Morning Coffee: 49ers remain in control of path to NFC’s number one seed 

The NFL playoff picture is much clearer after Week 16.

The Indianapolis Colts aren’t officially eliminated, but their playoff chances bottomed out to two percent following a loss to the San Francisco 49ers last night.

Regardless of the result, we’ll never forget another epic primetime performance by the 44-year-old Philip Rivers.

With a Colts loss, the Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers, and the Jacksonville Jaguars punched their playoff tickets.

Meanwhile, San Francisco’s chances of landing the No. 1 seed improved from 21 per cent to 31 per cent with the victory, per ESPN Analytics.

The 49ers to be the NFC’s No. 1 seed is +200 at FanDuel.

San Francisco to win the NFC Championship was cut from +900 to +650; to win the NFC West from +350 to +198.

The Niners to win the Super Bowl was slashed from +1900 to +1300 overnight.

San Francisco can clinch a first-round bye and home field advantage for the playoffs by winning out against the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks.

While the playoff field is nearly set, there’s still a lot left to be decided over the final two weeks of the season.

Let’s try to find some value in FanDuel’s NFL futures markets in this latest edition of Morning Coffee for Monday December 23^rd, 2025.

Is There Still Value Playing Stafford To Win MVP?

Picture this: I’m grinding out my final preparations for Monday Night Football when I get a phone call.

It’s our NFL analyst Davis Sanchez on the line.

“Why aren’t we all-in on Matthew Stafford MVP?”

While I was late to the party playing him at +1000, Chezzy was making the point that even at -195 odds, it made sense to double down on Stafford MVP.

He isn’t wrong.

Stafford has thrown eight more touchdown passes (40) than any quarterback in the NFL.

He leads the league in passing yards (4179), TD-to-INT ratio (40-5), and passer rating (112.1).

Beyond the box score, the advanced analytics jump off the page.

Stafford owns the best ratio of highlight-reel throws versus turnover-worthy throws in the NFL.

The Rams lead the league with 30.5 points and 396.7 total yards of offence per game.

Simply put, nobody has played the quarterback position better than Stafford, who is a deserved MVP favourite.

At -195, FanDuel’s odds suggest there is a 66.1 per cent implied probability that Stafford will win MVP.

I’d put that number somewhere closer to 75 per cent.

That would mean Stafford to win NFL regular season MVP would be priced closer to -300 than -195.

The current price at FanDuel is the best number you’ll find for Stafford to win MVP this morning.

The only other player at shorter than +2500 odds to win MVP is New England Patriots QB Drake Maye at +170.

Maye leads the NFL in Total QBR (73.4) and completion percentage (70.9%), while averaging 263.1 passing yards and 25.8 rushing yards per game.

The second-year quarterback has been integral to the turnaround in New England, which already has eight more wins than it finished with last season.

The Patriots can go from one of the league’s worst teams to the AFC’s No. 1 overall seed in one season.

While Los Angeles still has a slim chance to be the NFC’s No. 1 overall seed, the more likely scenario is that they are forced to settle for a Wild Card spot playing in the best division in football.

If Stafford leads a better offence with better numbers in a better division than Maye, would voters still give Maye the MVP based on the overall record?

Maybe.

We also don’t know how the final two weeks play out.

That said, if I had an MVP vote right now it’s Stafford.

And I have no problem adding another two units to win one unit playing Stafford MVP at -195.

As for the other NFL futures markets, no market is more interesting than AP NFL Coach of the Year.

Mike Vrabel remains a deserved favourite at +190.

However, there are five names at +800 or shorter including Kyle Shanahan, who’s odds were slashed from +500 to +210 as the second choice after last night’s win.

With two weeks remaining, a case can be made for each of Vrabel, Shanahan, Mike Macdonald, Ben Johnson, and Liam Coen to win AP NFL Coach of the Year.

If you tailed me with Vrabel to win Coach of the Year at +1000 before the season started, you’re already getting a pretty good cash out offer from FanDuel this morning.

I’m interested to see how that vote unfolds if the Patriots and one of the 49ers, Seahawks, or Bears win out.

While the NFL loves chaos, I’m willing to bet on three of this week’s games to play out as expected with a moneyline parlay at even-money.

We start with the Detroit Lions beating the Minnesota Vikings and the Denver Broncos beating the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day.

We add the Jacksonville Jaguars to beat the Colts next Sunday and we have a three-team moneyline parlay at +100 odds.

If the Lions and Broncos take care of business, it sets up a potential middle opportunity if we want to come back with Indianapolis +6.5 on the weekend.

I’ll lock in this three-team moneyline parlay at +100 odds as a FanDuel Best Bet for Week 17 in the NFL.

Have a great day, everyone!