Don’t be shy, step onto the bandwagon, there’s plenty of space for everyone hopping back on.
Kawhi Leonard is a Raptor once again and there has not been a more anticipated Media Day than when he arrived the first time.
Coming into this one, the Toronto Raptors are fresh off a transformational season improving by 16 wins and ending a four-year playoff drought.
While the roster remains young and in development mode, an opportunity fell into General Manager Bobby Webster’s lap; one he capitalized on amidst a world of ambiguity.
Kawhi’s cap circumvention investigation was still lingering, he cleared 65 games for just the second time in his seven-year Clippers tenure, and he turned 35 this year, in a league where only 20 players older than him remain.
Though the risks were glaring, when you have a generational, Finals MVP-calibre player up for grabs, the reward justifies the cost.
There is a time and place to push all your chips in.
By no means does Kawhi’s return guarantee a championship or a conference title.
There is a world where Toronto doesn’t even make it to the postseason.
But in a harsh reality check of last year’s roster, there was no championship ceiling.
A Kawhi-led Raptors squad has one.
That’s why all the hype is justified as Toronto welcomes back the most qualified player to ever represent the team.
Ahead of Opening Night, I’ll summarize all their primary betting lines and provide three bets I see the most value on.
Raptors Season-Long Futures
To win the championship: +2200
To win the East: +800
To win the Atlantic: +500
To finish as the 1-seed: +1000
To make playoffs: -290
Win total: 46.5 (-115)
With the return of Kawhi, one overlying sentiment reigns true across all of Toronto’s futures – they have more postseason upside than regular-season upside.
At +1000, Toronto is the 6th choice to finish as the top-seeded East team, yet their odds are the 6th-shortest league-wide, at +2200 to win the chip.
There are 16-game players and there are 82-game players.
Kawhi is a 16-game guy.
What happens between October to April means less this season than last year.
The Raptors have their sights set on Spring hoping to build on last season’s encouraging postseason performance.
Assessing the path to the playoffs, there’s no denying the Eastern Conference has gotten more competitive.
Here’s a list of the main changes in the East:
- Jayson Tatum returns for a full season
- LeBron James is back in the conference
- Giannis Antetokounmpo migrates to Miami
- Tyrese Haliburton rejoins the Pacers, fresh off his Achilles tear
- The Hawks bulk up their depth adding Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and 8th-overall pick, Kingston Flemings
All of these improvements will make the path back to the postseason that much tougher.
That list doesn’t even include play-in quality teams that could surprise in 2026-27.
Based on FanDuel’s published win totals, Toronto is projected to finish as the sixth-seed.
Health will ultimately be their biggest obstacle.
Kawhi isn’t the only player who needs Alex McKechnie, Vice President of Player Health and Performance.
Immanuel Quickley failed to recover in time for the playoffs while RJ Barrett, Collin Murray-Boyles and Jakob Poeltl all logged less than 58 games.
One too many injuries and the Raptors might find themselves sunk into the play-in tournament in a very competitive Eastern Conference.
But I have faith in this player development team.
It’s a perfect transition to my first Raptors future.
Raptors under 6.5 seed (-135)
Am I biased as a Toronto-based media member?
Yes and it should be flagged.
Are several experts in America also eyeing the potential of this uprising Raptors squad?
Absolutely.
As listed above, Toronto is -290 to make the playoffs, a 74.4 percent implied probability.
At -135, you’re getting this bet at a 57.4 implied probability clip.
I like taking that 17 percent margin and betting that they’ll advance without the play-in tournament.
With Kawhi, it’s one thing to compare apples to apples between his value versus Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick’s.
Psychologically, it cannot be understated how impactful his presence will be, as a championship-proven veteran who Scottie Barnes and company look up to.
Looking back at last season, the Raptors seemed content with the rebuild progressing, almost like they were playing with house money.
This year, they go into every game thinking they have a shot to win.
Much was made about Toronto’s record against the best of the best.
They held a 5-22 record (.185) against the top-10 teams in the league.
I’m willing to bet that with Kawhi around, there will be significant improvement on that front.
What also stands to level up is their defence which ranked 5th in the NBA last season.
Even though Kawhi is 35, he still has the defensive awareness to qualify as a massive upgrade over BI.
He finished with 1.9 steals per game last year, his best clip since playing for San Antonio.
The former two-time Defensive Player of the Year partnering with an All-Defensive Team talent could end up being the most disruptive defensive pairing in the NBA.
Add in a sophomore season of CMB who really shined during their seven-game series versus Cleveland and a top-3 finish in defensive rating is well within reason.
Looking above at the five East teams with a higher win total, you can make the case for Toronto leapfrogging a few.
Cleveland lost a lot of bench depth and shooting while James Harden gets ready for his age-37 season.
Detroit is a top regression candidate with Tobias Harris and Isaiah Stewart out the door. There’s also growing contract friction between Jalen Duren and the front office which could hang over them.
Finishing at 46 wins last season and coming in at a 46.5-win total, I think injuries are the only thing holding them back from a higher projection.
Raptors to advance to NBA Cup knockouts (+115)
Last season, the Raptors went a perfect 4-0 in the group stage of the NBA Cup and punched their ticket to the knockouts.
This year, they get another favourable draw.
These are the odds to win their group currently on FanDuel.
Detroit Pistons, +165
Toronto Raptors, +200
Orlando Magic, +260
Milwaukee Bucks, +1700
Brooklyn Nets, +1700
As you can see, Toronto has been donated two generous opponents in Brooklyn and Milwaukee – the two lowest win totals in the conference.
The Raptors will also be favourites against Orlando and will have a competitive matchup with Detroit.
If they sweep once again, they automatically advance.
However, if they lose one of these games, they still have a strong chance to advance as the wildcard team at 3-1.
East Group B is the group of death with all five teams owning a win total above 43.
Those teams could end up in tightly battled contests that would keep their point differential relatively flat.
East Group C has one clear favourite in Boston while the other four teams (Washington, Charlotte, Atlanta, and Chicago) are even enough to prevent point differentials from skyrocketing.
At +115, I like this bet not only because I think Toronto can win outright, you’re paying a 13 percent margin in hopes that they can blowout Brooklyn and Milwaukee with a strong enough point differential.
Scottie Barnes All-Defensive First Team (+195)
The Raptors fanbase justifiably caused a riot online when Barnes was snubbed from the All-Defensive First Team and replaced by Derrick White.
The Celtic guard finished with 58 first-team votes while Barnes got 42.
With Boston shattering expectations and sneaking just ahead of Toronto with the fourth-best defence, White garnered several votes as the only guard on the first team.
This year, I foresee multiple reasons why Barnes might get his due.
Firstly, the Raptors have a legitimate shot to end 2026-27 as a top-3 defence.
Every team with a top-5 defensive rating had one representative on the All-Defensive First Team.
Toronto was the lone exception.
A full season of Kawhi and CMB will make this a terrorizing trio.
I also feel confident that Kawhi’s arrival will alleviate much of the offensive playmaking burden put on Barnes’ shoulders last year.
With more in the tank, he has the chance to conserve his energy and really be a menace on the defensive end.
He showcased that ability throughout the postseason series versus Cleveland and led the league with nine clutch time blocks during the regular season.
His defensive acumen meets the eye-test; his highlight reel is deep enough to earn the respect of voters.
The analytics love him too, as he was top-5 in several advanced metrics like defensive win share and DBPM.
ESPN recently named him the 17th-best player in their top-100 list.
His star is set to continue rising.
