Only 12 teams in NFL history have reached the Super Bowl in back-to-back seasons.
It’s hard to imagine any of them facing a tougher road back than the one in front of the Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks own a winning record at 3-2. But they are the third choice to win their own division at FanDuel, behind the 5-0 San Francisco 49ers and the preseason Super Bowl favourite in the Los Angeles Rams.
Mike Macdonald’s Dark Side defence has been as good as advertised early on as the top-ranked unit in terms of total defence, passing defence, and takeaways.
Seattle’s ability to pressure at the second-highest rate despite blitzing at the second-lowest rate in the NFL is the key to keeping opposing quarterbacks off balance and putting a talented secondary in position to make plays.
Still, question marks linger around Sam Darnold and a Seahawks offence that has turned the ball over far too often over the past two seasons.
The transition from former play caller Klint Kubiak to new offensive coordinator Brian Fleury hasn’t been the smoothest, and it doesn’t help that Darnold was injured in Week 1 or that Seattle doesn’t have running back Kenneth Walker III, who has carried the Kansas City Chiefs to a 4-0 start.
Fortunately, they still have the reigning AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year in Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Tonight, the Seahawks travel to Empower Field at Mile High for a showdown with a Denver Broncos side that many still believe would have faced Seattle in the Super Bowl if it wasn’t for an injury that forced quarterback Bo Nix to miss the AFC Championship Game loss to the New England Patriots.
Nix is healthy but the Broncos are dealing with several notable injuries heading into tonight’s primetime clash.
Can Darnold, JSN, and company take advantage of a shorthanded Denver secondary?
Will Seattle’s defence keep Nix in check on a short week?
Let’s set the stage and lock in a FanDuel Best Bet for Thursday Night Football in this Morning Coffee column for Thursday Oct. 15, 2026.
Can JSN lift Seahawks over Broncos on Thursday Night Football?
As good as their defence has been under Macdonald, the Seahawks would not have won a Super Bowl if it wasn’t for Darnold, JSN, and Walker delivering some outstanding postseason performances.
Kubiak made the most out of an offence with issues at quarterback and along the offensive line.
The biggest question mark heading into this season was how Seattle would adapt with Fleury taking over for Kubiak and Walker in Kansas City.
Rookie first-round pick running back Jadarian Price struggled before landing on the IR with a chest injury.
Veteran Zach Charbonnet is working towards his season debut, but is officially out again tonight.
Veteran Emanuel Wilson has emerged as the top option on the ground for a Seahawks offence that has averaged 89.4 running back rushing yards per game, which is slightly below the league average (91.5 per game).
Denver has allowed the fifth most running back rushing yards per game in the NFL (111.0) this season, thanks in large part to a league-high 39 missed tackles and a league-high 64.7 per cent of those running back rushing yards coming after contact.
However, Wilson (2.04) and George Holani (1.46) have both been held under the league average of 2.15 yards after contact per carry, so it will be interesting to see whether the Seahawks can capitalize on this matchup.
The good news for Seattle is that JSN has picked up from where he left off last season with a league-high 116.6 receiving yards per game.
JSN has accounted for nearly half of the Seahawks’ receiving yards and nearly a third of their scrimmage yards with seven touchdowns in five games.
Tonight, he’ll face a Broncos defence that is expected to be without Patrick Surtain and Talanoa Hufanga.
Without Surtain, their man coverage rate collapses.
The Los Angeles Chargers couldn’t capitalize on Denver’s injuries last week because Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Tre Harris were all hurt.
Tight end Charlie Kolar led LA with 37 receiving yards.
Tonight, it will be a different story with Darnold leaning on the reigning AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year as Seattle attempts to avoid back-to-back losses.
Even when he’s covered, Smith-Njigba continues to find ways to make big plays.
After he logged a full practice on Wednesday, all signs point towards another big game tonight in Denver.
JSN’s receiving yards prop is over/under 91.5 at FanDuel. He’s cleared 100+ receiving yards in four of five games this season, and with Denver’s secondary banged up, I’ll lock in the over 91.5 receiving as a FanDuel Best Bet.
Meanwhile, with the Broncos forced to account for the injuries in their secondary as they try to slow down JSN and Rashid Shaheed on the outside, it could leave them vulnerable to passes underneath and behind the line.
Over the past two weeks, JSN leads Seattle with 5.0 receptions on 7.0 targets per game.
In that same span, Wilson and Holani are tied for second with five receptions each over two games.
In last week’s loss to the 49ers, Holani had four catches for 24 yards on four targets. Wilson had two catches for 11 yards on two targets.
Wilson’s fumble that led to a San Francisco score is one reason for that split.
The prior week in a win over the Chargers, it was Wilson with three catches for 39 yards on four targets, with Holani limited to one catch for two yards.
The Broncos have allowed the ninth-most running back receptions per game (4.8) and the 12th-most running back receiving yards per game (34.4) this season.
I’ll trust Wilson to be more sure-handed and add Wilson over 1.5 receptions to my Thursday Night Football card.
As for the Denver offence, it seemed like only a matter of time before Sean Payton took over the play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Davis Webb.
When Payton did take over in Sunday’s win over the Chargers, the Broncos ran the football a season-high 29 times, with J.K. Dobbins accounting for 18 carries.
Part of that approach can be tied to the fact that Denver likely believed they could win that game with defence and limiting mistakes on offence.
Evan Engram led the Broncos with four receptions for 55 receiving yards on a team-high five targets in a Week 5 win over the Chargers.
Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton both registered two receptions on three targets in the victory.
The Seahawks have been excellent against opposing wide receivers and tight ends.
They’ve also held opponents to 77.8 running back rushing yards per game this season.
The two areas where the Seattle defence could be vulnerable are against running back pass targets and against mobile quarterbacks that can run the ball.
Drake Maye and Justin Herbert both rushed for 40 or more yards versus the Seahawks this season.
Nix hasn’t rushed for more than 10 yards in any game this season, yet FanDuel has his rushing yards prop at 14.5.
Meanwhile, R.J. Harvey’s receiving yards prop is 21.5.
Harvey leads Denver’s running backs with 20 catches for 132 yards this season, but he had 10 for 68 in the Week 4 loss to the 49ers.
Last week, Harvey failed to catch his only pass target. Dobbins had two catches for six yards on two targets. Tyler Badie had one reception for minus-five yards.
Dobbins’ receiving yards prop for TNF is only 4.5.
It’s a riskier bet, but Dobbins has exactly two pass targets in three straight games, and he’s registered exactly four, 12, and six receiving yards in those three games.
Facing a Seattle defence that has allowed 5.2 receptions for 29.8 receiving yards, I’m willing to lock in a builder Same Game Parlay with Dobbins 1+ reception and Nix 10+ rushing yards at -110 as one final play for TNF.
Is there another FanDuel Best Bet I should consider?
Hit me up @Domenic_Padula on X and let me know.