Aaron Rodgers promised there is zero debate this will be his final season in the NFL.
The only question now is whether he has enough left in the tank for one final playoff run.
If you asked me a week ago, I would have told you there was no chance he’d make it back again.
The Pittsburgh Steelers were coming off a humbling 21-3 loss at the hands of the New England Patriots, matching the fewest points Rodgers and Mike McCarthy had scored in 172 games as a QB-head coach duo.
The Steelers had gone 20 straight offensive drives without a touchdowns.
Rodgers didn’t have a single completion over 20 air yards.
Then a funny thing happened in Week 3.
Rodgers connected on a pair of 20+ yard TD passes in the first quarter of a 30-27 win over the AFC North rival Cincinnati Bengals.
Rodgers racked up 292 passing yards, and three TD passes in the victory, joining Tom Brady and George Blanda as the only players aged 42 or older to throw three TDs in a game in NFL history.
Pittsburgh’s odds to make the playoffs were cut from +260 to +205 at FanDuel.
It was a significant move, but their updated odds still carried only a 32.8 per cent implied probability that the Steelers will qualify for the postseason.
That’s not very good for a Pittsburgh team with an opportunity to climb into sole possession of first place in the AFC North with a win tonight.
Do the Steelers deserve to be overlooked as a contender?
Or should we jump on the potential value on the board by betting on Rodgers to lead Pittsburgh to the playoffs?
Let’s dive into the numbers and lock in a FanDuel Best Bet for Thursday Night Football in this Morning Coffee column for Thursday October 1st, 2026.
Can Aaron Rodgers Get Steelers Back To The Playoffs In Final NFL Season?
The Steelers, Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, and Cleveland Browns are tied for first place in the AFC North at 2-1.
Tonight, Rodgers and company can take sole possession of first place with a primetime win over the rival Browns on Thursday Night Football.
Yes, it’s still early, but it’s impossible to overstate the importance of every division game for Pittsburgh.
A year ago, the Steelers finished 10-6 and won the AFC North thanks to a 4-2 record versus division opponents that featured a missed field goal by Tyler Loop of the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18 to clinch the division title.
The four-time NFL MVP Rodgers would have been headed home early if Loop made that field goal.
Instead, Pittsburgh won the division, Baltimore was eliminated, and the Ravens overhauled their coaching staff in the offseason.
Fast-forward to the current AFC North picture, and the Steelers are a distant third choice to win the division at +900 at FanDuel behind the Ravens and Bengals.
That current number represents a 10 per cent implied probability that Pittsburgh will win the division title.
Baltimore is priced as an obvious favourite at -130.
Cincinnati is a close second choice at +175.
Meanwhile, the Browns remain an afterthought at +2200 to win the AFC North and +530 to make the playoffs.
A year ago, a 13-6 Steelers loss in Cleveland in Week 17 opened the door for a Week 18 winner-take-all showdown between Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
Pittsburgh won four of its first five games but didn’t qualify for the playoffs until their final play of the regular season.
Despite a hot start, the Steelers regular season win total is juiced to the under 7.5 at -150 at FanDuel.
Those numbers imply Pittsburgh is expected to go 5-9 or worse the rest of the way.
With two of their next five games against the Browns, a pair of head-to-head wins would ensure the Steelers are above .500 heading into a Week 8 bye, with a 3-0 record versus AFC North opponents.
Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point favourite for TNF at FanDuel.
What is the most important key to victory tonight?
As I highlighted off the top, Rodgers was 0-for-9 on passes that travelled 20 or more air yards downfield through the first two weeks of the season.
Then in Week 3 against the Bengals, Rodgers hit deep touchdown passes to Roman Wilson and Ben Skowronek in the first quarter alone.
However, those were Rodgers’ only two 20+ air yard completions in the game.
He finished 2-for-6 for 61 yards and two touchdowns on 20+ air yard throws, per Fantasy Points Data 2.0.
Rodgers is now 2-for-15 on 20+ air yard throws.
That means he has the third-most deep pass attempts (15) but the second-fewest deep pass completions (2) among QBs with a minimum six attempts over three starts.
DK Metcalf leads the Steelers with seven deep targets but has three drops and zero receptions on those throws!
Roman Wilson has four deep targets and has two catches that have gone 20+ yards.
Cleveland’s defence has faced the highest rate of deep pass attempts in the NFL at 17.1 per cent.
The league average is 10.2 per cent.
The Browns defence has also faced the highest ADOT (10.75) and third-most air yards (333.5) in the NFL facing Trevor Lawrence, Baker Mayfield, and Bryce Young.
While the explosives haven’t been consistent, Rodgers did hit a couple against the Bengals, and there’s no reason to think he won’t fire away again tonight in an NFL primetime game in Cleveland.
Meanwhile, I also expect Rodgers to lean heavily on his tight ends once again tonight.
In Week 3, Rodgers targeted his tight ends on 28.1 per cent of his pass attempts, which was up from a 19.7 per cent target rate the first two weeks.
Darnell Washington and Pat Freiermuth combined to register five catches and 97 yards on eight targets.
Part of that approach was facing a Bengals defence that has historically struggled to defend the position, but Rodgers did talk about getting Freiermuth move involved prior to Week 3, and it’s a weak spot for Cleveland.
The Browns defence has allowed the seventh-most tight end receptions per game (6.3) and ninth-most tight end receiving yards per game (66.0), on the sixth-most tight end targets per game (8.7) through three weeks.
In last week’s win over the Carolina Panthers, Darren Waller, Tommy Tremble, and Mitchell Evans combined to register 11 receptions for 128 yards on 15 targets.
We already know that Rodgers wants to get his tight ends involved again so it won’t be a surprise when he attacks a major weak spot for the Browns.
In terms of a FanDuel Best Bet tonight, I have a couple of options to consider.
First, I’ll lock in Wilson over 18.5 receiving yards.
Yes, I’m slightly concerned that Wilson was only targeted once after a drop that led to an interception against the Bengals last week, but he’s too important to this offence for Rodgers to ignore.
Wilson leads the Steelers with 114 receiving yards on 11 receptions and ranks second on the team in targets (19) behind only Metcalf (19).
Seven of Wilson’s 11 receptions this season have gone for a touchdown or a first down, and he’s registered a catch for 20 or more yards in two of his first three games.
I’ll lock in Wilson over 18.5 receiving yards as a best bet.
Next up, I’ll take Freiermuth over 26.5 receiving yards.
Freiermuth has cleared 30+ receiving yards in three straight games to begin the season and is in line for another big game against a Cleveland defence that has struggled against opposing tight ends.
With a sense of urgency in a division game in primetime, I’m banking on some vintage Rodgers against the Browns.
Hopefully, we can go 2-0 with the best bets as the Steelers look to take another important step towards contending for a playoff spot in Rodgers final season.
Have a great day, everyone!
