3rd and 1: Best Bets for the 113th Grey Cup

It wasn’t until 1954, in the 42^nd Grey Cup, that Montreal and Edmonton first faced off for the CFL’s silver chalice. It was the first of three straight Grey Cups between the two franchises with Jackie Parker giving Edmonton the edge in all three. Since then, they’ve met in the Grey Cup more than any other two teams. Sunday marks their 12^th meeting. Edmonton is 8-3 against the Alouettes in the final. Their last Grey Cup encounter was a classic in 2005. Ricky Ray led Edmonton to an overtime victory over Anthony Calvillo and company. Edmonton didn’t return to the Grey Cup until 2015 when Mike Reilly hoisted it. That was the franchise’s last big game appearance. It wasn’t supposed to the Elks year. They had the longest odds to win the Grey Cup when the season started. Meanwhile, Montreal was the favourite at FanDuel then and they’re the favourite now. The Als have been to three of the last four Grey Cups and they’ve already put their hands on this year’s individual hardware. The league’s Most Outstanding Player and Most Outstanding Canadian have a chance to cap an historic season with a championship. Standing in their way, with a pronounced chip on his shoulder, and salty from his award snub is Cody Fajardo. Fresh off falling short for MOP, the sting is still there from losing his job to Davis Alexander two years ago. And that was after winning a ring for the Als in 2023 and being the game’s MVP. Always the underdog. Good thing for Fajardo because underdogs are 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 Grey Cups, with five straight up victories. The storylines are sweet for the 113^th Grey Cup.

Montreal Alouettes vs Edmonton Elks

One thing’s for certain: these were this year’s two best teams. As much as Fajardo wants to believe that nobody noticed, it was a statistically outstanding season from the ten-year veteran. Alexander was just a little better. The Elks and Als split their season series with each team winning at home. Edmonton came from behind to win on a walkoff score from Fajardo in overtime back in week 2. The Als posted 48 points in the week 10 rematch with Alexander throwing four touchdown passes and rushing for one more. Alexander had over 350 passing yards in each game against the league’s best defence while the Elks still scored at least 30 points in each contest. It pains me to pick a side, but if forced I’d lean toward the favourite. As sweet as the storylines is the forecast. Relatively warm, dry and clear conditions are expected in Calgary for kickoff. Just two outdoor finals in the last 12 years have gone over the projected total for this game, and both went to overtime. However, this could the warmest Grey Cup played outdoors since the chinooks last swept across the Rockies to touch the Cup in 2009. Warm temperatures and red-hot offence could lead to a lot of points. I’m betting on both teams executing on offence, and that it results in an instant classic that comes down to the final drive.

The Pick: Over 55.5 Total Points

Player Prop: Davis Alexander Over 16.5 Rushing Yards

The MOP ran for his only touchdown of the season against the Elks in week 9. But before being hampered by his hamstring last year, Alexander was known for his legs. The Als weren’t forced into many must have 2^nd downs this season, but when they need a big play in the playoffs, Alexander is often tucking it and taking off. And he often invites contact. Alexander had 25 rushing yards on five carries in last week’s East Final. He had 32 rushing yards and a touchdown in last year’s East Semi. He then had 62 rushing yards in the East Final against the Ti-Cats before hurting his hamstring. And on one leg, with a noticeable limp in last year’s Grey Cup game, he still racked up 14 rushing yards. Especially if the Elks look to limit Philpot and Snead, there will be room to run.

Player Prop: Austin Mack Over 76.5 Receiving Yards

Another Alouettes castaway coming off a career year. Mack was fifth in CFL receiving yards this season with 1,254 yards in his first with Edmonton. He had 6 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown in last week’s West Final against the lions. He also had 9 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown in his last game against Montreal in week 10.

Player Prop: Charleston Rambo over 42.5 Receiving Yards

His quarterback called him an x-factor this week, saying you never know when he could go for a big one. Charleston Rambo had 117 yards in last week’s East Final. After listening to Alexander speak on Rambo’s speed and potential, I can’t help but believe his quarterback will give him a shot on Sunday.

Grey Cup MVP longshot? Tyrice Beverette +8000

With so much fire power on offence, it’s hard to envision a defensive MVP. However, it’s worth mentioning that Beverette ranks first in several defensive categories in the playoffs since 2022. He’s played the most playoff snaps. He has three forced fumbles and five tackles for a loss. He forced the game clinching fumble last week. Beverette is a big game player.