actually throwing, and Happ’s 3.98 FIP this season –Fielding Independent Pitching evens out the luck that comes with balls in play – is below his career average of 4.10, giving us a better sense of how good the 35-year-old lefty’s season has been.

That aside, there’s no doubt Happ has been awful over his past two starts, allowing 13 earned runs in just 8.1 innings.

Over his last four starts, he’s allowed six home runs.

Turning things around against a Red Sox offence with what’s sure to be a throng of scouts in attendance Thursday night will help solidify Happ’s standing as one of the most attractive trade chips on the market.

Another dud, however, could leave contenders wondering what’s up with the veteran hurler and make them think twice about tabling a significant package of assets.

Lots of fingers are crossed in the Jays front office.

2. Smoak’s bat heating up in July

Heading into the all-star break, Justin Smoak is on a power binge, hitting his fifth home run in 11 games Wednesday night in the seventh inning of the series finale in Atlanta.

After going 6-for-11 over the weekend against the New York Yankees, Smoak has continued to swing a hot bat, swatting his 13th and 14th homers of the season against the Braves to run his hitting streak to five games.

Over his last 11 games, Smoak is slashing .306/.405/.806, and the hot stretch has pushed his wRC+ to 128, which is just off his 132 mark of a year ago.

3. Gaviglio doesn’t last long on the road

Sam Gaviglio came into the night Wednesday in Atlanta with a 3.81 ERA.

He left it with a 4.70 mark after getting just five outs and giving up six earned runs.

In other words, things didn’t go well for the 28-year-old righty, who’s failed to make it through five innings in five of his last seven starts.

It was a six-run second inning that did Gaviglio in, as he allowed six hits, but also wasn’t help by some poor defensive decision making.

With Ryan Borucki staking claim to a rotation spot for now with his strong three-start run and Jaime Garcia and Aaron Sanchez both trending towards returns after the all-star break, Gaviglio will have to start finding some consistent results in order to avoid being banished to the bullpen.

Of course, that could be temporary situation once a starter or two is traded prior to the deadline.

4. Braves are easy work for Stroman

Despite a hiccup in his last outing, Marcus Stroman continues to look recovered from an early-season shoulder problem, as the 27-year-old right-hander was in complete control over seven innings Tuesday night.

Stroman was in vintage form, inducing 14 ground-ball outs, while allowing just six hits, two walks, and fanning five.

Since coming off the DL on June 23, Stroman has pitched to a 3.04 ERA in 23.2 innings across four starts.

In addition to limiting the walks in all but one of those starts, Stroman has held opposing batters to a .642 OPS, looking much more like the confident righty who finished fourth in the American League in ERA last season.

Stroman will be tested by a deep Red Sox lineup on Sunday in Boston.

5. Starter for Saturday still undecided

Pushed back this week thanks to a timely off-day on Monday, Marco Estrada’s status for Saturday is still up in the air.

Estrada, who holds a 4.72 ERA in 17 starts this season, threw Wednesday in Atlanta, but the Jays still aren’t sure if his strained left glute will allow him to take the mound during the third game of a four game set in Boston.

The veteran right-hander hasn’t been heard from since leaving his July 3 start against the New York Mets after just 12 pitches.

If Estrada can’t go, the Jays could be forced to piece things together with a bullpen day.

Up next: Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park

Thursday: LHP J.A. Happ (10-5, 4.44) vs. LHP David Price (9-6, 4.44)
Friday: LHP Ryan Borucki (0-1, 2.25) vs. RHP Rick Porcello (11-3, 3.58)
Saturday: TBA vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (11-3, 3.62)
Sunday: RHP Marcus Stroman (2-6, 5.90) vs. TBA​