A good friend of mine loves the Dallas Cowboys and Toronto Maple Leafs enough to never miss a game.
Tonight, he’s got a schedule problem.
The Cowboys host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football.
The Maple Leafs visit the Vegas Golden Knights.
When I asked about his plans, he told me he’ll watch Dallas live and enjoy a blowout win, then switch over to a record of Toronto versus Vegas until he’s caught up.
Then I asked how many goals will Mitch Marner score?
His response, “Gavin McKenna might score three.”
Maybe McKenna doesn’t score three, but it’s clear that Leafs Nation is focused on the present and not the past.
Hockey fans in Toronto spend a decade hoping Marner would develop into the superstar winger that could carry them to a Stanley Cup.
All Vegas has asked him to do is be a key piece to a puzzle that already features Jack Eichel and Mark Stone on the top line, with Marner slotted next to William Karlsson and Brett Howden on a very effective second line.
Marner might never reach 27 goals and 102 points in a season again, but 80 points and some solid two-way play should be more than enough for the Golden Knights.
Meanwhile, Leafs Nation has high expectations for the Calder Trophy favourite McKenna, a seemingly revitalized captain Auston Matthews, and a roster looking to prove doubters wrong after a disappointing 2025-26 season.
Toronto is still a coin toss to make the playoffs at FanDuel.
While Marner gets the headlines, tonight’s clash in Vegas is the start of the most important road trip of the season.
Yes, we’re only one week into the regular season, but the Maple Leafs visit the Golden Knights tonight, then travel to face the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday, followed by a date with the Utah Mammoth on Tuesday.
In terms of travel and strength of opponent, that’s about as tough as it gets for an Eastern Conference team.
Toronto is 2-2-0 through its first four games.
Tuesday’s win over the Nashville Predators was crucial when you consider how difficult it will be to earn two or three points on this road trip.
The Maple Leafs to pull off the upset in Vegas tonight has gone from +134 to +142 at FanDuel.
McKenna, who scored his first career NHL goal in a comeback win over the Nashville Predators on Tuesday night, is +300 to make it two in as many games.
The 18-year-old rookie is +103 to record 1+ points.
For the record, McKenna to score a hat-trick is +22500 at FanDuel, so don’t say that we didn’t warn you.
Matthews is +180 to score and -174 to record 1+ points after exploding for four points in the win over Nashville.
Marner is +200 to score as the fifth choice in FanDuel’s anytime goal market for tonight’s game.
Eichel has the shortest odds to score a goal of any player on either team at +175.
Meanwhile, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are up to -8.5 for tonight’s game against the visiting Buccaneers.
McKenna might not score the hat-trick in Vegas, but nobody will be surprised if Dallas secured a convincing win over Tampa Bay on Thursday Night Football.
Let’s dive into the numbers and lock in a FanDuel Best Bet for Thursday Night Football in this Morning Coffee for Thursday October 8th, 2026.
Can Cowboys Seize Opportunity As Heavy Favourite On Thursday Night Football?
It’s been nearly a full calendar year since the last time the Buccaneers covered the spread in an NFL game.
On October 26th, 2025, Tampa Bay beat the New Orleans Saints 23-3 and covered as a 3.5-point favourite.
13 games later, the Buccaneers are 0-4 straight up and against the spread as one of the NFL’s most disappointing teams right behind the Los Angeles Chargers and the Houston Texans.
It’s easy to forget now, but Tampa Bay was the favourite to win the NFC South at FanDuel entering Week 1.
Last week’s 17-14 loss to the Green Bay Packers at home as a 2.5-point underdog is the closest they’ve got to covering the number, and that was with rookie Jalon Daniels at QB in place of the injured Baker Mayfield.
With Mayfield out three-to-six weeks with a dislocated right thumb, Daniels will get the start again tonight.
The Buccaneers are +350 to upset the Cowboys.
I know at least one guy who would rather take his chances with McKenna anytime goal at +300 than bet on Tampa Bay to win outright tonight.
Dallas is 2-2 straight up and 3-1 against the spread after an impressive comeback win in Houston on Sunday.
The Cowboys are a half-game back of the New York Giants for first place in the NFC East entering Week 5.
With Jaxson Dart sidelined and the Philadelphia Eagles decimated by injuries on both sides of the football, the opportunity is there for Dallas to make a push for the division crown in the NFC East starting tonight.
The Cowboys haven’t been this big of a favourite in any game since 2023, but that shouldn’t be a surprise considering Tampa Bay’s recent futility, Mayfield’s injury, and the fact this game is being played on a short week.
Todd Bowles is 9-15 straight up and 9-13-2 against the spread in 24 games as a head coach on short rest.
The Buccaneers have gone 1-6 in primetime games over the last three seasons, failing to cover by an average of 6.4 points per game.
Mayfield’s season-high was 217 passing yards in the loss to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3.
In his first NFL start, Daniels was held to 148 passing yards and threw two interceptions in a loss to Green Bay.
Daniels did run for 55 yards on eight carries in the loss.
Bucky Irving averaged 3.8 yards per carry for 61 yards.
Tampa Bay’s only shot tonight is to run the football efficiently, limit mistakes, and make some big plays on defence and special teams.
It won’t be easy to slow down a Cowboys offence that just put up 34 points and 399 total yards against the Texans on Sunday.
Prescott has completed 70 per cent of his pass attempts for 1065 yards and eight touchdowns with one pick.
Now he gets to face a Buccaneers defence that has allowed the fifth-highest completion rate (69.4%) and the second-highest yards after the catch percentage (61.8%) in the NFL this season.
Interestingly, Tampa Bay has held its opponents to the second-fewest wide receiver receptions (8.8 per game) and the second-fewest wide receiver receiving yards (105.8 per game) of any NFL defence.
The Buccaneers have also allowed the seventh-most tight end receptions (6.5 per game) and sixth-most tight end receiving yards (68.3 per game).
However, part of that is a small sample size and their schedule of opponents to date, and the Tampa Bay secondary will be down defensive backs Antoine Winfield Jr. and Benjamin Morrison tonight.
Prescott has leaned heavily on his wide receivers early on this season, with CeeDee Lamb at the top of that list.
Lamb absolutely went off with 17 catches for 189 yards and a touchdown in Sunday’s win over the Texans.
He’s cleared 112+ receiving yards in three straight games and leads the NFL in receptions (9.3 per game), receiving yards (124.5 per game) and targets (11.5 per game).
Meanwhile, George Pickens has averaged 6.8 targets per game followed by Ryan Flournoy with 5.3 per game.
Tight end Jake Ferguson and running back Javonte Williams have both averaged 3.8 targets per game.
The Buccaneers have a solid run defence, but its secondary struggled before Winfield and Morrison went down with injuries.
Prescott has an embarrassment of pass target options and depending on how this game plays out, Lamb, Pickens, Ferguson, and even Williams should all be involved in the passing game.
For my FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll target the Dallas defence.
In his first NFL start, Daniels rushed for 55 yards on eight attempts, including a 21-yard run against Green Bay.
Now he faces a Cowboys defence that has allowed the most QB rushing yards in the NFL this season, giving up an average of 47.0 per game.
That mark was even higher before C.J. Stroud ran only twice for 12 yards last week versus Dallas.
In their first three games against Jaxson Dart, Jayden Daniels, and Lamar Jackson, the Cowboys allowed an average of 58.7 QB rushing yards per game, and we cashed the over on the rushing props for all three QBs.
Daniels’ rushing prop has been set at over/under 43.5.
While I lean towards the over, I also really like Dallas to win this game outright, and Cade Otton to be involved in the passing game.
Otton led Tampa Bay 37 yards on four catches and was targeted six times in Daniels’ first NFL start.
He’s cleared 25+ receiving yards in every game.
I’ll lock in a Same Game Parlay with the Cowboys to win, Otton 20+ receiving yards, and Daniels 20+ rushing yards at +100 as a TNF FanDuel Best Bet.
I’ll also take a flyer on Sean Tucker over 10.5 rushing yards as a single play.
Tucker got his first three carries of the year for 10 yards and a touchdown on Sunday versus Green Bay.
Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson talked about getting Tucker more touches moving forward, and it might not just be in short-yardage situations against Dallas.
While I expect Bucky Irving to remain the lead back, facing a Cowboys defence that allowed the fifth-most running back rushing yards (114.3 per game) the first three weeks on short rest seems like the perfect opportunity for Tucker to get some more touches.
Hopefully, he can get the 11 rushing yards I need to cash the over on his rushing prop.
Have a great day, everyone!