Connor Hellebuyck is back in Manitoba.
He just won’t get the start for the New Jersey Devils when they visit the Winnipeg Jets tonight.
Jake Allen will get the nod for New Jersey in a move that Devils management has suggested will protect their expected win probability.
The Devils have told us that starting Hellebuyck tonight in Winnipeg would “potentially give us a reduction in our expected win probability”.
That may be true, just not based on their actual odds to win the game at FanDuel.
New Jersey is currently a -152 moneyline favourite.
Per the FanDuel traders, the Devils would be a -165 moneyline favourite if Hellebuyck was scheduled to start.
That difference represents a small bump in terms of implied win probability, from a 60.3 per cent chance to win with Allen to a 62.3 per cent chance with Hellebuyck.
It certainly isn’t a reduction.
Then again, the Devils have a home-and-home against the division rival Washington Capitals on deck this week.
New Jersey has won five in a row to improve to 13-5-0.
The Devils are four points back of the Carolina Hurricanes for first place in the Metro Division with a game in hand.
Meanwhile, the Jets have followed up a nine-game slide with a three-game win streak and can get back to .500 with a win over New Jersey on home ice.
Plus, tonight is “90’s Night” at the Canada Life Centre.
Winnipeg, which has already pulled off upset wins over the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning over the last seven days, is quickly becoming familiar with the underdog label.
The Jets are +128 to pull off another upset win tonight.
The tension surrounding Hellebuyck’s return should lead to an inspired performance, even if the three-time Vezina Trophy winner is watching from the bench.
Regardless of tonight’s result, the Hellebuyck trade was the best possible scenario for Winnipeg in the long term.
As intriguing as the coverage surrounding the Hellebuyck situation continues to be, I’ve remained firm on the fact that both teams are better off because of the trade.
With trade requests becoming more common in the NHL, the response from the teams must change as well.
Let’s break it down with a closer look at the numbers in this Morning Coffee or Tuesday November 10th, 2026.
Hellebuyck’s Return, Expected Win Probability, and Navigating NHL Trade Requests
Trade requests have become more common in the NHL.
The unfortunate reality for NHL clubs is that in most situations the best option is to secure the best possible return available for the asset when a request is made.
That certainly appeared to be the case for Winnipeg.
Hellebuyck is 5-0-0 with a 1.96 goals against average and a .913 save percentage for the Devils.
Jets fans can point to those numbers and pretend there was a scenario where Hellebuyck returned to Winnipeg and performed at an elite level.
The harsh but simple reality is that he no longer wanted to play there and once he made that decision there was nothing the Jets could do but find the best possible deal.
Winnipeg GM and Vice President of Hockey Operations Kevin Chevaldayoff found a package that included a pair of first round picks in Dawson Mercer and Alexander Command, along with Nick Bjugstad, Nico Daws, a 2029 second round pick and a 2027 seventh round pick.
The Jets were +4000 to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel before the Hellebuyck trade request.
16 NHL teams had shorter odds than Winnipeg.
The Jets weren’t considered a Stanley Cup contender with Hellebuyck, and they aren’t considered one without him, but at least now they can focus on what it takes to get to that level with the players that want to be there.
The same can be said for the Ottawa Senators.
The Senators traded former captain Brady Tkachuk and his $8.21 million AAV to the Florida Panthers in exchange for three first round picks and a second-round pick.
Ottawa flipped a first-round pick to the San Jose Sharks in a trade for William Eklund, Kasper Halttunen, and Brandon Svoboda.
Eklund ended up on the injured reserve with a torn ankle tendon and No. 1 goaltender Linus Ullmark has been out since October 21st with a lower-body strain.
However, the Senators have won three of their last four to improve to 11-6-1 and currently sit in a Wild Card spot.
Ullmark, who is a 7-1-0 with a 1.33 goals against average and a .945 save percentage, has been activated from IR.
Ottawa is currently -200 to make the playoffs at FanDuel – a 66.7 per cent implied chance.
The Senators weren’t considered a top Stanley Cup contender with Tkachuk on their roster, and they might not be considered one this morning.
However, Ottawa made the deal that gave them the best possible return for a player they understood was not interested in staying and ultimately, they are better off long term because of it.
https://x.com/OverDrive1050/status/2108670940880011377
Then there’s the Dylan Larkin situation in Detroit.
The former Red Wings captain requested a trade at the conclusion of the 2025-26 NHL season that became public over the summer.
The biggest problem was that the request featured a short list of teams that made it more difficult for Detroit to secure a return they felt justified making a move.
https://x.com/TSN_Sports/status/2117774290234024271
Unfortunately, we’re now more than a month into the 2026-27 NHL season, Larkin is no longer willing to play for the Red Wings, and interim GM Shawn Horcoff has said the team is prepared to wait as long as necessary for a suitable return.
Does Larkin become more valuable or less valuable as a trade asset the longer he is sidelined?
Detroit has lost three in a row to fall to 7-8-3.
The Red Wings are +800 to make the playoffs in the loaded Atlantic – an 11.1 per cent implied chance.
I’m not a TSN Hockey Insider and I have no clue what the teams on the short list that Larkin is willing to play for are offering, but it’s hard to imagine Detroit gets more for their former captain in the future than they can now.
I can tell you that I’m glad I parlayed the Red Wings, Philadelphia Flyers, and Chicago Blackhawks to miss the playoffs before the season started.
The public story is the drama, the trade scenarios, and ultimately the fallout from the deal that gets made.
Sure, Tkachuk’s return to Ottawa was a spectacle, and it would have been fun for fans to see Hellebuyck face his former team in his return to Winnipeg tonight.
The reality is that trade requests in the NHL are becoming more common, and once a star player gets to that point there is little that GMs can do other than secure the best possible return for the asset.
The Hellebucyk trade followed that script.
The Devils improved their roster and potential to contend in the Eastern Conference this season.
The Jets added the assets and the clarity they needed to move forward and turn the page on the Hellebuyck era.
Both teams are better off today because of it, even if it’s fun to debate whether New Jersey’s expected win probability is better or worse with Allen in net tonight.
Everything else is just the noise that comes with moving on.
Have a great day, everyone!