Morning Coffee: All eyes on Rivers again in return to Monday Night Football

All season we’ve said the AFC is wide open.

Last night, Drake Maye and the New England Patriots reminded all of us that they’re still in that conversation.

Maye threw for a career-high 380 passing yards and two touchdowns in a 28-24 win over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football.

With the victory, the Patriots clinched their first playoff appearance since 2021.

Maye’s odds to win NFL regular season MVP were cut from +320 to +170 as the second choice at FanDuel.

Matthew Stafford remains the favourite at -195.

With Josh Allen up to +2500 as the third choice, the MVP is now considered a two-horse race between Stafford and Maye with two games remaining.

Meanwhile, Mike Vrabel is the AP NFL Coach of the Year favourite at +210 following New England’s 12-4 start.

In case you missed it, Vrabel is now 23-20 straight up as an underdog of three or more points as a head coach.

https://x.com/MikeReiss/status/2002961550215467408

Seattle Seahawks head coach Mike McDonald is the second choice to win that award at +300 at FanDuel.

While the Patriots are headed back to the playoffs, the Ravens no longer control their path to the postseason.

Baltimore is two games back of the Pittsburgh Steelers for first place in the AFC North with two games to go.

The Ravens would be eliminated with a Week 17 loss to the Green Bay Packers or with a Steelers win over the Cleveland Browns.

The AFC playoff picture continued to come into focus with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers, and the Houston Texans all winning on Sunday.

That leaves the Indianapolis Colts two games back of Houston for the final playoff spot with three games left.

In addition to losing quarterback Daniel Jones and signing 44-year-old Phillip Rivers out of retirement, the Colts face the league’s toughest remaining strength of schedule.

Indianapolis will need to win out with games against the San Francisco 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans, plus get some help from the Chargers to backdoor their way into an AFC Wild Card spot.

While the Colts are in a must-win situation against the 49ers tonight, it’s also important for a San Francisco side that is still in contention for the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

The Niners are 2.5 games back of the Seahawks with games against Indianapolis, the Chicago Bears, and Seattle to close out the regular season.

If San Francisco wins out and the Seahawks lose on the road against the Carolina Panthers next week, the 49ers will clinch the NFC West title and the NFC’s top seed.

Let’s dive into the matchup and lock in a pair of FanDuel Best Bets for Monday Night Football in this Morning Coffee for Monday, December 22^nd, 2025.

All Eyes On Philip Rivers Again In Return To Monday Night Football

In an NFL season filled with surprises, the Colts’ decision to roll the dice on the 44-year-old Rivers nearly five full years post-retirement in an effort to salvage their season might be the biggest.

While all eyes will be on Rivers again tonight, Indy’s odds to make the playoffs have ballooned to +1600 at FanDuel.

That number represents just a 5.9 per cent implied chance that the Colts will make the postseason.

By the end of the night, the bigger story moving forward might be the 49ers in contention for the NFC’s top seed.

San Francisco has won four in a row to improve to remain within two games of Seattle for first place at 10-4.

The Niners are also 4-1 in games against their division opponents, including a 17-13 win over the Seahawks all the way back in Week 1.

If San Francisco wins tonight, it will be two games back of Seattle with two games remaining.

In that scenario, a 49ers’ win over the Bears in Week 17 combined with a Seahawks’ loss in Carolina would set the stage for a winner-take-all Week 18 clash for the division title and the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

San Francisco might be the most dangerous NFC team that nobody is talking about.

Interestingly, Kyle Shanahan was the third choice to win AP NFL Coach of the Year entering Week 16.

He’s now the fourth choice at +500 at FanDuel after being leapfrogged by Bears head coach Ben Johnson (+350).

Shanahan and his staff have managed to navigate several key injuries to remain in contention in the NFL’s toughest division entering the final stretch.

With Pittsburgh’s win over the Detroit Lions on Sunday, the 49ers have officially clinched a playoff spot.

They could still end up as the top seed or in any one of the three Wild Card spots.

San Francisco is a 5.5-point favourite for tonight’s game.

As for a FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll start with George Kittle to record 25+ receiving yards in each half at +140.

Kittle’s receiving yards prop is up to 66.5 at FanDuel.

The Colts have allowed the sixth-most receptions (6.1) and the fifth-most receiving yards (66.3) to opposing tight ends in the NFL this season.

Kittle has dominated against the Cover 3 and Cover 1 looks that Indianapolis employs, and he should be in line for another strong performance tonight.

I’m not sure he gets to 67 receiving yards without getting at least 25 in each half, so the fact that I can play this FanDuel receiving special at +140 screams value.

On the flip side, the Colts to continue to lean on the run game and a quick passing attack with Rivers at QB.

Unlike last week when we cashed Jonathan Taylor over 19.5 rushing yards in the first quarter without a sweat, we won’t get that chance tonight with his over/under for the opening frame set at 27.5.

I played Taylor 10+ rushing yards in each quarter at +120.

With their season on the line, Taylor should be featured heavily again along with fellow back Ameer Abdullah, who had a team-high five catches for 32 yards last week against the Seahawks.

I also expect Rivers to lean on tight end Tyler Warren.

Warren had three catches for 19 yards on six targets last week in Seattle.

The 49ers also play a lot of Cover 3 and Cover 4, and Warren has thrived against those coverages.

San Francisco has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends this season.

Warren should be Rivers’ first read on several throws tonight, and the volume should be decent if the Colts are forced to play from behind.

Give me Warren over 33.5 receiving yards as a FanDuel Best Bet.

Hopefully, we can finish off Week 16 with a sweep.

Enjoy the game, everyone!