3rd And 1: Best Bets for CFL Week 19

Every year at this time, gratitude is paid for the gifts of the growing season. Not always does the holiday have such a bountiful harvest to enjoy. I don’t mean to dampen the mood, but it would be a shame to spend the surplus we’ve accumulated on a lavish celebration. There are still a few short weeks to stock the shelves before the ground freezes, and the 113^th Grey Cup is hoisted. Let’s keep our heads screwed on straight and finish the season strong is all I’m saying. It should be a fun-filled weekend of three down football and turkey dinner. Happy Thanksgiving!

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Edmonton Elks

The impact the quarterback can have on the entire football can’t be understated. The Ti-Cats had the best offence in the league through three games and looked like they would challenge the Alouettes for the East Division title. Then Bo Levi Mitchell went down, and the Ti-Cats went from averaging over 37 points a game to averaging under 20 points a game. But since Harrison Frost returned from a brief injury four weeks ago, Hamilton is back to averaging almost 30 points a game. Frost had a career-high 342 yards in last week’s win with two touchdowns, while completing 80 percent of his passes. He looked impressive, and the team had juice on both sides of the ball, but I would be much more confident in their ability to repeat that performance if it wasn’t against the winless Redblacks.

Meanwhile, the Elks have been at the top of the West all season, but the offence has sputtered a little lately. Edmonton has failed to cover spread in back-to-back games. They needed overtime to beat these Ti-Cats at home before a week off to heal their bumps and bruises. Edmonton is 2-0 coming off a bye this season and they’ve been impressive both times. They became the first team to down the Alouettes, coming off their week 2 bye. Then they recorded back-to-back wins over the Stamps starting with the Labour Day Classic. The Elks can guarantee a home playoff game with a win. The herd should bring the heat to Hamilton.

The Pick: Elks -6.5

Player Prop: Justin Rankin Over 64.5 Rushing Yards

Rankin averaged 6.7 yards per carry last game against the Ti-Cats, finishing with 74 rushing yards on just 11 carries. He also caught four passes for 42 yards in a close game. Since I expect the Elks to cover the spread, Rankin’s touches should be more skewed toward rushing the ball. He still has a chance to catch Brady Oliveira for the league lead in rushing yards, there’s no reason to rest him yet. Lost in the Ti-Cats big win last week was that their run defence gave up 74 yards to Daniel Adeboboye on just 7 carries.

Ottawa Redblacks at BC Lions

The Lions still have a chance to catch the Elks for first in the West. At the very least, they’re in the driver’s seat to host a playoff game for the fourth time in five years. A wimba-way, a wimba-won’t.. I don’t see Ottawa catching the Lions sleeping tonight. The only concern is that BC benches its starters after stockpiling an insurmountable lead. It’s worth mentioning that Zander Horvath is three TDs away from tying Mike Pringle for the CFL single season record for rushing touchdowns. He’s -350 to score one, but I think there’s valuer on 2+ at +175, or even 3+ at +750. For him to set the record with 4+ tonight pays 33-1 at Fanduel.

The Pick: Lions -13.5

Calgary Stampeders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers

The Bombers are getting Zach Collaros back after another head injury. Instead of it leading to retirement, he says he’s looking forward to playing next year. There’ no doubt he will bring an emotional boost to the Bombers, but I’m not certain what he can bring to the field against the Stamps. Calgary is coming off a surprising win over the defending champs. Too many question marks to make an informed prediction. Perhaps that’s why I’m looking forward to this one the most.

The Pick: No Pick

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Montreal Alouettes

The Als have locked up the East division title and a first-round bye with three games left to play. In this situation, it’s always a debate between rust and rest. How much rest is advantageous before rust sets in? I’d argue that even if their starters played every snap for the rest of the year, motivation matters. Tyson Philpot still has a chance to set the CFL receiving yards record, and Davis Alexander still needs to finish his MOP season strong, however many more games that may be. While individual awards and milestones might not be enough to rev an entire team, the Als also have the chance to finish with a perfect home record; something they haven’t done since 2008. They finished 9-0 at home that year before claiming the 97^th Grey Cup. On the other side, the defending champs have gone 2-5 since week 10, after starting 6-2. Something is wrong with the Riders even as they return to health.

The Pick: Alouettes -5.5