Morning Coffee: Canada’s odds to reach World Cup knockout stage improve with Italy’s exit

Growing up in an Italian household meant the World Cup was less of a tournament and more of a family obligation.

All the families would come together for the traditional lunch at nonna’s, and the cousins would practice our penalty kicks in the backyard before rushing inside during the anthems to eat and watch the game together.

All these years later, I was looking forward to making new memories with my children this summer.

Unfortunately, they’ll be at least four years older before we get to watch Italy compete in a World Cup together.

After falling to Bosnia and Herzegovina in penalty kicks on Tuesday, Italy is the first former champion that has failed to qualify for three straight FIFA World Cup tournaments.

Remember, Italy was a top 10 choice to win World Cup at FanDuel prior to Tuesday’s Qualification Play-Off Final, which is a testament to how far they have fallen.

While Italians mourn the disappointment of another massive failure, Canadian soccer fans with no ties to the Azzurri celebrated Bosnia and Herzegovina’s qualification.

Let’s dive into how that stunning upset impacted FanDuel’s World Cup odds in this Morning Coffee column for Wednesday April 1^st, 2026.

Canada’s Odds To Reach World Cup Knockout Stage Improve With Italy’s Exit

With Italy considered a heavy favourite to qualify for the World Cup as the UEFA Pathway A winner, the FanDuel trading team had to price the Group B odds accordingly.

The UEFA Pathway A winner was +105 to win Group B as the favourite at FanDuel.

Switzerland was +140 as a close second choice.

Canada was +550 as the third choice to win the group.

Bosnia and Herzegovina beating both Wales and Italy to steal the final qualification spot in Group B led to an interesting shakeup at FanDuel.

Switzerland’s odds were cut from +140 to -110 as the favourite to win Group B.

Canada’s odds to win Group B were slashed from +550 to +260 as the second choice behind the Swiss.

Bosnia and Herzegovina was inserted at +270 as the third choice to win Group B.

Qatar remains a distant long shot at 35-to-1 (+3500).

Meanwhile, Switzerland, Canada, and Bosnia and Herzogovina all have a 75 per cent or better implied probability to advance to the World Cup knockout stage based on FanDuel’s updated odds to qualify.

Switzerland is -700 to qualify from Group B, followed by Canada at -350 and Bosnia and Herzegovina at -310.

Interestingly, Canada’s odds to win World Cup lengthened at FanDuel overnight.

Canada was already a 100-to-1 long shot to win the title.

Despite having shorter odds to reach the Round of 32, Canada’s odds to win the tournament at FanDuel jumped from 100-to-1 to 150-to-1.

FanDuel has the Round of 32 as a +125 favourite for Canada’s Stage of Elimination at World Cup.

Canada to go out in the group stage and in the Round of 16 are each priced at +280.

Canada to be eliminated in the quarter-final is +750.

As for the remaining qualification spots, Sweden did the improbable by reaching for the World Cup despite not winning a single match in its qualifying group.

Sweden suffered four losses and produced two draws in qualifying but capitalized on a second chance to make the tournament based on its results in the 2024-25 Nations League competition.

Sweden is now the third choice to win Group F at +430, behind the Netherlands (-140) and Japan (+350).

Meanwhile, Turkey beat Kosovo 1-0 in its Play-Off Final and will join the USA, Paraguay, and Australia in Group D.

The Americans remain the Group D favourite at +140.

After chatting about that group with our TSN Soccer analyst Steven Caldwell, I’m convinced there is value backing Turkey to win Group D at +180.

With the field for the tournament expanding to 48 teams, there will be four debutants at the World Cup in Uzbekistan, Jordan, Cape Verde, and Curacao.

All four teams are 500-to-1 long shots to win World Cup.

Cape Verde has the shortest odds to qualify for the knockout stage of the four at +165 in a Group H that features Spain, Uruguay, and Saudi Arabia.

After locking in Turkey to win Group D at +180 as a FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll certainly be looking for more opportunities to add to my World Cup card now that the field is officially set.

Is there a longshot bet that you think I should consider locking in now at FanDuel?

Hit me up @Domenic_Padula on X and let me know.

In 72 days, Canada and Bosnia will meet in the opening match of the tournament for both teams at BMO Field.

With Italy out of the mix, Canada’s odds to reach the knockout stage at World Cup have improved.

Now we wait to find out whether Canada can capitalize or we see another Bosnia upset on June 12^th.

Have a great day, everyone!