Week 10 of the NFL Season has arrived, and we are back with another set of Best Bets from our TSN Betting team.
Let’s get to the action. Here are our team’s best bets.
Domenic Padula; Jaylen Warren over 61.5 rushing yards
I hate to do this but Jaylen Warren might be the best kept secret in the NFL. I mean that in the sense that he’s accounted for a greater percentage of his team’s scrimmage yards than any player in the league other than Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, yet he doesn’t get nearly the same respect as either of those superstar running backs. Warren leads all NFL running backs with 6.9 yards per touch this season. He’s cleared 93 or more rushing yards in five of his last six games, including 127 rushing yards in the first meeting versus Cincinnati. However, his rushing yards prop is just 61.5. The Bengals have allowed a running back to clear 70 or more rushing in five of their last six games. I expect that trend to continue with Warren going over 61.5 rushing yards as my FanDuel Best Bet for Sunday Night Football.
Connor Ford: Tank Dell Over 2.5 Receptions
It looks like Tank Dell is working his way back up the pecking order in the Texans offence and it might not be long until he’s one of CJ Stroud’s favourite targets again. Dell caught his lone target for 43 yards in his season debut and followed it up with four catches for 105 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers last week. If you look at the underlying numbers, Dell had the potential for an even bigger week.
Despite playing just 47 percent of the snaps in Week 9, Dell led the team with 9 targets, 120 air yards and a 36.0 TPRR%. That’s encouraging usage in just his second game back from his devastating leg injury. Stroud pushed for Houston to draft Dell and he seems locked in on getting his wide receiver the ball again. Dell should continue to see his snap share grow as he becomes more comfortable on the field. Additionally, Marvin Harrison Jr. is out this week, opening a path for even more targets. I’ll bet on Dell’s volume to continue this week – and he’ll go over 2.5 receptions against the Browns.
Drew Morrison: Josh Downs Over 21.5 Receiving Yards
It might have gone a little under the radar after the Kirk Cousins deal, but Josh Downs has the potential to be the deadline’s most impactful acquisition. After two practices, Patrick Mahomes raved about his new receiver’s experience and professionalism. Mahomes unintentionally made it obvious that the Chies receiver room was lacking the commitment that instantly came with the former Colt. Downs was equally enthusiastic about his arrival in KC. He’s been a consistent pro despite having the following list of quarterbacks in his four NFL seasons: Daniel Jones, 44-year old Philip Rivers off the couch, Riley Leonard briefly, Joe Flacco at 40, Anthony Richardson, and Gardiner Minshew. Downs has done all he can with what he’s been given. It’s time for the Chiefs to take his career to new heights. I believe Downs’ debut will have a bigger splash than the deal to acquire him just a few days ago.
Luke Bellus: CJ Daniels Over 1.5 receptions
I’m still thankful for TSN’s Connor Ford for making me sit through 30 rounds of a dynasty draft this summer.
While I initially turned down his offer to join the league I ended up seeing it as a good opportunity to run a team with my friend Alex who I’ve known since high school.
Alex and I go way back, so I knew I could trust him when it came to digging deep and finding sleepers.
Little did I know that Alex would be on vacation for the ladder part of our slow draft (that only took five weeks), leaving me to find anyone with any sort of value as the rounds climbed into the 20s.
And then I met him.
CJ Daniels.
It didn’t take much convincing, I took a screenshot on his Sleeper profile and sent it to Alex “this guy seems to have had a good pre season.”
Alex wrote me back, hours later, “Devante Adams was raving about him on the trap draw.”
Boom, say no more.
With the third pick in the 23rd round we selected CJ Daniels, rookie out of Miami.
Daniels, 23, doesn’t have a catch and has only played six snaps this season, but with the Rams dealing with injuries in the wide receiver room it appears time for CJ to make an impact.
I’ve laddered Mr. Daniels up to four catches and 50 yards, but for the sake of a best bet I just need him to haul in two passes.