The NFL season kicks off Wednesday night, which means we only have one day left to get some futures in on FanDuel before we get going.
And after spending a good portion of the summer trying to figure out what’s going to happen this feels like a good space to just let out some thoughts.
The most fascinating Week 1 game of my life (29 years) goes Thursday night with the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers playing upside down in Australia.
The game will kick off at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT / 11 a.m. ACT and I still can’t wrap my head around the 49ers leaving for the game as early as they did. On the other side, the Rams flying out a barely two days in advance also seems like a huge risk.
MLB used to go to Japan for a regular-season series to open the calendar, they did it during Spring Training to allow both teams to travel there and back and not have to worry about adjusting their body clocks back while being in the regular season. And that’s baseball, where they play 162 games. The 49ers are spending a week in Australia to play an 11 a.m. local kick only to have to fly back to the West Coast and play the Dolphins in Week 2.
I think the Rams are about to get off the plane and embarrass a 49ers team that can’t seem to get the clock right on their own phones.
FanDuel doesn’t have any lines up for Week 2 yet, but if they did, just know I’d already be fading these teams going to Australia in Week 2.
As for the rest of the article, I believe everything I am saying and think all 12 of these things could happen. They won’t. But they could.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 11.5 regular season rushing touchdowns -166
The 24-year-old Detroit Lions star has 39 rushing touchdowns in 49 games with the Lions, and this season could be in store for his highest workload yet as David Montgomery, and his 33 rushing TDs since 2023, is now with the Houston Texans.
Pittsburgh Steelers Under 8.5 Wins -140
It’s been 23 seasons since the Pittsburgh Steelers had a losing season, something that never happened under former head coach Mike Tomlin’s watch. Now, Mike McCarthy will try to replicate the success he had in 2010 when he and Aaron Rodgers led the Green Bay Packers to a Super Bowl. I think it’s far more likely now, 16 years later, that the results this season mirror McCarthy’s exit from Green Bay, which saw this duo lose 16 of their final 28 games.
Patrick Mahomes Comeback Player of the Year +150
Coming off a torn ACL in December, if the Chiefs QB jumps into action this season and looks like his normal self this award could have his name on it before Halloween. Mahomes wouldn’t be the first big-name quarterback to win the award as Joe Burrow has won it twice, Andrew Luck (2018) did it and so did Peyton Manning (2012) and Tom Brady (2009). There’s one other quarterback I have my eye on in this market, but I’ll have to get to him later.
Do you believe in positive and negative regression? +371
The Denver Broncos won an NFL-best 11 games that were decided by one-score on way to a 14-3 season last year, and the San Francisco 49ers were the only team in the NFL to not lose more than one one-score game. On the flip side, the Kansas City Chiefs lost the most one-score games in the league, going 1-9, with the New York Giants as the only other team to win fewer than two one-score games last year.
The method of looking at one-score games solely as an indicator of negative/positive regression can be a little silly but the premise is that if a team wins a lot of coin flips one year that doesn’t necessarily make them more likely to win those same coin flips the next year. Football is a game of small samples, and when you have outliers in individual seasons we can see teams come crashing back to earth or sore to heights we didn’t see thanks to one or two close plays.
| Team | O/U | Total Wins |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | Under | 10.5 |
| San Fransisco 49ers | Under | 10.5 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | Over | 8.5 |
| New York Giants | Over | 5.5 |
A Giant leap from Worst to First
I wrote about a few trends over the last 10 years we’ve seen in teams going worst to first in their division last week. The-Jaxson Dart and John Harbaugh led Giants check a lot of boxes. It’s possible this is one year too soon, but with the amount of talent they have on both sides of the ball, and some question marks surrounding the Eagles and Cowboys entering the year this might be the team to go worst to first in 2026.
Jahmyr Gibbs Offensive Player of the Year +650
See Above.
Joe Alt Protector of the Year +950
An award dedicated to the big boys! And I’m not talking Joey M.
Last year Joe Thuney won the first ever Protector of the Year award and if Joe Alt is as good as everyone says he is this award will be his one day too.
I’m never going to sit here and pretend to know what makes Joe Alt the type of player that has drawn comparisons to Lane Johnson, a future no doubt hall of famer.
But I do know that if Alt is going to end up in Canton at the end of his career he’ll have won this at least once, so I’ll jump at the +950 price tag and hope he can stay healthy after playing in six games last year.
He made the Pro Bowl (R.I.P.) last year despite playing six games… if he plays all 17 this season he might win MVP.
Lamar Jackson MVP +1100
I’ve noticed a pattern here where every few years people seem to take Lamar Jackson a tad for granted and Jackson has incredible ways of reminding us of who he is. Jackson was bad in 2025, but he was also very banged up. With a new voice in command for the Ravens my expectation is they’re one of the top teams in the league again in 2026. And if the Ravens are in contention for the No. 1 seed (+490) then Lamar’s MVP chances shouldn’t be too far behind. Meanwhile Josh Allen has the same odds to win MVP as the Bills to do be the top seed (+500).
Underdogs dominate on Christmas, again +1175
Underdogs went 3-0 against the spread last Christmas, which was highlighted by the Minnesota Vikings winning outright as 7.5-point underdogs. This season the Houston Texans have opened as +2.5 underdogs on Christmas eve against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks are all currently +1.5 underdogs the next day.
Daniel Jones Comeback Player of The Year +1600
We are firmly in swing and miss territory here as there’s a chance Jones struggles this season coming off a torn Achilles in what projects to be a very middling season for the Indianapolis Colts. But… what if he’s good? Jones’ 19 touchdown passes through 13 games last season was the most he’s thrown since he was a rookie in 2019. And Colts head coach Shane Steichen has a track record of providing a floor for an offence that can also flash ceiling in the right hands.
Sam Darnold MVP +3000
Doubling up on a market again to bet Sam Darnold 30-1 to win MVP is really funny, I know. But the Rams have a brutal schedule this year and open with international travel Week 1 and that only seems like a good thing for Darnold and the defending champs. If the Seahawks run it back this year and claim the top seed in the NFC again, it’s possible we’re all looking at Darnold in this MVP conversation and look to give him his standalone moment. Darnold’s stock has been on the rise these past few seasons after finishing third in COPY (and 10th in MVP) voting two seasons ago and we all saw the ring he won last year. Still, after leading the league in turnovers last year, Darnold has another level he can climb to.
What happens when a Raven meets a Lion? +5700
The Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions have been knocking at the door of a Super Bowl appearance for a few years and I think this is the year they both could get there. The regular season schedule projects to be favorable to both with the Lions benefitting from a fourth-place schedule and the Ravens expected as favourites in 14 games this season with an average line of -3.9. I like throwing a few darts at Super Bowl matchups before the season gets started and if these two teams reach the postseason I’ll like the 57-1 price in January and hopefully even more in February.
