3rd and 1: Best Bets for CFL Week 18

Lessons learned after last week. I won’t lament the paucity of player props or shed tears over a total missed by a half a point. Instead of sob stories, we’ll study the tape.

One big takeaway: Don’t get cute with the kings of the jungle. The Lions have been arguably the best team in the league since their 1-5 start, yet they’re the fourth choice to win the Grey Cup with almost 5-1 odds at FanDuel.

Last week against the defending champs, they controlled the game from the opening kick. Saturday they were only a slight favourite in Toronto, until Argos QB Chad Kelly was ruled out, moving the spread from 1.5 to 4.5. The Lions are 7-1 since Week 9 with their only loss being in Montreal, a place where no visiting team has won this season. They have a legitimate shot to win out, which would give the Elks a sweat for the division title.

At the very least, BC looks poised to host the West Semi for the fourth time in five years. They won the previous three but are 0-3 in the West Final over the same stretch. Is this the year the Lions make the leap?

But first, I reckon there’s never been a game with this much at stake, this late in the season, between two teams that have four wins between them.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Ottawa Redblacks

This is Ottawa’s last best chance to avoid becoming the first team to finish 0-18.

They play the Lions and Argos before another game against the Ticats to end the season in Hamilton. The Redblacks are the favourite for the first time this year and they’re down to +430 to set the unbreakable record for futility.

While they’ve come very close to a victory in two of their past three games, and the offence is better with McLeod Bethel-Thompson under centre, the Redblacks defence is like a dull axe. It doesn’t do the job. They’ve allowed at least 40 points in four of their past five games, and five of their past seven since the start of August.

Hamilton quarterback Harrison Frost just threw for over 200 yards and two touchdowns against the Elks’ second ranked pass defence. Kenny Lawler and Kiondre Smith can exploit Ottawa’s secondary. As motivated as the Redblacks might be to avoid making history, their opponents must want to avoid the embarrassment of being the only team Ottawa can beat.

THE PICK: TIGER-CATS +1.5

PLAYER PROP: LARRY ROUNDTREE OVER 52.5 RUSHING YARDS

The Ticats’ running back has only gone over this number four times this season, but he has yet to play the Redblacks. Ottawa is allowing more than 130 rushing yards a game this season. Roundtree is coming off a 91-yard game against the Elks last week. As long as the Ti-Cats aren’t behind by two scores, they should be committed to the run. In a close game last week, Roundtree had 13 carries.

Calgary Stampeders at Saskatchewan Roughriders

The better team usually wins, especially when it’s the Riders under the lights in Regina.

The defending champs are returning to health at the right time, and while they’re not in danger of missing the playoffs, they no doubt want to re-establish a rhythm down the stretch.

It’s been a revolving door at almost every offensive position this season, except quarterback and No.1 receiver. Trevor Harris to KeeSean Jonhson has been the only consistency and they’ve been remarkable effective even though every defence is trying to take it away. With Kian Schaffer-Baker back in the mix, and AJ Ouellette running downhill, Harris’ options expand.

Only the Redblacks are allowing more points than the Stamps this season. If Vernon Adams Jr is playing from behind, it could lead to picks.

THE PICK: ROUGHRIDERS -4.5

BC Lions at Toronto Argonauts

With Kelly ruled out, the line is moving in favour of the Lions, and it could keep going in that direction. I can’t decide if I preferred the smaller spread with Kelly, or the bigger number with Nick Arbuckle making the start. Either way, I know with certainty that I’m on the Lions.

THE PICK: LIONS -4.5

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Montreal Alouettes

The Bombers brought Dru Brown back to be a capable starter in the event Zach Collaros went down. Brown had a few signature starts in a similar spot for this group back in 2023. But Winnipeg fans are facing a harsh reality that is getting harder to avoid: Collaros can do things that most other quarterbacks aren’t capable of. In his prime, he looked a lot like Davis Alexander does now.

The Als are coming off a bye and looking to accelerate to peak form for the playoffs. They could also get a boost from recently acquired pass rusher Julian Howsare, who makes the Grey Cup favourite even better.

THE PICK: ALOUETTES -6.5