One of our favourite pre-season NFL trends to talk about every season here at TSN Betting has been a team to go from worst to first in its division.
Since conference realignment in 2002, we have seen 27 teams win their division just one year after finishing fourth. And since the league added a 17th game to the regular season in 2021 we’ve had five teams do it in five seasons (2024 was the only year without one).
The Detroit Lions are the popular pick to keep this trend true this year, kicking off the season as the favourites to win the NFC North and one of just two teams on this list shorter than 5-1.
And at 100-1, the Cardinals are priced longer to win their division than 24 teams are to win the Super Bowl.
| Team | Odds to win divison |
|---|---|
| Lions | +155 |
| Saints | +280 |
| Giants | +600 |
| Titans | +950 |
| Raiders | +1600 |
| Jets | +1700 |
| Browns | +2000 |
| Cardinals | +10000 |
Using the past 10 years, let’s take a look at some trends that’ll help us sort out which teams on the list are worth a wager.
| Year | Team | Rookie Contract QB | New Head Coach | Odds to win Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | New England Patriots | Yes | Yes | +550 |
| 2025 | Chicago Bears | Yes | Yes | +625 |
| 2023 | Houston Texans | Yes | Yes | +1100 |
| 2022 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Yes | No | +750 |
| 2021 | Cincinnati Bengals | Yes | No | +2500 |
| 2020 | Washington Football Team | No | Yes | +2200 |
| 2018 | Chicago Bears | Yes | Yes | +800 |
| 2018 | Houston Texans | Yes | Yes | +200 |
| 2017 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Yes | No | +500 |
| 2017 | Philadelphia Eagles | Yes | No | +250 |
| 2016 | Dallas Cowboys | Yes | No | +200 |
Trend 1: No team in the past 10 years has gone from worst to first entering the season 100-1 or longer to win the division
Teams Out: Arizona 100-1
No surprises here. Arizona is expected to be one of the worst teams in the league and are heavy favourites to finish last in the NFC West.
Trend 2: No team in the past 10 years to go from worst to first did it as the favourite to win the division that season.
Teams Out: Lions +155
Sometimes picking winners isn’t as easy as it seems. It’s been 17 years since the 2009 New Orleans Saints went worst to first and won the NFC South as the betting favourites. This season, the Lions look to pick up some of that magic and ride it all the way to a Super Bowl the same way those Saints did.
Trend 3: Nine of the past 10 teams to go worst to first did it with a quarterback on a rookie deal
Teams Out: New York Jets +1700 , Browns +2000
It’s becoming clear that the advantage for teams at this stage of the game is having a difference maker at quarterback while paying him like he’s just a guy.
Trend 4: Only two of the past 11 teams to go from worst to first did it with a rookie quarterback starting majority of the games
Teams Out: Raiders +1600
Did you really think the 16-1 Raiders were going to make it through this? Turns out you want a young QB, just not *too* young of a quarterback. I got a funny little feeling we might see this team again here next year.
Teams Remaining:
New Orleans Saints +280
One of the more popular picks to go worst to first this season is the Saints, and for good reason. Last year the team won five of its closing nine games once quarterback Tyler Shough took over after starting 1-8.
New York Giants +600
With John Harbough now head coach, and Jaxson Dart back for his second season, this Giants team checks the boxes in those key areas and enter with the second-most expensive defensive in the league.
Tennessee Titans +950
Not many people are circling this team in this group of eight, however not many people were saying the New England Patriots were going to win the AFC East last year.
