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Morning Coffee: Penguins odds to make the playoffs on the move at FanDuel
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The Pittsburgh Penguins have five games left on their regular season schedule.
If they win them all, they’ll advance to the playoffs.
Sounds simple enough, right?
Pittsburgh just won four in a row and six of their previous seven games.
At this point, all the Penguins must do to guarantee a postseason berth is win five games in a row.
Remember, going 5-0 guarantees a playoff spot.
That doesn’t mean they need to go 5-0 to get in.
A 4-1 record might be enough to get in.
Their schedule certainly isn’t going to get any easier.
All five opponents left on Pittsburgh’s regular season schedule have a better record, including two teams they are chasing in the Eastern Conference race in the New York Islanders and the Detroit Red Wings.
Still, nobody expected the Penguins to be within one point of a playoff spot with five games to go.
Pittsburgh’s recent success combined with some late season struggles by the rival Philadelphia Flyers and Washington Capitals has opened the door for a late postseason push.
Regardless of what happens next, the Penguins’ odds to make the playoffs have already moved significantly on at FanDuel.
This is the Morning Coffee for Monday, April 8th, 2024.
Penguins Odds To Make The Playoffs On The Move At FanDuel
Let’s rewind to exactly one week ago.
Sitting at 75 points, Pittsburgh was seven points back of Philadelphia for the final Eastern Conference Wild Card spot with nine games left to play.
The Penguins haven’t lost a game since.
Meanwhile, the Flyers haven’t won a game since.
Suddenly, Pittsburgh is one point back of Detroit for the final Wild Card spot with five games to go.
In addition to a win in Washington, the Penguins pulled off upset wins over the Rangers, Devils, and the Lightning to close the gap on the final playoff spot.
Seven days ago, Pittsburgh was +1200 to make the playoffs at FanDuel.
That number translates to a 7.7 per cent implied probability.
As of this morning, the Penguins are +158 to make the playoffs at FanDuel.
That numbers translates to a 38.8 per cent implied probability.
Pittsburgh is still considered a long shot to make the playoffs, but not nearly as unlikely as they were just a week ago.
Tonight, the Penguins kick off a difficult five-game stretch on the road against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Pittsburgh is +138 to pull off the upset win in Toronto.
Longer odds than they had in wins over the Capitals and Lightning, but shorter odds than they had in wins over the Rangers and the Devils.
A win tonight would give the Penguins’ playoff chances a massive boost.
Remember, if they go 5-0, Pittsburgh is guaranteed a playoff spot.
That doesn’t mean the Penguins have to go 5-0 to make the playoffs.
Would the combination of a win tonight with wins over the Red Wings and Islanders be enough to get in?
Considering what we have seen from the teams competing for that final Eastern Conference Wild Card spot over the past month, a 3-2 record with wins over Toronto, New York, and Detroit might just be enough.
After they missed the playoffs in Sidney Crosby’s rookie season, Pittsburgh made 16 straight postseason appearances before missing it last season.
If they fall ultimately fall short, it would be the first time that the Penguins miss the playoffs in back-to-back seasons since 2003-04 and 2005-06.
With 85 points in 77 games, Crosby has averaged over a point per game while hitting the 40-goal mark for the first time since 2016-17.
Evgeni Malkin is second on the team with 62 points in 77 games.
Anecdotally, it seems like a lot of people are cheering for Crosby and Malkin to drag Pittsburgh back to the playoffs.
If they get there, I don’t think they get out of the first round.
Still, it would be quite the story if the Penguins somehow made it in.
In exactly one week, Pittsburgh’s odds to make the playoffs at FanDuel were cut from +1200 to +158.
With a win tonight in Toronto, those odds would continue to trend in the direction that Penguins’ fans want to see them move.