Josh Allen is the NFL’s most valuable player to his team.
Of course, being the MVP and winning the NFL regular season MVP award can be two different things.
Objectively, I can use the information available to me to evaluate the players that create the most value for their teams based on individual skill sets, unique traits, as well as their ability to maximize the potential of the pieces around them to give their team the best chance to win.
There’s no guarantee the most valuable player to his team will have the best counting stats, team record, advanced efficiency metrics, or perfect media narrative.
If you’ve followed the NFL closely enough and for long enough, then you probably understand this concept.
The problem is there can only be one annual NFL regular season MVP, which makes it that much more intriguing to debate the merits of the league’s best players.
It also makes it that much easier to dismiss elite QB play, the same way fans were willing to write off Drake Maye early on this season, even though he literally did things that no QB in NFL history has ever done before in 2025.
Of course, this year the early NFL MVP debate has pitted Josh Allen versus Brock Purdy as the obvious top choices.
Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence are the only other players with shorter than +1000 odds to win the award.
Which QB has the best case as the league’s true MVP?
It depends on which MVP we are referencing here.
Let’s break down the numbers in this Morning Coffee column for Wednesday October 14th, 2026.
Josh Allen Is A Deserved NFL Regular Season MVP Favourite Through Five Weeks
Josh Allen is my pick to win NFL regular season MVP.
FanDuel made him the obvious favourite to win the award again at +550 entering Week 1.
He’s down to +250 as the clear frontrunner this morning.
At the same time, Purdy is a close second choice to win MVP at +300 odds at FanDuel this morning.
Several respected voices have planted their flag on Purdy as the best bet to win MVP and the cases that I’ve heard are all very similar.
The San Francisco 49ers are 5-0 with division wins over the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams.
Purdy leads the NFL in EPA (64.8) and QBR (85.5).
Purdy has executed the 49ers offence at an elite level, and there’s no doubt he deserves to be in the MVP conversation, regardless of whether we are considering counting stats or his importance to his team.
As far as a straight comparison, I’ll take Allen for MVP.
Allen has averaged slightly more passing yards (249.8 to 239.2), more rushing yards (47.8 to 25.6), and slightly more total TDs (3.0 to 2.8) than Purdy this season.
Allen also has a better adjusted completion percentage, which accounts for drops, spikes, and throwaways.
Additionally, Allen has targeted his first read on only 55.8 per cent of throws, compared to Purdy at 63.4 per cent.
Allen has also posted a slightly higher accurate throw rate (65.2 versus 64.1) than Purdy with a higher average depth of target (9.36 versus 7.75) this season.
We can also look at the supporting cast for both QBs.
Fantasy Points Data uses an average separation score metric to evaluate the ability of skill players to get open.
The average separation score for NFL wide receivers this season is 0.049 and the average route win rate is 12.3%.
For perspective, Zay Flowers leads the league with a 0.286 average separation score and ranks second among wide receivers with 80 or more routes run with a 22.1 per cent win rate.
Mike Evans leads all qualified wide receivers with a 23.4 per cent win rate and ranks third in A.S.S. (0.191) behind Flowers and Josh Downs (0.199) of the Indianapolis Colts.
Robinson ranked second on the 49ers in both categories but was injured in Week 2.
Brock Bowers and Mark Andrews are the only tight ends with a better A.S.S. than George Kittle among tight ends that have run at least 100 routes this season.
Christian McCaffrey ranks sixth among NFL running backs with 137 receiving yards on 19 receptions.
Meanwhile, Joshua Palmer leads Buffalo with a 0.121 A.S.S. and a 15.5 per cent win rate on 58 routes.
D.J. Moore is the only other Bills wide receiver with an above average route win rate.
Moore and Palmer were both sidelined with injuries in Buffalo’s Week 5 win over the Los Angeles Rams.
Keon Coleman has also been banged up but his 97 routes run ranks second on the Bills this season.
Coleman has a below average A.S.S. and route win rate.
Khalil Shakir leads Buffalo with 106 routes run.
His 9.4% route win rate would rank fifth among 49ers wide receivers this season.
Meanwhile, tight end Dalton Kincaid has been a bright spot in terms of his ability to separate above league average, especially in comparison to Dawson Knox.
However, Kincaid’s production has faded after a strong start, raising questions about what has led to the decline in his production since Week 2.
Knox, who had one catch for six yards on three targets in Monday night’s win over LA, hasn’t been able to separate at a league average rate this season.
With Moore and Palmer sidelined against the Rams, I correctly identified running back Ty Johnson as the player most likely to fill the void for the Bills.
Johnson registered four catches for 72 yards in the win.
Kincaid, Knox, Coleman, and rookie Skyler Bell combined for three catches and 20 yards on nine targets.
Believe it or not, Allen ran for more yards than his wide receivers and tight ends registered in the win.
Allen ran for 121 yards and a touchdown while his receivers and tight ends combined for 100 yards, with more than half of that coming on a 57-yard catch-and-run by Shakir in overtime.
The fact that the Bills gave up 34 points and got so little production from their wide receivers and tight ends but still managed to pull off the upset win on the road is completely absurd.
It’s also the type of performance that I’m not convinced any other quarterback in the NFL can replicate right now.
https://x.com/danfetes/status/2109981634758115403
Keep in mind that the Buffalo defence has given up more yards (1943) than any other team in NFL besides the Detroit Lions (2022) and the Dallas Cowboys (1977)
The Bills have also allowed the fifth-most points (141) behind the Lions (148), Washington Commanders (149), New Orleans Saints (151), and Arizona Cardinals (162).
The 49ers are third in the NFL in points per game allowed (18.6) and sixth in yards per game allowed (297.2).
San Francisco has secured tough wins over LA and Seattle, but has also played the Cardinals, Miami Dolphins, and the Denver Broncos.
Buffalo has played the Houston Texans, Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots, and the Rams.
Yes, the Chargers are the NFL’s biggest disappointment, but they are still a better team than the Dolphins.
The 49ers have won games with elite efficiency on both sides of the football this season.
The Bills have won games with unparalleled QB play.
While we can circle the counting stats and analytics that make the strongest case for both MVP candidates, it’s Allen’s ability to do so much with so little that stands out in terms of the most valuable player to his team.
Brock Purdy deserves his flowers for executing the Kyle Shanahan offence nearly flawlessly through five weeks.
Josh Allen hasn’t been perfect, but he’s also operating the Josh Allen offence in a way that only he can.
Allen remains my pick for NFL regular season MVP, with Purdy right behind him as the second choice.
Both QBs still have a lot of football left to play this year.
Hopefully, they can both stay healthy and continue to produce at an MVP level the rest of the way.
Have a great day, everyone!