Canada can punch its ticket to the World Cup in Qatar on Wednesday night, but before getting too excited about that prospect, know that the likelihood of that happening is overwhelmingly poor.
Here’s what would have to happen for Canada to wrap up a World Cup berth on Wednesday:
1. Canada must defeat El Salvador – This part is doable. Canada is the last remaining undefeated CONCACAF side and hasn’t lost a match in El Salvador in 25 years. El Salvador hasn’t been mathematically eliminated yet, but for all intents and purposes, they’re only playing for pride over the final four matches.
2. USMNT must lose to Honduras – As toothless as the United States looked on Sunday in Hamilton, the odds of a winless and already eliminated Honduras pulling off a massive upset are not good. The USMNT is 19-5-3 all-time against Honduras and their only loss against the Central Americans in World Cup qualifying at home came in 2001 at RFK Stadium in Washington, D.C., when Honduras came away with a 3-2 victory. Again, it’s possible, but don’t bet on it unless you’re comfortable with losing money.
3. Panama must lose to Mexico – This part is also doable, but far from a certainty. The Azteca is a foreboding place for any visiting team to come to and that psychological edge will play in El Tri’s favour. Mexico is 22-12-5 all-time against Panama and El Tri’s only loss at home came in a 1980 friendly. History is on Mexico’s side, but their current form isn’t. El Tri’s past four qualifiers were as follows: 2-0 loss to the USMNT, 2-1 loss to Canada, last-gasp 2-1 win over 10-man Jamaica and a listless 0-0 draw against Costa Rica. Mexico remains on course for Qatar, but any further slip-ups could spell disaster with Tata Martino’s job a manager already hanging on by a thread. In fourth place and with matches against the USMNT and Canada still remaining, an automatic berth for Panama is still very much on the table and a victory in Mexico would go a long way to signalling their intent.
4. Costa Rica must not beat Jamaica – Again, possible, but unlikely. Costa Rica isn’t currently in the top four of the CONCACAF Octagon and are four points behind Panama with four matches remaining. Time isn’t on their side, but two of their last four matches are against teams ahead of them (USMNT and Canada) and there is a path forward. That path will get significantly rockier should Costa Rica fail to beat Jamaica in Kingston on Wednesday night. The Reggae Boyz will be officially eliminated with a loss and are coming off of two losses in matches in which they had led. While they won’t admit it, they’re simply playing for pride at this point.
While full qualification will be difficult to come by on Wednesday, Canada can wrap up at least a top-four place that guarantees a spot in the intercontinental play-off against a team from Oceania (almost assuredly New Zealand) for one of the final World Cup berths. Canada can clinch a top-four spot by bettering Costa Rica’s result against Jamaica in their match with El Salvador. Canada currently sits nine points clear of Costa Rica with only nine points available after Wednesday night.
It's also imperative that Canada avoids the classic trap game against El Salvador. It’s impossible for this match to have the emotional resonance of Hamilton on Sunday when the USMNT, a team whose shadow Canada stood inside of for years, was swept aside by the burgeoning new CONCACAF power in the CanMNT. Because of that, Canada must steel itself against a letdown and give the proper respect due to their opponents in San Salvador.
In looking at the El Salvador roster, you won’t find the European-based stars that you’ll see within El Tri and the USMNT. In this latest set of qualifiers, Hugo Perez ‘s team has an average age of 26, with only two players over 30 and just nine of the 23 squad members having been capped 20 times or more. The names of Canada’s opponents might not be familiar, but they can still certainly cause problems.
The job is not yet done for the CanMNT, no matter how rosy the prospects of a first World Cup in 37 years might be.