Week 4 of the NFL Season has arrived, and we are back with another week of Best Bets from our TSN Betting team.
The team went 3-1 last week, so let’s see if we can sweep the board this time around.
If you’re looking for more plays, check out Domenic Padula’s Week 4 Playbook for all of TSN’s lead sports betting analysts’ plays for the day.
Let’s get to the action, here are our team’s best bets.
Domenic Padula: Matthew Golden 38 or more receiving yards
If you read my Morning Coffee column, you know I jumped on this number as soon as it hit the market. Golden finally delivered against the Browns in Week 3, when he went the over hit on his receptions, receiving yards, and longest reception props. The intriguing part is that he could have done better if he didn’t go out of bounds on a 32-yard reception late in the game. Now he gets to face the worst pass defence in the NFL, and while I’m a little concerned Green Bay might not need their rookie first-round pick to put up massive numbers to secure the win, this match-up is too tempting for me to put any other bet in this YourWay Parlay. I’ll stick with Golden 38 or more receiving yards as my FanDuel Best Bet for NFL Sunday Week 4.
Connor Ford: TreVeyon Henderson to Record 3 or More Receptions
It’s finally time. Rhamondre Stevenson entered this season as the lead running back for the Patriots, but after two costly fumbles against the Steelers in Week 3, the door has now opened for rookie TreVeyon Henderson to take on an expanded role against the Panthers this week.
Stevenson and Antonio Gibson combined for three fumbles in Week 3. In the three drives following those fumbles, Henderson played 84 per cent of the snaps and ran 71 per cent of the routes at running back. Ball security has been a consistent issue for Stevenson, so it wouldn’t surprise me if this trend continues.
Despite playing just 38 per cent of the snaps through three weeks, Henderson has already been quite productive in the Patriots passing game. That’s partly due to New England ranking third in PROE this season. Henderson has been targeted on 23 per cent of his routes, hauling in 11 receptions for 73 yards. With a projected increase in snaps, catching three balls against a porous Panthers defence should be no problem on Sunday.
Drew Morrison: Michael Pittman Jr. Over 53.5 Receiving Yards
From 2021 through 2023, Michael Pittman Jr. averaged over 1,000 yards and just under 100 catches per season. He did that for three years in a row with a different quarterback each year. Nothing against Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan at the end of his career or Gardner Minshew, but they’re no Indiana Jones! The Colts have a quarterback. Pittman has proved that when he’s working with one that’s relatively competent, he has the potential to be a Pro Bowler. Pittman had 73 or more receiving yards three times in 16 games last season. He’s eclipsed that number twice this year already and is once again leading the Colts in catches and receiving yards entering week 4 against the Rams.
L.A.’s front seven is as intimidating as any in the league, but if there’s a weakness on defence, it’s in their secondary. The Rams have allowed at least 56 yards to four different receivers over the last two weeks. AJ Brown and Devonta Smith combined for 169 yards against them last Sunday. The game script should dictate that the Colts will have to throw the ball as a +3.5 underdog on the road.
This is also a homecoming for Pittman. Not only did he grow up 20 minutes from SOFI Stadium he also starred for USC and will likely have a whole section of supporters. Davis Sanchez once told me that Southern California kids, especially former Trojans, love returning to the town where stars shine the brightest. Action.
Luke Bellus: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5
I get Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid at home as underdogs, do I need to say anything else?
This is just the second time in Mahomes’ career he’ll be an underdog at Arrowhead, and this Sunday, I believe he’ll move to 1-1 against the spread in these games after failing to cover as a home dog against the Buffalo Bills in 2022.
It’s been a sluggish start to 2025 for the Chiefs, but a trip to Brazil in Week 1 and a date with the defending Super Bowl champions in Week 2 did them no favours.
Now they get a Baltimore Ravens team off a short week and a primetime beatdown. Usually, after watching a team like Baltimore lose in primetime, I’d be inclined to buy them the next week.
But with a few key players still out for the Ravens on defence, I’m drawn to Mahomes and Reid at home getting a few points.
I also think this game just means more to the Chiefs than it does to Baltimore.
Both teams enter Week 4 at 1-2.However, Baltimore has -1100 odds on FanDuel to make the playoffs, while Kansas City is just -220.
The Ravens’ path to the playoffs is relatively straightforward, with the AFC North currently not presenting much of a challenge, as Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati are all longshots to win the division.
But the Chiefs are already chasing the 3-0 Los Angeles Chargers and can’t afford to give up much more ground.
Monday night, Detroit was the more desperate team and pulled off the upset against Baltimore. Maybe I’m late to the party, but I think the Chiefs do the same thing this week. I’ll take the Chiefs +2.5 as my best bet.
