The clock is ticking down on the 2026 MLB regular season, and the Toronto Blue Jays’ playoff bid is on borrowed time entering the final week.
The Jays salvaged the finale in Texas Sunday after dropping the first two games of the series, jumping on Rangers starter Jacob deGrom early in a 7-2 win. It was the kind of balanced output from the lineup that has been missing for most of the season as they totalled 11 hits with five different players driving in at least one run.
However, it might have been too little, too late.
The Blue Jays (77-79) get out of bed Monday morning trailing the Chicago White Sox (80-76) by three games in the race for the final American League wild-card spot. The deficit in actuality is four games, since the White Sox hold the tiebreaker over Toronto, who would need to finish ahead in the standings to earn that spot.
The Cleveland Guardians, the team the Jays have been chasing for the better part of the past few weeks where they did hold the tiebreaker, now lead the AL Central by one game and are four up on the Jays.
The Rangers, who the Jays dropped two of three to over the weekend, now lead the AL West by a game over the Houston Astros. They begin play Monday with the same record as Toronto and could present yet another obstacle to the Jays’ dwindling postseason hopes if they get hot.
According to FanGraphs, the Blue Jays’ playoff odds sit at just 3.5 per cent.
No matter how you word it, they have to make up an incredible amount of ground in an incredibly short time.
The Blue Jays open a three-game series in Baltimore against the Orioles Monday night and are off Thursday before returning home to take on the Cincinnati Reds in their final series of the season.
Both the Orioles (effectively) and the Reds (officially) have been eliminated from playoff contention, but the favourable remaining schedules are shared by both Cleveland and the White Sox, who play three of their four combined series this week against teams already eliminated.
With no games remaining against anyone they’re chasing, the Jays do not have control of their own destiny. Even if they do manage to win all six of their remaining games – which is highly unlikely considering they haven’t had that long a winning streak all season – they would need either the Guardians or White Sox to win no more than twice.
Say the Jays have one hiccup and win five of six, they’d need either Cleveland or Chicago to go 1-5 to make up the necessary ground.
Both of those teams have played well lately as the White Sox have won three of four and the Guardians five straight. With each of them eyeing the AL Central crown and home-field advantage in any potential wild-card playoff series, they’re sure to put their best foot forward over the final week of play.
To make matters worse for the Jays, they left their series against the Rangers with a pair of key injuries.
Ace Dylan Cease’s velocity was down noticeably in his start Friday, continuing a late-season trend the Jays had up to this point had described as wear and tear. However, Cease lasted just 2.2 innings in Friday’s loss and is scheduled to have an MRI on his throwing shoulder this week. He has already been scratched from his scheduled start on Wednesday and manager John Schneider told reporters the results of the MRI, coupled with the team’s position in the standings, will determine if he starts again in 2026.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. left Sunday’s finale in the fourth inning with lower-back tightness. Schneider said Guerrero aggravated his back stretching for a ball at first a few games ago and was tight on Sunday. Schneider added the team is hopeful Guerrero will be able to play Monday in Baltimore.
One bit of positive injury news for the Jays is Monday night’s starter. Right-hander Trey Yesavage gets the ball in his return from meniscus surgery on his left knee that has kept him out since Aug 4.
The 23-year-old went just two-thirds of an inning in a rehab start at Triple-A Buffalo last week but said he felt good, which was far more important than his stat line according to Schneider. It’s not likely Yesavage will be able to give the Jays much length Monday since he hasn’t had time to build his arm back up, but with the team in dire need of pitching help amid a pile of injuries, Yesavage’s thumbs-up from a health perspective was enough to bring him back for the first of several must-win games this week.
Max Scherzer is scheduled to pitch Tuesday followed by a string of TBDs the rest of the way.
