The Blue Jays swept the Seattle Mariners over the weekend in an important result as the calendar flips to September.
The Mariners are the team that has underachieved more than any other this season – even more than the Jays. They are much better than they have performed. Most analysts believe that, at some point, both Toronto and Seattle can get hot and blast past the group of teams all within reach of the third wild-card spot. Or, in Seattle’s case, jump to the top of the American League West.
With the sweep over the Mariners, the Jays are now within a game and a half of the Cleveland Guardians (69-68) for the final AL wild-card spot. The Baltimore Orioles (68-69) sit between them in the standings, just a game behind Cleveland.
Toronto has a day off Monday and then begin September in Cleveland. The Guardians are playing excellent baseball right now, and have won eight of their past 10 games. The Jays have won three straight, so both teams are ready for this big series.
The Guardians will have the advantage in the game on Tuesday with their ace, Gavin Williams, on the mound versus Jays’ righty Spencer Arrighetti. Williams is 12-7 with a 3.98 ERA. He has major swing-and-miss stuff, as evidenced by his 204 strikeouts in 156 innings pitched. Williams has cut down on his walks allowed this year, which has been a big part of his success. He has allowed 27 homers, although 17 have been solo shots.
Dylan Cease (vs. Joey Cantillo) is on the mound Wednesday for Toronto, followed by Jose Soriano (vs. TBD) on Thursday. The Jays will have their two best starters throwing against the team with the best record remaining on their schedule. In fact, the Guardians are the only team currently over .500 left on the Jays’ schedule.
Winning this series is critical in the pursuit of the third wild-card spot. As much as seeking sweeps in every series is ideal, it’s not realistic. The Jays need to focus on winning each series left in the season.
If the Jays win every series on their remaining schedule they would go 16-8 over the final 24 games. That would get them to an 84-78 record and would very likely mean October baseball. But that’s asking a lot from a team that has not played at that level this season. If they can get to 82 or 83 wins they would still have a good shot of getting in to the playoffs.
Pitching concerns down the stretch
The major concern I have for the Jays to win 14 to 16 of their remaining 24 games is the starting pitching.
I feel good every time Cease and Soriano are on the mound. But it doesn’t mean they will win every one of their starts. I’m concerned about the other three spots in the rotation.
Sure, Max Scherzer had a whale of a game on Sunday, throwing seven one-hit, shutout innings while striking out 10 Mariners. He looked like the Max of old instead of old Max. I just don’t trust what the next start will look like and which Max will show up.
It’s much the same story with Arrighetti, but his issues are inexperience, health and consistency rather than age.
And then the final spot in the rotation is a bullpen day, which is a lot to ask of your relievers at this time of the season. The workload the Jays’ bullpen has shouldered so far this season has been extraordinary. There are 17 pitchers in all of baseball with 62 appearances or more and four of them are Blue Jays. It’s tough to expect that multiple pitchers will all be at their best on a given day after such usage. Plus, they need to be their sharpest in support of the other starters. Once again, it is a lot to ask.
The offence will also be critical over the last 24 games. The pitching could certainly use some margin for error.
There have been nice contributions from Brett Bateman, Nathan Lukes, George Springer and Alejandro Kirk recently, but still no Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It sure feels like the only way the Jays will go 14-10, 15-9, or 16-8 the rest of the way is if Guerrero finds his way out of the abyss. Short of that, the Jays will need the rest of the teams around them in the standings to all falter.
Spitting Seeds
- Cubs’ outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is making a very strong statement that there is a new sheriff in town in the NL MVP race. Shohei Ohtani is shooting for his fifth MVP award and started the season as the odds-on favorite. But the 24-year-old PCA has a shot at a 40-40 season as he currently has 38 homers and 32 stolen bases. He is hitting .283/.377/.587, and his bWAR is the best in baseball at 8.3. His fWAR is the best too at 9.1. Of course, Ohtani can really hit and he also pitches, but injuries have limited Ohtani (bWAR is 6.6/fWAR is 6.9) this year on the mound. At this point, I feel it is safe to assume that the NL MVP award is PCA’s to lose.
- I know everyone assumes the Dodgers will three-peat this year but they are going to make it tough on themselves. They are going to win the NL West but currently they have the third-best record amongst the three division leaders, which means they would have to play in the wild-card round. As of today, they would face the San Diego Padres in a best-of-three series. This could be dangerous for them because the Padres know them so well. If they win that series, they would face the Milwaukee Brewers, who have the best record in baseball, in the Division Series. If the win that series they would have to play either the Braves, Phillies or Cubs. That’s a very tough road.
- The Phillies and Cubs are tied at 77-60 for the top two wild-card spots in the National League. The Cubs own the tiebreaker. Whichever team ends up with the best record will host the best-of-three wild-card series. The Phillies have a tough schedule remaining, facing the Diamondbacks (three games), Braves (seven games), Astros (three games), Mets (four games), Nationals (two games), Brewers (three games) and Rays (three games). The Cubs face the Brewers (seven games), Marlins (six games), Pirates (three games), Reds (three games), and the Red Sox (three games). Home-field advantage will be critical in this matchup. I think the Phillies will end up the top wild-card seed and host of the series.
