All 32 NFL teams were granted a fresh start in September and an optimistic narrative on their potential upside.
Fast-forward five weeks later, the sample size is no longer small enough to protect the franchises that needed it.
The Los Angeles Chargers are the biggest disappointment in the NFL, and it isn’t particularly close.
A top five choice to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel entering Week 1, the Chargers have stunned even the most pessimistic fan with an 0-5 start.
Expectations weren’t anywhere close to as high for the Tennessee Titans or Miami Dolphins, which have already all but officially been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Houston Texans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers both got their first wins of the season in Week 5, but it could very well be too little too late for both franchises.
On the flip side, the San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings, and Kansas City Chiefs remain undefeated.
The Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars are right behind them after clinching a pair of thrilling wins on Sunday to improve to 4-1.
Meanwhile, the final stop for Week 5 in the NFL features two teams with great expectations this season.
The Los Angeles Rams entered Week 1 as the undisputed offseason winner and the Super Bowl favourite.
The Buffalo Bills were the favourite to win the AFC title and the second choice to win it all at FanDuel.
Tonight, the Bills visit the Rams in an intriguing measuring stick game for both franchises.
While it isn’t a must-win for either team, every game is important, and Monday Night Football could have major implications as a potential crossroad for both sides.
Let’s set the stage and lock in a FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football in this special holiday-edition Morning Coffee column for Monday October 12th, 2026.
Happy Thanksgiving to all of you and your families!
Margin For Error Shrinks For Bills, Rams Entering Monday Night Football
Nobody is willing to write off the Rams as the Super Bowl favourite following a .500 start to the season.
LA entered Week 1 at +500 to win the Super Bowl.
Following a 2-2 start, the Rams are +600 to win it all.
For LA, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett has been sidelined since Week 1 with an injury, Aaron Donald returns tonight after sitting out Week 4 due to back soreness, while star wide receiver Puka Nacua has been limited to two games.
Regardless, if it wasn’t for a fourth-quarter collapse in a 30-26 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 3, the Rams would be 3-1 despite some of their best players missing time early on this season.
The consensus is that if they are healthy come playoff time, LA will be the team to beat in the NFC.
Brock Purdy and company might have something to say about that, and a 5-0 start that includes a 3-0 record inside the division has San Francisco on pace to earn the NFC’s No. 1 seed, a first-round bye, and home field advantage for the playoffs.
The NFC West features the 49ers at 5-0, the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks at 3-2, and the Rams looking to improve to 3-2 with a win tonight.
Sure, nobody is going to dismiss LA if they fall short of a division title, but a first-round playoff bye could really boost their chances if they can find a way to put together a win streak and track down San Francisco in the division.
Meanwhile, the Bills have gone from +1000 to +850 to win the Super Bowl at 3-1, although they are now the third choice behind LA and the Baltimore Ravens (+800).
Buffalo looked unstoppable through the first three weeks with wins over the Texans, Detroit Lions, and Chargers.
However, a couple of key injuries and a tough loss to the AFC East rival New England Patriots have flipped their outlook entering Monday Night Football.
With a win tonight, the Bills will remain one game clear of the Patriots for first place in the division.
A loss would leave Buffalo tied with New England at 3-2, with the Patriots holding the head-to-head tiebreaker.
It’s hard to imagine Josh Allen playing any better than he did through his first three games of the season.
However, a pair of turnovers against New England has hurt Allen’s stock, and he’s no longer the MVP favourite.
Purdy’s remarkable start has him at +250 as the new favourite to win NFL regular season MVP at FanDuel.
Allen is a close second choice at +350.
Patrick Mahomes (+600) and Trevor Lawrence (+900) round out the four QBs with shorter than +1200 odds to win NFL regular season MVP at FanDuel this morning.
Allen can add to his record for the most rushing touchdowns through five games by any QB in NFL history on Monday Night Football.
Allen leads the NFL with 13 offensive touchdowns, throwing six and running for seven in four games.
However, turnovers have become a problem for Allen of late, with four giveaways compared to just one TD pass in his previous two starts.
With Nacua, Davante Adams, and Kyren Williams, all expected to be in the lineup for the Rams tonight, Allen will need to be nearly perfect for Buffalo to keep up.
Nacua had nine receptions for 125 yards in LA’s win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4.
Tyler Higbee stepped up with five catches for 67 yards.
Meanwhile, Williams led the Rams with 80 rushing yards and another 10 receptions for 67 yards through the air.
In case you missed it, I like Williams over 19.5 receiving yards as my FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football.
Williams has exploded for an average of 68.5 receiving yards on 8.0 receptions over his last two games.
The Bills defence has allowed an average of 31.8 running back receiving yards per game.
My lone concern is that Matthew Stafford should be able to pick his poison against a Buffalo defence that has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game in the NFL.
The Bills are giving up 274.0 passing yards per game and 116.0 rushing yards per game, which are both below the league averages.
The last time these teams met in 2024, they combined for 86 points and put up over 900 total yards of offence.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if a similar game script played out tonight with both teams scoring a ton.
The key will be avoiding turnovers on offence and making the one or two critical plays in the fourth quarter that will ultimately decide the game.
For the Rams, I’m counting on Williams delivering again.
For the Bills, I also think we see their running backs involved in the passing game once again tonight.
In two games this season, Ty Johnson has registered six catches for 59 receiving yards, with the bulk of it coming in a win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 3.
He could have had an even bigger game last week if Allen didn’t miss him in stride on the play below.
There’s no doubt Allen saw that on tape after the loss.
D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir, and Keon Coleman are the only Bills with more targets over that two-game span than Johnson with six.
Moore didn’t practice until a limited run on Saturday and is questionable to play with a shoulder injury.
Josh Palmer has already been ruled out with a shoulder injury, while Coleman practiced in full despite being hit with an ankle injury designation.
The Rams have allowed an average of 4.8 receptions for 25.8 receiving yards to opposing running backs.
Meanwhile, no NFL team has given up fewer receiving yards to opposing wide receivers and tight ends.
With injuries adding up for Buffalo on both sides of the football, I expect Johnson to be heavily involved tonight.
I’ll add Johnson over 11.5 receiving yards to my card.
Hopefully, we can end Week 5 with a sweep tonight.
Once again, Happy Thanksgiving everyone!