Ahead of Tuesday's kick-off of the NBA season, TSN.ca looks at the big question facing each of the 30 clubs.
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Will Dirk and the Mavs go on one last playoff run?
The Dallas Mavericks are not getting any younger.
Justin Anderson is a talented young player and the team obviously thinks that we’ve yet to see the best of Harrison Barnes (so much so that they gave him four years and $95 million), but their linchpins have some miles on the odometer.
Deron Williams has played 82 games just once in his 12-year career and that was in 2007-08. Nobody doubts that Andrew Bogut is a warrior (lower-case “w”) who plays hurt, but injuries have been the hallmark of his career. And then there’s Dirk.
Dirk Nowitzki is a former MVP. He’s sixth all-time in scoring. He’s a future Hall of Famer. But he’s 38 years old. When your head-and-shoulders best player is 38, the potential for disaster is a big one. While bottoming out might not be the worst thing in the world when it comes to beginning to rebuild, that’s not exactly an option for a team with the kind of financial commitments the Mavs have. This means they could end up being the worst kind of bad team – the one that doesn’t know it’s bad.
If healthy, Dirk is still an offensive force. If not, where is the scoring going to come from? Wesley Matthews will be expected to pick up more of a load than he did in his inauspicious first season in Big D, but that’s not going to be enough. Is there an added offensive dimension to Barnes’s game that we’ve yet to see, limited due to playing time and the role he played with the Dubs? Probably not. He’ll get you double figures, but not much else. So it raises questions as to whether some of the money given to Barnes should have been earmarked for guaranteed secondary scoring. Rick Carlisle is one of the most respected coaches in the league and has consistently gotten the most out of his players over a 15-year coaching career. He’s been able to get value out of lesser players than Barnes, but he’s going to have his work cut out for him.
And enjoy Dirk while you can. Last season, the NBA said goodbye to three legends in Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett. Nowitzki belongs to that same vintage and his ride off into the sunset is getting that much closer.
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Is The Beard ready to go solo?
Michael and Scottie. Stockton and Malone. Shaq and Kobe.
Harden and Howard? No.
The duo of James Harden and Dwight Howard will not go down in the pantheon amongst the great twosomes in NBA history. Sure, the Houston Rockets got a conference finals appearance out of them, but Harden and Howard never came close to clicking in the way that general manager Daryl Morey imagined and now they’re over with Howard plying his trade in Atlanta. That means we’re about to witness the debut of James Harden, solo artist. It remains to be seen if he’s George Michael or Andrew Ridgeley, Pusha T or Malice, HBK or Marty Jannetty.
Backing Harden is an easy choice. A motivated Beard is one of the premier offensive forces in the NBA, perhaps even at point guard, where Harden is expected to see time this season (Patrick Beverley - an actual point guard - could be out up to six weeks with a knee injury). Nobody draws fouls like Harden and nobody goes to the line like Harden. With Mike D’Antoni at the helm of the Rockets now, the belief is that his famed “Seven Seconds or Less” offence is a perfect fit for Harden. With all of the attention paid to Harden – the owner of a new four-year, $118 million extension – there should be opportunities to score for new second and third options, stretch-four Ryan Anderson and combo-guard Eric Gordon. If this trio gels, the new-look Rockets attack could be a thing of beauty.
There is, of course, one pressing issue in Houston before we declare everything sunshine and rainbows – defence or, more accurately, a lack thereof. While Clint Capela has the makings of solid two-way centre, there doesn’t seem to be much reason to think a team that was 22nd in defensive rating, ninth-worst in points in transition and dead last in defensive rebounding percentage is going to change overnight. To help remedy the situation, former Denver Nuggets head coach Jeff Bzdelik has joined D’Antoni’s coaching staff. Having spent the last two seasons as an assistant with the Memphis Grizzlies, Bzdelik has cultivated a reputation as one of the finest defensive minds in the game and will need to get a team that isn’t blessed with athleticism to buy in on responsibility on both sides of the ball. How trying a task that is for Bzdelik will go a long way in determining what kind of factor the Rockets will be in the Western Conference playoff picture.
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Can the Grizzlies stay healthy?
Take a look to your left and then take a look to your right. If you do not see somebody who dressed for the Memphis Grizzlies last season, then you probably did.
Through an almost biblical string of injuries, the Grizzlies dressed a record 28 players last season and still somehow made the playoffs. Sure, they got smashed in the first round by the San Antonio Spurs, but the fact that Dave Joerger willed his veterans into the postseason was a testament to the toughness that has been a hallmark of this club for the better part of a decade. But Joerger’s gone now and the team will need to retain its former identity to keep above water in the West this season.
Highly regarded Miami Heat assistant David Fizdale gets his first crack at a head coaching gig with the Grizzlies and he’s already dealing with the Memphis injury bug when it comes to the club’s big free-agent addition in Chandler Parsons. Parsons will be looked to for scoring at the three and represents the Grizzlies’ best offensive option there since Rudy Gay left. But Parsons’ knee is a concern, considering that he’s missed 20 games a year ago and 15 the season before. In fact, Parsons hasn’t played more than 74 games in his five-year career. For the commitment made to the 27-year-old swingman (to the tune of four years and $94 million), the Grizzlies can ill-afford another member of the walking wounded.
Elsewhere, Mike Conley continues to be one of the league’s most unheralded point guards, but he’s getting paid for his troubles now, signing a max deal (well, the max deal – his five-year, $153 million pact is the richest in NBA history) this past summer. Conley – along with Marc Gasol in the middle – remains the engine of the Grizzlies’ offence, but all hell could break loose if one of their key cogs goes down again. There just isn’t the depth or quality past the Grizzlies’ big three to sustain another campaign like the last. Perhaps then, Zach Randolph’s move to the bench comes as both one indicative of decline and one as a means of preservation.
At full health – which is certainly relative when it comes to the Grizz – this is a surefire playoff team. Banking on that, though, would be foolish. If gutting out a playoff spot last season was a Houdini-esque escape act, pulling the same feat again would be a miracle.
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Who’s going to help out AD?
Calling a club a “one-man team” might be a pejorative, but you can’t say that it isn’t an accurate way to describe the New Orleans Pelicans heading into the season. With all due respect to the other guys about to suit up in NOLA, it’s Anthony Davis and everybody else. For the Pelicans to take a jump back to respectability and fight for a playoff berth, it’s going to take a team effort…potentially, a big one.
Before we look at what Alvin Gentry has at his disposal with this roster, let’s take a look at what he doesn’t. Tyreke Evans (a blood clot in his calf could keep him out until December), Quincy Pondexter (complications from knee surgeries make late November a realistic return date) and the team’s second-best player, Jrue Holiday (he’s taken personal leave as his wife – former USWNT player, Lauren – battles brain cancer) are all unavailable for the foreseeable future. Couple this with the fact that Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson are in Houston and the club could be in some trouble to start the season.
In the backcourt, the Pelicans will make due with Tim Frazier and rookie Buddy Hield. Hield is a fine shooter and is capable of contributing right now, but it would be folly to think Hield will translate from NCAA stud to NBA star overnight without hiccups. He’s going to need to learn how to play pro defence in a hurry and improve his shot off movement. Free-agent acquisitions Lance Stephenson, Solomon Hill and Terrence Jones are all reclamation projects to various extents and will have the opportunity to kick-start their careers with the Pelicans.
And what about Davis himself? The 23-year-old big man regressed last season, a year after putting the NBA on notice that he was coming for the mantle of the game’s best player. A lot that was due to injury (shoulder and knee issues), but the scary part is the variety of knocks that Davis has incurred over his young career. It’s too early to call him injury prone, yet he’s missed no fewer than 14 games in his first four seasons…and an ankle sprain has limited his preseason.
But a healthy Davis cannot be guarded. He can score from just about anywhere on the floor, even developing an astonishing outside shot for a player of his size. There’s no reason to believe a healthy Davis can’t rediscover the form from two seasons ago, but questions will linger about his fitness and his ability to withstand the rigours of an NBA season. An easy way to assuage those concerns is to start scoring in bunches again.
It will be difficult to get a good gauge as to where these Pelicans are at until they’re at full health, but if last season taught us anything about this team, it might be foolish to expect that day to come. Nothing might come easy in the Big Easy this season.
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Can the Spurs’ defence withstand the loss of The Big Fundamental?
When the San Antonio Spurs were upset in the second round of the Western Conference playoffs by the Oklahoma City Thunder, it brought the curtain down prematurely – we didn’t get that Spurs/Warriors Western Conference final showdown we all hoped for – on the storied career of Tim Duncan. Well, the NBA’s loss is Old Navy’s gain as Duncan is now free to buy pleated chinos and listen to yacht rock as he pleases, but life must go on for the Spurs. Gregg Popovich is now tasked with replacing Duncan’s contribution.
Now, keep in mind that the 15-time all-star put up career lows in his final season (8.6 points and 7.3 boards), but Duncan’s commitment to defence never wavered. Duncan helped lead the Spurs to the best team defence in the league. Moreover, Pop trusted nobody the way he did Duncan and even for a coach with the pedigree of Gregg Popovich, it’s going to be difficult to move forward without the Big Fundamental at his disposal.
In his stead comes Pau Gasol. The 36-year-old Gasol is coming off of back-to-back all-star campaigns with the Chicago Bulls and can still score in bunches, but saying that he’s a step slower than Duncan defensively is charitable. He blocks shots and hauls down boards and hustles. You can’t knock Gasol in that regard, but he’s simply not the overall defensive presence that Duncan is and the pick-and-roll defence will undoubtedly suffer.
The other thing to consider with Gasol is will he limit LaMarcus Aldridge offensively? And if the answer is yes, what will that mean for Aldridge’s future in San Antonio? His first season with the Spurs was fine, but his offensive drop-off from his time with the Portland Trail Blazers was pronounced. His field goal attempts went from 19.9 to 14.1 a night and his PPG dipped to 18.0 from 23.4. Though, he’s denying that he’s unhappy in San Antonio, Aldridge’s situation is one worth monitoring this season.
Elsewhere, the Spurs still have the man who’s arguably the best two-way player in the game in Kawhi Leonard. Leonard – a proven stopper and the two-time defending NBA Defensive Player of the Year – is flourishing offensively (his 21.2 PPG last season was up from 16.5 in the previous year) and still developing a first option scorer. With Leonard, Gasol and Aldridge in the frontcourt, the Spurs will remain a force offensively.
So with Duncan gone and Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker slowing down, it’s not all doom and gloom at the Alamodome. This is still an elite team that should find itself near the top of the Western Conference. It remains to be seen, though, if there’s enough here to supplant the Warriors as the West’s best.