Jun 22, 2018
What to watch for as Dubas works first draft as Leafs GM
TSN Maple Leafs Reporter Kristen Shilton previews Toronto's approach to tonight's NHL draft - the first for Kyle Dubas as Leafs GM.
DALLAS - When Maple Leafs president Brendan Shanahan promoted Kyle Dubas to be the team’s general manager in early May, part of his plan was for a seamless transition of power - a straight-forward continuation of what Toronto has already begun successfully building.
To that end, in his first draft as an NHL GM, Dubas will have the Leafs’ hopeful future at top of mind.
Toronto has seven selections in Friday’s draft: one in each of the first five rounds and two in the seventh. Holding the 25th overall pick, Dubas and company will exercise patience as the draft board falls where it may ahead of them, before any certainty in their selection with that initial pick can be reached.
“It’s lively, and it’s a fluid situation for sure,” he said in the lead-up to Friday night’s first round. “It’s tough to predict right now even with the top two picks locked in, what’s going to be there or not at 25. Try not to have our people do too much undue prognosticating which we aren’t especially good at in my experience the day before the draft.
“We’ll be as prepared as possible and be ready when we get on the floor [Friday] and see whatever happens and roll from there.”
Dubas manned the Leafs’ draft table once before in 2015, working with Shanahan and now former director of player personnel Mark Hunter. Today, Dubas holds most of the authority on who the Leafs ultimately bring into the fold and develop, while also being wholly realistic that anyone the team selects over this weekend won’t be suiting up in blue and white anytime soon.
Over the last decade, picking outside the Top 20 hasn’t been close to a home run for the Leafs. Since 2011, Toronto has made three selections late in the first round - Tyler Biggs (22nd overall), Stuart Percy (25th overall) and Frederik Gauthier (21st overall). Only Gauthier - the 6-foot-5 centre who has so far failed to deliver on the mean, heavy game required of his frame - remains in the organization. Biggs flamed out without ever playing an NHL game and Percy’s 12 games for the Leafs (his only NHL action to date) resulted in a meagre three assists. None of that is a ringing endorsement either for the selections themselves, or the spot in the order they were taken.
His due diligence requires Dubas not only to consider making a selection at 25, but to also communicate with the NHL’s other 30 GMs and perhaps broker a deal to put Toronto in better position. Dubas was still considering all options after a marathon general managers meeting late Thursday afternoon.
“[At trade] would totally depend on what’s available and where things fall on the draft floor,” he epxlained. “I would say [the trade talks are] probably equal to 2015 just from my previous experience. We were in a different spot then.
“We were completely rebuilding and everything was on the table. But right now we’re in active talks with everyone. Teams are stating their intensions - there have been a few trades already - and we’re just monitoring for the Maple Leafs and see if there’s anything that can improve us.”
Even with the chorus of “staying the course” that Dubas has recited in previous weeks, how he will proceed is still shrouded in some vague mystery. But there are a few things to bank on.
Dubas expounds on the virtue of patience when it comes to upcoming contract negotiations with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander and isn’t the type to make a draft-day splash (a trade, for instance) just to underscore that he’s the one in charge now. Dubas will be thorough and thoughtful without being overly cautious. And above all, he won’t draft purely for positional need, because filling holes that already exist for the Leafs isn’t the point of this weekend.
He may covet an NHL-ready right-shot defenceman or a third-line centre (especially with the departure of Miro Aaltonen back to the KHL), but he isn’t going to find either with these seven picks in hand. At this stage, the Leafs have already compiled a board with the organization’s ranking of each player available. And when Toronto is on the clock, the highest one still remaining will get the call.
“I don’t think if we draft a centre [on Friday], we can’t count on him certainly [to step in right away],” Dubas reiterated. “If anything, [Aaltonen leaving] creates some incentive for our internal people. It’s another depth spot that opens up for us.”
So what factors go into determining “best available” from a Leafs’ perspective, after just pure talent? Toronto will be eyeing players who can thrive within its system, mirrored at the AHL and NHL levels, and who possess the smarts and work ethic to make the most of their skill set.
At No. 25, centre Akil Thomas could be a wise pick to help shore up Toronto’s future down the middle. As alternate captain of the Niagara IceDogs, he put up 81 points in 68 games last season to pace his draft class in OHL points. The 18-year-old is lithe at 6-feet, 170 pounds and hasn’t shown himself to be truly elite in any one aspect yet, but Thomas can score from anywhere and has an innate hockey sense that sees him in the right place, at the right time, to make plays. With a little time to grow, those attributes could morph into something special for the Leafs.
On the back end, defenceman Mattias Samuelsson could fall far enough that he lands right in Toronto’s lap. A U.S. National Team Development Team product committed to Western Michigan University, he’s a 6-foot-4, 218-pound left shot with the size that teams covet on their blueline. And he has an NHL pedigree thanks to dad Kjell Samuelsson, a long-time defenceman in the league. Samuelsson could come off as more of the same for the Leafs though, who have drafted a stable of big defenders in recent years including Keaton Middleton (6-foot-5), Eemeli Rasanen (6-foot-7) and J.D. Greenway (6-foot-4). But Samuelsson is more than just a big body - he’s quick and creative, and could be the total package for the Leafs down the road.
A few other solid possibilities for Toronto in the first round if they fall to 25: RD Bode Wilde (great offensive upside, solid skater, but prone to poor decision making with the puck), C Ryan McLeod (high-end skill set he hasn’t fully harnessed) and C Ty Dellandrea (good overall size and skill).
When it comes time for the Leafs to make their decision, Dubas may be the one in the driver’s seat but he’ll glean information from his colleagues, namely assistant general managers Brandon Pridham and Laurence Gilman and the Leafs’ various area directors of scouting. It won’t be the same as having Hunter in the mix (who was key to managing the last three Toronto drafts), but Dubas has learned a thing or two himself along the way, starting with how to use all your resources to their advantage.
“The way [the staff have] handled things has made my life quite easy,” he explained. “They’ve been very prepared and the days have just rolled on.
“So our process has been good I think and we’ll see [on Friday] how it all plays out and go from there.”