Best bet for Game 1 between Leafs and Panthers

For the second time in three years the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers meet in the second round of the NHL Playoffs.

The Panthers got the best of Toronto in five games two years ago. This year a bet on Florida to do the same is priced at +460 on FanDuel.

Florida enters this series with the shortest price in the East to win the conference at +175 with Toronto third on the list at +400.

The Panthers are looking to become the first team since the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2020-21 to win back-to-back Stanley Cups, while Toronto is trying to reach the third round for the first time since 2002.

Despite Toronto having home-ice advantage, they enter as underdogs in Game 1 and the series. 

Let’s take a look at a few storylines to monitor before handing it off to Domenic Padula as TSN’s Senior Sports Betting Analyst gives us his best bet for the night.

Can Toronto keep scoring?

The Maple Leafs' first-round goal scoring wasn’t an issue this year, as the team scored at least three goals in five of the six games against Ottawa.

Looking at their playoff history, the Leafs scored at least three goals only once in seven games last year against the Boston Bruins and five times in their previous 19 playoff games before this season.

In 2023, when these two teams met in the second round, Toronto scored 10 goals in five games, scoring exactly two goals in all five.

Toronto’s over/under for total goals in Game 1 has been set at 2.5 with the over at -128 and the under priced +100.

Here comes Brad Marchand

It’s been more than 10 years and Brad Marchand is a pain in the side of Maple Leaf fans that just won’t go away.

Over his 16-year NHL career, the 36-year-old has 21 goals and 58 points in 59 games against Toronto during the regular season.

Last year, he had eight points in the first four games of Toronto’s first-round series against Boston before being held without a point over the final three as the Bruins advanced.

This year, he has played the Leafs twice as a Panther, logging one assist.

In 162 playoff games, Marchand has 56 goals and 142 points. In 28 postseason games against the Leafs, he has 10 goals and 29 points.

Marchand is +116 to record a point and +320 to score in Game 1.

DOM’S BEST BET FOR GAME 1 

The Maple Leafs fought hard to end the Battle of Ontario in six games. A second round date with the defending Stanley Cup champion Panthers represents a major step up in class of opponent.

Florida dominated the Tampa Bay Lightning in Round 1, winning that series in five games. I'm on the Panthers to win this series.

I also penciled in Florida ML as a FanDuel Best Bet in Morning Coffee.

As for a player prop to consider, I'll go with a builder Same Game Parlay that features Sam Reinhart 2+ shots on goal, Sam Bennett 2+ shots on goal, and Matthew Knies 1+ shot on goal at -123.

Bennett and Reinhart led Florida with 17 and 16 shots on goal, respectively, in the first round.

Both players had a minimum of 2+ shots on goal in four of the five games.

Meanwhile, Matthew Knies registered at least one shot on goal in every game of Toronto's first round series versus Ottawa, including a series-high six shots on goal in Game 5.

Knies had nine shots on goal in three games against the Panthers in the regular season.

Bennett 2+ shots on goal went 3-for-3 in the regular season.

Reinhart 2+ shots on goal went 3-for-4. While I like Florida to win the game, I'm interested to see how both teams look in Game 1.

I'll go with this builder SOG SGP as a FanDuel Best Bet.

Make sure to give me a follow @Domenic Padula on X for my full card for tonight's game.