Morning Coffee: A FanDuel Best Bet for NFL Super Wild Card Weekend

​The road to Super Bowl 58 continues with the NFL Super Wild Card weekend.

The “playoff team” designation has been assigned to the 12 teams still in contention for football’s ultimate prize.

However, taking a closer look at the remaining pool, there remains a massive disparity on the spectrum of teams that have qualified for the postseason.

The San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens are the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences and the obvious favourites to reach the Super Bowl at FanDuel.

At the other end of the spectrum, there are teams like the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers, which have longer odds to win it all right now than many of the teams ahead of them in the Super Bowl futures market have had at any point this season.

Taking a closer look at the spreads for the NFL Super Wild Card Weekend, it’s obvious that the betting market has accounted for some of those disparities with two teams favoured by more than a touchdown at FanDuel.

At the same time, it’s important to keep in mind that the body of work that a team has produced over the course of an entire regular season isn’t necessarily a reflection of a team’s form heading into the postseason.

I believe that is the case for one AFC team in particular.

I’m looking to fade that team with a FanDuel Best Bet for the Super Wild Card Weekend.

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday January 10^th, 2023.

A FanDuel Best Bet For The Super Wild Card Weekend

Only one AFC team finished with a better record than the Miami Dolphins this season.

Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL with 4,624 passing yards.

Tyreek Hill led the NFL with 1,799 passing yards.

Raheem Mostert led the NFL with 18 rushing scores.

The Dolphins ranked No. 1 in total offence and No. 10 in total defence.

None of the above is relevant to Saturday’s NFL Super Wild Card Weekend clash with the Kansas City Chiefs.

On offence, Hill, Mostert, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane and Terron Armstead are all dealing with injuries that have limited them or kept them out in recent weeks.

On defence, Miami will be without Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips, Jerome Baker, Andrew Van Ginkel and Cameron Goode.

Xavien Howard is doubtful to play this weekend, while Jalen Remsey, Jevon Holland and DeShon Elliott are all questionable with various injuries.

The Dolphins head to Kansas City without several of the pieces that were integral to their success this season.

Many of the key pieces that will play are banged up.

The fact that Saturday’s game could be the coldest in Miami’s franchise history likely won’t make it any easier to overcome those injuries.

The Dolphins are 0-10 straight up and 2-8 against the spread in their previous 10 games when the temperature is below 40 degrees Fahrenheit.

In addition to the injuries and frigid conditions, it’s important to keep in mind that Miami really struggled against quality opponents this season.

The Dolphins went 1-5 straight up and against the spread against opponents with a winning record this season.

The lone win was in Week 16 against the Dallas Cowboys.

Taking a closer look at the numbers, Miami went 1-5 with a -15.2 average point differential versus playoff teams this season.

In total, the Dolphins were outscored by 91 points against teams that qualified for the postseason, including a 21-14 loss to Kansas City in Week 9.

Miami has lost five straight games as an underdog and is 0-10 as an underdog in October or later under head coach Mike McDaniel.

Now the Dolphins have to travel to one of the most hostile atmospheres in the NFL to face the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs.

For as ugly as things have looked for Kansas City at times this season, Patrick Mahomes is 6-0 in the Wild Card and Divisional Playoffs.

The Chiefs are relatively healthy with some bodies set to return following a meaningless Week 18 game in which they were able to rest their starters.

Under the current circumstances, Kansas City has the edge at quarterback, the more talented roster, and a distinct home-field advantage heading into Saturday’s contest versus Miami.

Are the Dolphins capable of upsetting the Chiefs?

Yes, I’ve been around long enough to see much more surprising upsets than a Miami win in Kansas City.

Still, I believe the Chiefs are the right side in this one.

I’ll lock in a Same Game Parlay with Isaiah Pacheco to rush for 25 or more yards and Kansas City moneyline at -150 odds at FanDuel.

If you don’t love the juice, you could consider Pacheco 40+ rushing yards or Chiefs -2.5 as alternate options.

I’ll risk 1.5 units to win one unit on KC ML and Pacheco 25+ rushing yards as my FanDuel Best Bet.