The PGA Tour is back on the mainland after a couple of sunny weeks in Hawaii. The American Express, once known as the Bob Hope Desert Classic, uses three different courses. There’s the Pete Dye Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club and the Nicklaus Tournament Course, all a little different in style and demands. It can make it difficult to find a certain style of golfer or a particular stat to key on because of the differences the layouts. Also, this early in the season means we’re still trying to determine who is playing well. One thing is consistent: the players usually make birdies by the bushel full here with the winning score often into the mid-20s under par. Last year’s winner, Jon Ramm, posted a 27-under-par score.
To win
Patrick Cantlay +900
Cantlay has finished in the top 10 at this event three times in four starts, including a runner-up finish three years ago. He’s been 56 under par over his last three visits, showing he knows how to fill up the cups in the desert. Started the season at the Sentry where he made 25 birdies and an eagle over four days.
Sungjae Im +2000
If you’re looking for someone who can make birdies, here’s your man. At the Sentry, he set a PGA Tour record with 34 birdies over the four days. Most of that was thanks to a hot putter as he led the tournament in putting average with a silky 1.567. When his putter is hot, Im is usually up near the top of the leaderboard. He’s been inside the top 20 at the American Express each of the last five years with a tie for 10th in 2020.
Top 10
Sam Burns +360
Burns has three top 20-finishes at this tournament including a tie for 11th last year. One of the top putters on tour, he was eighth last year in Strokes Gained: Putting, averaging just over 28 putts per round. Will need to be sharp with his approach shots, which has been the focus of much of his off-season preparations.
Adam Hadwin +550
Since there are three courses here this week, it’s really not correct to say his is a horses-for-courses situation for Hadwin, but maybe it could be tournament for horses. He’s eight for eight in making the cut at the American Express and has two runner-ups and a third-place finish. He also posted a round of 59 on the La Quinta course. So all in all, he kind of likes this place and we kind of like the value he offers.
Top 20
Matthieu Pavon +240
A transfer from the DP World Tour, Pavon started his PGA Tour career last week with a tie for seventh at the Sony Open. Known as a very good putter, the Frenchman made 16 birdies and two eagles over the Waialea course, a sign that he has the ability to go low. A bit of a longshot here but he’s offering up some good value.
Christiaan Bezuidenhuit +200
Starting his 2024 PGA Tour season at the American Express where he tied for 11th a year ago. His last start was on the DP World Tour where he posted a third-place finish at the Alfred Dunhill Championship. A solid player in and around the greens which should help him this week. Another good value play this early in the season.
