Morning Coffee: Who will win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?

I’ll bet you a toonie I can hit the ball over Sal’s roof.

Imagine this: It’s 1995, I’m the Home Run Derby favourite every day of the summer and the only kid on the block that could consistently drive a tennis ball over the house of the neighbor who lived across the street.

Coffee money – only it was candy money back then.

I was eight years old.

The sun was shining, school was out, and my dad’s friend Sal who lived across the street was at work all day.

This was during the pre-cell phone era when the only available evidence of what happened while he was at work was the watermarks left by the tennis balls that bounced off his second-floor windows as we cranked one moon shot after another trying to clear that roof.

Five kids meant five sets of three tennis balls in a pack.

Last place had to backyard hop to collect the tennis balls that made it over the roof at the end of each round.

Back then, life was so much simpler, although I wish I had some video evidence of those legendary competitions.

Thanks for the memories, boys.

Three decades later, the 2025 Home Run Derby is on deck, and I’ll be looking to bet more than a couple of toonies on the winner of tonight’s contest.

It’s the one night of the year that the folks at MLB and ESPN get to convince us that glorified batting practice is must-see television and I’m all for it.

It sure beats watching a grown man blow out a candle as he slams a basketball through a hoop in the middle of a long Canadian winter.

Growing up in this country, the NHL All-Star festivities were fun to watch, but it was always the Home Run Derby that separated the MLB All-Star week from its competition among the big four sports.

Tonight, some of baseball’s best will break out the bats and steal the spotlight in the annual slugger showdown.

For the first time in MLB history, a catcher will be the betting favourite to win the Home Run Derby.

This is Morning Coffee for Monday July 14^th, 2025.

Who Will Win The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?

The Toronto Blue Jays had a golden opportunity to extend their AL East division lead before the break.

Toronto was three games up on the rival New York Yankees with six games against the American League’s two-worst teams to finish its first-half schedule.

After winning their first two games against the Chicago White Sox, the Blue Jays dropped three of their next four and finished the first half with a 55-41 record.

Mr. Brightside will tell you that the 55 wins are the most before the MLB All-Star break in franchise history – an impressive feat for a team that could be found as high as 100-to-1 to win its division when it was two games below .500 in late May.

He'll also point to the fact that the Yankees dropped their final two games against the Chicago Cubs over the weekend, which allowed Canada’s baseball team to remain two games up on New York in the AL East.

Still, the Blue Jays to win the AL East jumped from +120 to +185 at FanDuel over the last four days.

The Yankees remain the division favourite at -130.

Toronto’s odds to make the playoffs at FanDuel also lengthened from -900 to -500.

In terms of implied probability, that’s a shift from a 90 per cent chance to an 83.3 per cent chance.

Still a lot more likely than on MLB Opening Day when Toronto was +198 to make the playoffs at FanDuel.

Still less likely than the odds of me painting Sal’s second-floor window with 5+ watermarks before he got back from work on a sunny, summer Monday.

The Blue Jays will host the San Francisco Giants in their first three games after the MLB All-Star break.

After that, Toronto will welcome the rival Yankees to town for a three-game series that could have major implications in the AL East title race.

It could also have major implications in terms of how the Blue Jays management will approach the trade deadline.

If you listened to my chat with our MLB Insider Steve Phillips on GamePlay on TSN1050 Toronto on Friday, you know that he thinks the Blue Jays should go all-in and try to win a World Series this season.

Toronto to win the World Series is +2400 at FanDuel.

Let’s revisit where that number lands post-deadline.

In the meantime, the Home Run Derby is on deck tonight.

For the first time ever, a catcher is the favourite to win it.

Seattle Mariners slugger Cal Raleigh leads the majors with 38 home runs this season – three clear of the AL MVP Aaron Judge.

Raleigh’s MLB-best 38 home runs are the most by a primary catcher before the All-Star break in MLB history.

It’s also the second-most by any player before the break ever, regardless of position.

Barry Bonds set the all-time MLB record with 39 homers before the break back in the 2001 season.

Tonight, Raleigh will try to become the first catcher to win the Home Run Derby as the favourite at +300.

He’ll also try to become the first player to win the Home Run Derby after leading the majors in home runs over the first half since Judge accomplished that feat in 2017.

The last favourite that won the Home Run Derby was Pete Alonso back in 2019.

If it isn’t Raleigh, then who has the best chance to win it?

Pittsburgh Pirates slugger Oneil Cruz is a close second choice to win the competition at FanDuel at +330.

Washington Nationals youngster James Wood is +400 as the third choice in that market.

Wood and Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays are both just 22 years old – the youngest players in this year’s field.

It’s the first Home Run Derby with multiple participants under the age of 23 since 2019, when a 20-year-old Vladimir Guerrero lost to Alonso in the finals despite setting a contest record with 91 total home runs.

Per the FanDuel traders, Raleigh is tied with Woods as the most popular bets to win the Home Run Derby.

21 per cent of the bets are on Raleigh.

21 per cent of the bets are on Woods.

Caminero is +950 to win the Home Run Derby – only Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm of the New York Yankees have longer odds to win it.

Byron Buxton (+850) of the Minnesota Twins and Matt Olson (+900) of the Atlanta Braves, who will replace his teammate Ronald Acuna Jr., round out the top five choices to be crowned the Home Run Derby Champion.

As a former repeat Home Run Derby champion myself, I guess you can consider an expert on the subject matter.

In terms of my FanDuel Best Bets, I’ll take Cruz to win the Home Run Derby at +330.

I’ll also lock in Cruz to make the finals at +152.

All eight competitors will receive $150,000 USD for participating in the competition, but there’s a lot more money on the line beyond that.

The runner-up will get an additional $500,000 USD.

The winner will take home $1 million.

That’s a lot of toonies.

It’s also more than the 26-year-old Cruz will make this season with the Pirates.

While I’m a little concerned about the hip flexor he suffered on Saturday, and the fact that his 16 home runs are the fewest in this year’s field, Cruz was able to pinch-hit in Sunday’s game against the Minnesota Twins, and he should be very motivated to deliver tonight.

Pittsburgh isn’t a playoff contender, and Cruz is a veteran player that can secure a big payday by winning tonight’s Home Run Derby.

Per the FanDuel traders, Cruz is the third-most popular pick to win the Home Run Derby with 13 per cent of the bets.

I’ll also jump on Wood to make the semi-final round at -164, Buxton to make the semi’s at +108, and Rooker to make the semi’s at +128.

Hopefully, we can sweep all five FanDuel Best Bets for this year’s Home Run Derby.

Coffee money.

Enjoy the annual slugfest, everyone!