3rd And 1: Best bets for Week 20 of the CFL season

Can you smell it? A mixture of damp earth, decaying leaves and wood smoke is blended with a cinnamon and cardamom musk as the wind swirls, and the temperature fluctuates into freezing range. Smells like playoff football to me. Yet, with two weeks left in the regular season, and with every playoff spot in the West still up for grabs, our attention is glued on a game that would be described as meaningless if not for one juicy detail. The Redblacks have two more chances to avoid the dubious distinction of being the first team in the modern era to finish a season without a victory. It was a 19-1 futures bet two months ago, now -250 at FanDuel. Ottawa turns to Bryson Barnes for their final home game ahead of next week’s season finale in Hamilton. I want to believe, but…

Toronto Argonauts at Ottawa Redblacks

Barnes is making his first CFL start and he’ll be without Ottawa’s best receiver in Justin Hardy, who’s inching closer to the franchise’s record for receptions. If the Redblacks are going to have any hope to win, it’s going to be because they caught the Boatmen on bad day. That’s possible. Chad Kelly almost gave the game away the last time they played with two red zone interceptions. He threw four picks in their first meeting back in week 3, but the Argos still somehow won by 20 points. As frustrating as his decision-making can be at times, Kelly’s arm talent undeniable. With his arsenal of receivers against this Redblacks secondary, there’s no number of mistakes he can’t come back from. Knock wood.

The Pick: Argonauts -10.5

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Edmonton Elks

The Elks can clinch their first division title since 2015 with a win. If not, it could get interesting with a trip to Saskatchewan next week against the defending champs potentially playing for their playoff lives. Edmonton’s offence has stalled a little of late. Justin Rankin and the run game in general have gone cold, while Cody Fajardo has zero touchdown passes and three interceptions in his last three games. The Elks have still won six of their last seven thanks to a defence that’s allowing the fewest points and yards per game. They’ve forced the most turnovers and made the most tackles for a loss. They’re also second in sacks after Malik Carney had four last week to takeover the individual league lead. It’s an elite unit playing at a high level. But Zach is back for the Bombers. Collaros made his return to lead them to a season-saving win over the Stamps last week. Now they sit third in the West when a crossover spot seemed like all they could hope for a couple of weeks ago. The Bombers are 6-4 with Zach under centre versus 2-4 when he doesn’t start. His receiving corps is healthy at the right time and Dorian Singer has emerged as a dangerous deep threat. Of course, The Bombers greatest advantage comes on the ground.

The Pick: Blue Bombers +3.5

Player Prop: Brady Oliveira Over 69.5 Rushing Yards

While he’s been quiet in back-to-back weeks (by his standards), Oliveira had over 100 yards in five of his previous seven games, including 118 yards in Edmonton at the end of August. He also went over this number in his first game against the Elks in week 4. The league’s leading rusher had three carries of 10 or more yards in each of those games. He’s usually handed the ball whether the Bombers are ahead or not. The Elks aren’t as good against the run as they are the pass, but they’re still third in the league allowing an average of just over 80 rushing yards a game. That’s a ten yard cushion on what he gets to go over his rushing yards prop. And Brady’s better than average.

Montreal Alouettes at Saskatchewan Roughriders

Montreal has nothing left to play for this regular season, except to be sharp for the East Final on November 7^th. The Als are sitting most of their offence. Who knows how many defensive starters will finish the game. The Riders desperately need a reset. They should take advantage of the Als generosity after getting a whooping last week.

The Pick: Roughriders -5.5

BC Lions at Calgary Stampeders

Since Labour Day, the Stamps have one win against a team other than the Redblacks. It was a season-saving upset in Saskatchewan two weeks ago. I give Calgary credit for staying alive. They looked cooked. If the Elks win, BC would clinch second place in the West and would have less to play for. But if the Elks lose, this line could be a lot larger by kickoff with the Lions smelling fresh prey in the form a stumbling herd. Either way, I’ll back the better team.

The Pick: Lions -2.5