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In a normal 162-game Major League Baseball season, I usually evaluate a team’s status on Memorial Day, the U.S. holiday held on the last Monday in May.

The Toronto Blue Jays have now played 23 games in this COVID-19-shortened 60-game season, which equates to 62 games in the normal full season. We have reached the “Memorial Day” point.  After Toronto’s thrilling doubleheader sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday, including rallying from a 7-0 deficit in the second game, they are now 12-11 and in third place in the AL East with five straight wins.

They are not going to win the division as the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays are better teams and the standings show it. The Jays won’t finish in second place either. But they still have a shot at October baseball as a wild card. In fact, if the season ended today the Jays would be in as the second wild-card team.

In the expanded playoff format this year, eight teams in each league make the postseason, including the top two teams in each division plus the two next-best clubs as wild-card winners.

The American League is already starting to define itself, with the Yankees, Rays, Minnesota Twins, Cleveland, Oakland Athletics and Houston Astros looking like clear predicable playoff teams. That leaves the two wild-card positions.

The Chicago White Sox are 15-11 and appear to be the team to beat for the first spot. Right now, the Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners don’t feel like contenders at all. That leaves the Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers and Jays as the three teams battling it out for the eighth and final playoff spot. I think the Orioles are going to keep fading after a promising start.

The Jays have a real shot. They might be able to make a run at the White Sox for the No. 7 seed, but the AL Central division teams are not as strong as the AL East teams, which could work against Toronto. A lot will have to go right for the Jays to qualify.
The recent losses of Bo Bichette and Nate Pearson to the injured list, along with closer Ken Giles, reduces the Jays' margin for error. Of course, it is next-man-up. But they will need more than what they have been getting from their everyday cast of characters.

Recently, Randal Grichuk has exploded and is on one of his hot hitting streaks. The Jays need Teoscar Hernandez to get hot and stay hot. He also can’t cost them runs defensively. It is imperative that Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Rowdy Tellez and Cavan Biggio step up their game. Danny Jansen can’t just be a defensive catcher; he needs to start producing with the bat.

The rest of the rotation is going to have to keep the Jays in games and their bullpen can’t just hold leads; they also have to hold deficits for late-inning comebacks. The bullpen has been great. Ryan Borucki, Anthony Kay, Jordan Romano, Thomas Hatch, Rafael Dolis, A.J. Cole and Anthony Bass have been better than expected, but they can’t slide backwards now.

The good news is that the Orioles (starting pitching) and Rangers (offence) are flawed teams, too, with bigger gaping holes than the Jays have.

My prediction is the Jays finish 30-30 and make the playoffs as the eighth seed.

Romano transforms into a weapon

During spring training and again during summer camp, I kept hearing the Blue Jays rave about Jordan Romano. Now I see what they were talking about.

I hardly recognize him from the pitcher who had a 7.63 ERA in 2019, allowing 30 base runners in 15.1 innings pitched. He looked like just another guy last year.

The transformation has been stunning. His fastball has jumped in velocity from an average of 95 mph to 97.1 mph. His slider has been transformed in its shape and velocity as well. He's throwing the ball more than four mph harder in 2020 (85.1-89.4). The results have been terrific as he has a 0.75 ERA with 18 strikeouts in 12 innings. In fact, he has only allowed eight baserunners this year. He has been that dominant.

The analytics department has gotten to him as well. In 2109, 63.7 per cent of Romano's pitches were fastballs and 36.3 per cent were sliders. This season he has flipped the usage. In 2020, he has only used his fastball 39.4 per cent of the time and his slider has jumped to 60.6 per cent usage.

He has been totally remade. And it is working. He is a weapon out of the bullpen now. He certainly has closer stuff, but the Jays are going to have to decide if they want to use him in a conventional role or as a weapon in high-leverage situations regardless of inning.

The same transformation is happening with Ryan Borucki.

He has added 2.6 mph to his fastball and about the same to his curveball and slider. Some part of the increase in heat from Borucki may be that as a reliever he isn’t pacing himself for six of seven innings' worth of work and that he can just air it out now. He has not given up a run in his eight appearances so far and has only allowed two hits in 7.2 innings pitched. He is also throwing fewer fastballs (43.5 per cent) now than breaking pitches (56.5 per cent).

This is a dynamic one-two punch in a bullpen. One lefty. One righty. Any manager in baseball would love to have options like this.

Spitting Seeds

-This sort of dramatic improvement in pitchers bodes well for the future of the Blue Jays. The team that is the best in baseball at developing pitching is Cleveland. They get the most out of their pitchers and as a staff they know how to attack the opposition with the stuff they have and can execute the game plan. They use analytics, video and technology to study each pitcher's delivery, spin rates, pitch usage and release point. The system that is in place in Cleveland was started by Jays president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins during their time with the organization. Jays fans are now starting to see the benefits of that system with their pitchers.

-There was a ton of noise made this week after San Diego Padres superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. swung at a 3-0 pitch in the eighth inning with his team leading 10-3 and hit a grand slam. Somehow, he had violated one of the unwritten rules in baseball because he humiliated the Texas Rangers by doing so. Tatis was given the take sign by his third base coach but didn’t see it. That is a mistake without question. It is his responsibility to look for a sign when the count is 3-0 in order to know whether he is to take it. But the idea that he did something wrong by swinging in that moment that is absurd.

If the Rangers were in the same situation with the bases loaded, and Joey Gallo, their best hitter, was at the plate with a 3-0 count, trailing 10-3 in the eighth inning, their announcers would proclaim, “Get ready folks, Gallo is going to have the green light here. With one swing of the bat, he can get the Rangers right back in the game.” There is no way Gallo would be given a take sign. If Gallo were to homer in that situation, it would make the score 10-7 and would made it a save situation for the Padres, where they would have to use their best relievers. If one swing of the bat could get the other team back in the game, then why should the Padres and Tatis not try to tack on runs and put the game away?

There is a time in a blowout game when taking pitches is probably the right thing to do. Nobody is looking to embarrass anyone. But regardless, the team that is getting bludgeoned should never be the ones crying about it. Let someone else ask the questions about whether it is proper baseball etiquette. These are grown men who are getting paid to perform. They are not little leaguers who could get discouraged and not want to play anymore. They are paid based upon their performance.  So, perform better and complain less.