Morning Coffee: A FanDuel best bet to consider for the 2024 NFL Draft

The Chicago Bears are on the clock.

With the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Bears are expected to select USC quarterback Caleb Williams.

Williams is -30000 to go No. 1 at FanDuel this morning.

For context, that number represents a 99.7 per cent implied probability.

After the first overall pick is announced, things are expected to get very interesting.

Most mock drafts have the Washington Commanders selecting LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels at No. 2, followed by the New England Patriots taking North Carolina QB Drake Maye with the third overall pick.

FanDuel has the top three overall picks to play out in that exact order at -260 odds this morning.

That number represents a 72.2 per cent implied probability.

While I concur that Williams, Daniels, Maye in that exact order is a very real possibility, I also wouldn’t be surprised by anything that happens in the top-five.

The Bears, Commanders, and the Patriots all need to address the quarterback position at the top of the draft.

They aren’t the only teams that have some legitimate concerns at the position right now.

Several teams have a significant need at QB, which has resulted in my initial FanDuel Best Bet for the NFL Draft moving so much that it’s no longer available at a reasonable price.

However, with the demand for the top quarterback prospects as high as it is right now, I believe there are a few unique betting opportunities that are still worth consideration.

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday April 25th, 2024.

A FanDuel Best Bet To Consider For The 2024 NFL Draft

My favourite bet for the 2024 NFL Draft is over 4.5 quarterbacks selected in the first round.

When the market first opened, several sportsbooks had the over 4.5 QBs drafted in the first round at plus-money.

By the time that we rolled out Davis Sanchez’s NFL Path to the Draft series in Sportscentre, over 4.5 quarterbacks selected in the first round was -180.

With +110 in pocket, I doubled down on the over at -180.

That seemed like last call for that market.

24 hours ago, the over 4.5 QBs in Round 1 was -245.

As of this morning, over 4.5 quarterbacks in the first round has been bet all the way to -440 at FanDuel.

That number represents an 81.1 per cent implied probability.

I have Williams, Daniels, and Maye all going inside the top-five picks, with Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Washington’s Michael Penix. Jr., and Oregon’s Bo Nix rounding out the list of quarterbacks that are drafted in the first round.

That’s six quarterbacks among the top-32 picks.

I only need five of them to be selected tonight to cash the over 4.5.

Looking at the long list of NFL Draft markets at FanDuel, you can find McCarthy at -250 to be a top-five pick and at -1200 to be a top-10 pick.

Penix is +1700 to be a top-10 pick and -400 to be a first round pick.

Nix is +125 to be a first-round pick.

That’s where I believe the best value is this morning.

In addition to the Bears, Commanders, and the Patriots, I also have the New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, Seattle Seahawks, and the Los Angeles Rams on my list of teams that should consider drafting a quarterback in the first round.

If I had to guess, Chicago, Washington, New England, Minnesota, Denver, and Las Vegas are the most likely to draft a QB.

At the same time, I won’t overlook the Giants or Rams.

In Peter Schrager’s final mock draft, he has Nix going to the Broncos at No. 12.

Daniel Jeremiah has Nix going to Denver at No. 22.

Over 4.5 quarterbacks is my FanDuel Best Bet for the NFL Draft – but if you bet it already it’s a missed opportunity.

I’ll add Nix to go in the first round at +125 as another FanDuel Best Bet to consider for the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

Hopefully, we see six QBs go in Round 1 tonight.

Regardless of what happens, the NFL Draft is always one of my favourite events on the annual sports calendar.

With several teams potentially in the mix for a trade and so much uncertainty beyond the top picks, it should be another entertaining night.