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Frank Seravalli

TSN Senior Hockey Reporter

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Matt Duchene has likely played his last game as an Ottawa Senator, making him the new No. 1 on the latest TSN Trade Bait board.

The question is: How long will Duchene remain atop the list?

Teammate Mark Stone could well knock him off the perch. He is deliberating whether to engage in talks with the Senators on a long-term extension after a significant offer was believed to be tabled in the past week. If Stone decides he would rather hit the market this summer he will jump to the top of the board as the most sought-after target for TradeCentre 2019.

Pending free agent Jakub Silfverberg is off the board as he is closing in on a reported five-year extension with the Anaheim Ducks once their salary cap tagging space expands on March 1.

Detroit Red Wings defenceman Nick Jensen has climbed up to No. 11 with serious interest growing in the affordable third-pair blueliner, while newcomers Alexander Wennberg (No. 18), Jason Zucker (No. 25) and Patrik Nemeth (No. 38) have all joined the board.

The Senators do not currently own a first-round pick for June’s Entry Draft, but they may hold as many as three first-round slots by the time the deadline passes on Monday at 3 p.m. ET.

Seven first-round picks were swapped last year during the deadline period, the most in a decade. Paul Stastny, Evander Kane, Rick Nash, Derick Brassard, Ryan McDonagh/J.T. Miller, Tomas Tatar and Ryan Hartman each netted a first.

Which players could fetch a first-round pick this year?

To start, the Big Three are a given: Stone, Duchene and Artemi Panarin, who still remains more likely than not to be traded.

Then there is the next group, which likely includes rugged two-time 30-goal scorer Wayne Simmonds and rangy centre Kevin Hayes, who is already nearing his career-high of 49 points.

The wild cards are Ryan Dzingel, Mats Zuccarello, Gustav Nyquist and Jimmy Howard. Depending on the circumstances, any one of them could bring back a first-round pick. If the Carolina Hurricanes would have gotten a first-round pick for Micheal Ferland, he would already be gone.

The Red Wings have been holding out for one for Howard, who is a candidate to re-sign in Detroit even if he finishes this season as a rental elsewhere. The Calgary Flames and Carolina Hurricanes are believed to have kicked the tires on Howard recently.

The diminutive Norwegian winger Zuccarello, 32, seemed a longshot to return a first-rounder as recently as mid-January. He’s been one of the hottest players in the NHL with 22 points (seven goals) in his last 14 games.

Dzingel has been in many ways the forgotten Sen in the shadow of Stone and Duchene. But he’s where it really gets interesting for Ottawa. They could make a last-minute push to sign him, but a first-round pick for Dzingel could potentially give them three this year – and give GM Pierre Dorion plenty of ammo to either restock the cupboard or package the picks to move back up into the lottery zone they could have been enjoying all along.

Dzingel, 26, is having a career year with 22 goals and 44 points. Hartman fetched a first-rounder and he had just eight goals and 17 points at the deadline.

So, which teams could have first-round picks on the move? Three teams have already traded this year's pick: Toronto (Jake Muzzin), San Jose (Erik Karlsson/Evander Kane conditional) and St. Louis (Ryan O'Reilly).

Let’s rank the first-round pick Trade Bait from most likely to least likely:

1. Winnipeg Jets: See No. 5 on the Trade Bait board. GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is certainly big-game hunting, studying all of the top names on the list.

2. Nashville Predators: David Poile has been in ‘all-in’ mode, engaged in a Central Division arms race with the Jets.

3. Tampa Bay Lightning: The Bolts owe their first-round pick to the Rangers this year if they win the Stanley Cup, so any trade would have to include counter-conditions to move to 2020.

4. Calgary Flames: The Flames are neck-and-neck with San Jose in the race to get the prize of the Western Conference’s turtle race for the second wild-card spot. But which is a bigger priority: goaltending or depth scoring?

5. Pittsburgh Penguins: Jim Rutherford has traded his first rounder every year he’s been GM of the Pens.

6. Boston Bruins: Are the surging Bruins gun-shy at all after the Rick Nash experiment didn’t work out as planned last spring?

7. Columbus Blue Jackets: With Panarin potentially on the move, the Jackets may be in a position to both give and get first-round picks.

8. Vegas Golden Knights: George McPhee’s trade deadline track record took another hit last year when trading a first, second and third-round pick for Tomas Tatar.

9. Dallas Stars: Jim Nill hasn’t tipped his hand, but some wonder whether Dallas could be a sneaky big buyer this year. One issue is the Stars’ inconsistency.

10. Washington Capitals: All signs point to a smaller addition, like Michal Kempny, who was one of the best value pickups in recent deadline history.

11. Montreal Canadiens: Marc Bergevin is on the record saying he does not plan to trade futures to help the Habs, who have not reached contender status.

12. New York Islanders: In 32 years as a GM, Lou Lamoriello has only traded a first-round pick twice at the deadline - for Ilya Kovalchuk (2010) and Jamie Langenbrunner/Joe Nieuwendyk (2002).

With that, here is TSN Hockey’s latest Trade Bait board, which always seeks to blend a player’s prominence with his likelihood of a trade:

 

The Top 50

 
Trend Player Pos Age GP G PTS Cap Hit Years
Embedded Image 1. Matt Duchene, OTT C 28 50 27 58 $6M UFA
  2. Artemi Panarin, CBJ LW 27 56 24 67 $6M UFA
  3. Mark Stone, OTT RW 26 59 28 62 $7.35M UFA
  4. Wayne Simmonds, PHI RW 30 60 16 27 $3.98M UFA
  5. Jets' 1st-Round Pick              
  6. Kevin Hayes, NYR C 26 50 14 42 $5.18M UFA
  7. Mats Zuccarello, NYR RW 31 45 11 37 $4.5M UFA
  8. Gustav Nyquist, DET RW 29 59 15 48 $4.75M UFA
Embedded Image 9. Ryan Dzingel, OTT LW 26 57 22 44 $1.8M UFA
  10. Jimmy Howard, DET G 34 41 2.8 0.913 $5.3M UFA
Embedded Image 11. Nick Jensen, DET RD 28 59 2 15 $813K UFA
  12. Sergei Bobrovsky, CBJ G 30 43 2.89 0.904 $7.43M UFA
  13. Micheal Ferland, CAR LW 26 51 16 33 $1.75M UFA
  14. Marcus Johansson, NJD LW 28 48 12 27 $4.58M UFA
  15. Dougie Hamilton, CAR RD 25 60 10 24 $5.75M 2
  16. Jack Roslovic, WPG RW/C 22 58 7 17 $894K 1
Embedded Image 17. Alexander Wennberg, CBJ C 24 59 2 23 $4.9M 4
  18. Adam Henrique, ANA C 29 60 12 32 $5.83M 5
  19. Eeli Tolvanen, NSH RW 19 4 1 2 $894K 2
  20. Jonathan Huberdeau, FLA LW 25 58 15 56 $5.9M 4
  21. Artem Anisimov, CHI C 30 56 9 27 $4.55M 2
  22. Derick Brassard, FLA C 31 49 10 19 $5M UFA
  23. Cody Ceci, OTT RD 24 55 5 20 $4.3M RFA
Embedded Image 24. Jason Zucker, MIN LW 27 59 14 29 $5.5M 4
Embedded Image 25. Brett Pesce, CAR RD 23 51 5 15 $4.03M 5
  26. Luke Glendening, DET C 29 60 9 20 $1.8M 2
  27. Alex Chiasson, EDM RW 28 50 17 27 $650K UFA
  28. Andre Burakovsky, WSH LW 23 54 7 17 $3M RFA
  29. Brayden Schenn, STL C 27 50 11 39 $5.13M 1
  30. Eric Staal, MIN C 34 59 17 37 $3.5M UFA
  31. Justin Faulk, CAR RD 26 60 5 21 $4.83M 1
  32. Adam McQuaid, NYR RD 32 35 2 5 $2.75M UFA
  33. Jeff Carter, LAK C 33 53 10 25 $5.27M 3
  34. Chris Kreider, NYR LW 27 59 24 44 $4.63M 1
  35. Colton Parayko, STL RD 25 59 10 19 $5.5M 3
  36. Alex Steen, STL LW 34 43 6 19 $5.75M 2
Embedded Image 37. Patrik Nemeth, COL LD 27 51 1 5 $2.5M UFA
  38. Jay Bouwmeester, STL LD 35 55 2 12 $5.4M UFA
  39. Carl Hagelin, LAK LW 30 38 2 8 $4M UFA
  40. Patrick Maroon, STL LW 30 51 4 16 $1.75M UFA
  41. Ben Lovejoy, NJD RD 34 51 2 7 $2.67M UFA
  42. Vlad Namestnikov, NYR LW 25 55 7 20 $4M 1
  43. Nikolay Goldobin, VAN LW 23 52 6 25 $863K RFA
  44. Jesse Puljujarvi, EDM RW 20 46 4 9 $925K RFA
  45. Mikkel Boedker, OTT LW 29 52 6 29 $4M 1
  46. Tobias Rieder, EDM LW 26 45 0 10 $2M RFA
  47. Sven Andrighetto, COL RW 25 41 4 7 $1.4M RFA
  48. Andreas Johnsson, TOR LW 24 52 15 31 $788K RFA
  49. Kasperi Kapanen, TOR RW 22 59 18 37 $863K RFA
  50. Jeff Skinner, BUF LW 26 59 36 54 $5.73M UFA
 

 

TRADED:

No. 5: Maple Leafs’ first-round pick - Toronto to Los Angeles on Jan. 28
No. 6: Cam Talbot - Edmonton to Philadelphia on Feb. 15
No. 8: Derick Brassard - Pittsburgh to Florida on Feb. 1
No. 9: Charlie Coyle - Minnesota to Boston on Feb. 20
No. 11: Brian Boyle - New Jersey to Nashville on Feb. 6
No. 13: Chris Wideman - Ottawa to Edmonton on Nov. 22
No. 14: Tanner Pearson - Los Angeles to Pittsburgh on Nov. 14
No. 17: Jake Muzzin - Los Angeles to Toronto on Jan. 28
No. 27: Alex Petrovic - Florida to Edmonton on Dec. 29
No. 27: Nino Niederreiter - Minnesota to Carolina on Jan. 17
No. 28: Nick Bjugstad - Florida to Pittsburgh on Feb. 1
No. 28: Brandon Manning - Chicago to Edmonton on Dec. 29
No. 35: Michael Del Zotto - Vancouver to Anaheim on Jan. 16
No. 35: Jamie Oleksiak - Pittsburgh to Dallas on Jan. 29
No. 36: Luke Schenn - Anaheim to Vancouver on Jan. 16  
No. 48: Dale Weise - Philadelphia to Montreal on Feb. 9

 

Contact Frank Seravalli on Twitter: @frank_seravalli