AFC West powerhouses are renewing their rivalry when Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) take on Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers (1-0).
Despite the Chiefs recent dominance since naming Mahomes their starting quarterback at the beginning of the 2018 season (51-15 record, five straight division titles, one Super Bowl championship), the Chargers have been one team to play them close consistently.
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This is especially true since Herbert took over as their starting quarterback at the beginning of the 2020 season. Each of the first three matchups between the young quarterbacks have featured a game-winning score in OT or the last minute of regulation:
2020 Week 2: Mahomes takes down Herbert in the rookie’s first career start. Harrison Butker kicks a 58-yard FG in overtime, the longest OT field goal in NFL history.
2021 Week 3: Herbert outduels Mahomes at Arrowhead with four touchdowns and no interceptions, including the game-winner to Mike Williams with 32 seconds left.
2021 Week 15: Mahomes returns the favor in Los Angeles, throwing 2 game-tying TD in the 4th quarter and then connecting with Travis Kelce on the 34-yard game-winner in OT.
Since 2020, the two rank at or near the top of the league in fourth quarter/OT production:
Fourth Quarter/OT Ranks Since 2020
| Stat | Herbert Rank | Mahomes Rank |
|---|---|---|
| QB Rating | 5th | 1st |
| Pass TD | 6th | 2nd |
| Comeback Wins | T-4th | 3rd |
Additionally, Mahomes and Herbert have two of the league's best QBs under pressure since 2020, which could be very important in this matchup: the Chiefs' defence has the league's third-highest pressure percentage over the past three years, and the Chargers have a dominant duo of pass rushing threats in Joey Bosa (Pro Bowler in four of the past five seasons) and offseason addition Khalil Mack (six Pro Bowls, three first-team All-Pro nominations).
NFL Ranks Under Pressure Since 2020
| Stat | Herbert Rank | Mahomes Rank |
|---|---|---|
| QB Rating | 3rd | 1st |
| Pass yards | 2nd | 1st |
| Pass TD | T-2nd | 2nd |
Mahomes has a 21-3 career record against divisional opponents, which is tied for the most by a QB through their first 25 divisional starts since the 1970 merger, as per Elias Sports. However, two of his three losses are against the Chargers, and each of those losses are at home.
In week one this season, Mahomes threw five touchdowns - all of them against man coverage. Since the beginning of last season, Mahomes has thrown 32 touchdowns against man coverage - the second-most in the NFL in that span. He has the third-highest QB rating in the NFL against man coverage over that span as well.
In the same time frame, the Chargers have run man coverage 56 percent of the time, which is fourth-highest in the NFL over that span, as per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Other Notes:
– Chargers: haven’t started 2-0 in a season since 2012, that’s the fourth-longest active drought of its kind in the NFL. Only the Commanders (10), Colts (13) and Browns (25) have longer active streaks (by seasons).
– Chargers: won back-to-back road games vs Chiefs, looking for third straight for first time since 2007-09.
– Herbert: has thrown for fewer yards in each progressive matchup against KC.
– Herbert: seeking to become first starting quarterback to beat Mahomes twice at Arrowhead Stadium (including playoffs).
– Herbert: team is 5-1 when he throws 340+ yards and just 2-6 when he throws for fewer than 240 since 2021.
– Chiefs: have won six straight home openers, second-longest streak in franchise history (11 straight from 1989-99).
– Chiefs: 12-2 in September since Mahomes became the full-time starter in 2018 (best record in NFL over span).
– Travis Kelce: 6 different streaks of 100+ receiving yards, a 7th would be the most in the Super Bowl Era for a TE.
– Kelce: 30 career games with 100 Rec yds, one shy of tying Tony Gonzalez for second-most 100-yd games by a TE and two games shy of tying Rob Gronkowski for the most.
– Mahomes: 296.5 Pass YPG in Primetime games since 2018, only Herbert (300.2 Pass YPG) averages more in that span.
– Mahomes: 77.0 career QBR in Divisional games, best in the NFL since the metric was introduced in 2006.