With an 84-point lead in the drivers’ standings, it is looking increasingly likely that Kimi Antonelli will be crowned F1’s youngest world champion in the next two months.
Determining when and where that coronation will likely take place is much harder to say, not least because there are still question marks over how many races remain in the F1 calendar.
Antonelli’s closest competitor, Mercedes teammate George Russell, saw his title chances take a critical blow when he retired from Sunday’s Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia with an engine failure, and a related grid penalty at this weekend’s Singapore Grand Prix will make his job tougher still.
Meanwhile, Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris and Max Verstappen all remain in mathematical contention for this year’s championship, but face even tougher routes to the title than Russell due to their greater points deficits.
When could Antonelli win his first title?
In theory, the earliest Antonelli could seal the title is at the U.S. Grand Prix in Austin later this month. In order to do so, he would need to grow his gap over Russell by 42 points in two race weekends, while outscoring Lewis Hamilton in third place by 20 points.
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Even with extra points on offer at the sprint race in Singapore this weekend, such a scenario would likely require victories for Antonelli and further retirements for Russell, while ensuring Hamilton is not in the fight for second place on the podium behind Antonelli. In addition, an Austin crowning would require Antonelli to make sure he is not outscored by three points by Leclerc, and six points by both Norris and Verstappen.
What does Antonelli need to claim the title?
Perhaps the easiest way to look at Antonelli’s title run-in is that he needs to score 100 points over the remaining races to ensure he ends up as champion -- regardless of what any of his rivals manage.
With seven grands prix and a sprint race currently scheduled on the calendar, that route could be achieved with multiple different result combinations -- but for ease of an example, third place at every remaining race would comfortably see Antonelli over the line even if Russell wins at all seven grands prix and the sprint.
F1’s rules state that if multiple drivers are tied on points, a countback of victories will decide who emerges on top. If the number of victories are also even, it then goes to second places, third places, fourth place, and so on. Currently, Antonelli has eight victories to Russell’s three, although Russell has four second places to Antonelli’s three. It’s unlikely those countbacks will come into play, but it’s why, currently, Antonelli needs 100 points rather than 99 to put the title entirely beyond Russell’s grasp.
But how many races are actually left?
The situation is further complicated by question marks hanging over the final two races of the season in Qatar and Abu Dhabi. F1 has made clear that it intends to finish the season as scheduled, but the ongoing war between the United States and Iran has the potential to force the cancellation of both rounds.
The same conflict led the cancellation of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix in April, while Bahrain took the unusual approach of hosting its round 4,000 miles away from the island kingdom in Malaysia last weekend.
If Qatar and Abu Dhabi are also cancelled, F1’s contingency plan is to host the final round of the season in Imola. Such a scenario would remove 25 of the potential points on offer, meaning Antonelli would only need 75 points between now and the end of the season to be crowned champion. Austin would still be the earliest round at which he could clinch the title, but it would come with a more achievable target of outscoring Russell by 17 points across the Singapore and U.S. race weekends rather than 42.