Morning Coffee: Habs stun Lightning, punch ticket to second round in wide open Eastern Conference

The Montreal Canadiens have defied the odds again.

A 100-to-1 longshot to win the Stanley Cup, the Habs just pulled off the biggest surprise of the first round, and they did it in the most improbable way possible.

The Colorado Avalanche were the only NHL contender considered more likely to advance to the second round than the Tampa Bay Lightning, according to FanDuel’s odds entering the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Instead, the Canadiens pushed the Lightning to seven games and closed out the series with a 2-1 win on the road despite being held to nine shots on goal – a new NHL record for fewest all-time in a postseason win.

Jakub Dobes, the 24-year-old who had to fight for the starting job in Montreal this season, turned aside 29 of the 30 shots he faced to become the fifth rookie goaltender in franchise history to win a Game 7.

The captain Nick Suzuki scored his first of these playoffs on a deflection late in the first period.

Then the Canadiens didn’t register a single shot on goal in the second period – the first time that’s happened in 786 franchise postseason games.

It didn’t matter though, because Alex Newhook got the bounce that he needed on a go-ahead goal with less than 10 minutes left in the third period, and Dobes shut the door the rest of the way to secure the upset victory.

For Habs fans, it’s the kind of series that makes you believe in playoff magic again.

Montreal was +130 to win Game 7 at FanDuel.

Ultimately, the Canadiens defied the odds and pulled off an improbable victory to survive a first round series that they opened at +240 to win, securing the biggest upset of the first round based on FanDuel’s odds.

Here’s the best part: a popular narrative throughout the first round was that whichever team survived that fight between Montreal and Tampa Bay was capable of a deep run in an Eastern Conference bracket that is wide open.

Now only one Eastern Conference team has shorter odds to reach the Stanley Cup Final than the Habs at FanDuel.

Let’s dive into those numbers in this Morning Coffee column for Monday May 4^th, 2026.

Habs Stun Lightning, Punch Ticket Second Round In Wide Open Eastern Conference

The Canadiens opened 100-to-1 to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel last summer.

While the Habs exceeded all expectations by finishing third in the Atlantic Division as a team that was +156 just to make the playoffs, they still didn’t get much respect after drawing a first-round match-up against Tampa Bay.

Montreal opened +240 to advance and could still be found as high as 35-to-1 to win the Stanley Cup entering the postseason.

Only the Philadelphia Flyers and Boston Bruins had longer odds to win the Eastern Conference than the Canadiens at 15-to-1.

Fast-forward two weeks later, Montreal to win the Eastern Conference has gone from +1500 to +390.

Only the Carolina Hurricanes have shorter odds (-160).

The Canadiens opened as a pick’em (-110) for their second round series against the Buffalo Sabres.

As of this morning, Montreal is -113 to advance.

The Hurricanes looked unstoppable in Game 1 of their second round series against the Philadelphia Flyers.

After a four-game sweep of the Ottawa Senators in the first round, Carolina has the easiest possible path to the Stanley Cup Final of any NHL based on FanDuel’s odds.

Without the Lightning or Florida Panthers in their way, the Hurricanes will be hoping the Canadiens have to play another grueling seven-game series against the Sabres.

Meanwhile, the Colorado Avalanche won Game 1 of their heavyweight tilt against the Minnesota Wild on Sunday night in a game that featured 15 combined goals.

The Avalanche and Hurricanes are co-favourites to win the Stanley Cup at +195 at FanDuel.

If they can find a way to get past Minnesota without losing any key pieces, Colorado will be the favourite to win it all at FanDuel entering the conference finals.

The Vegas Golden Knights are a -200 favourite to advance to the Western Conference Finals entering Game 1 of their second round series against the Anaheim Ducks.

While the Golden Knights are a deserved favourite, the Ducks just upset the Edmonton Oilers as a +160 underdog in the first round and can be found at a similar price do double down at +164 to eliminate Vegas.

Anaheim averaged 5.5 goals and scored at least four or more in all four of its wins over Edmonton.

Meanwhile, the Golden Knights averaged 4.75 goals and scored four or more goals in all four of their wins over the Utah Mammoth in the first round.

Are we in store for another high-event game when Vegas hosts Anaheim in Game 1 tonight?

I’m banking on it with a builder Same Game Parlay that features the over 5.5 total goals and Pavel Dorofeyev to register 2+ shots on goal.

The Golden Knights and Ducks have played 12 games combined this postseason – none of them featured fewer than five goals.

Lukas Dostal and Carter Hart ranked among the worst goalies in the NHL in Goals Saved Above Expected in the first round and my hope is that trend continues tonight.

Meanwhile, Dorofeyev registered a team-high 18 shots on goal on 31 attempts in the first round versus Utah, with 2+ hitting each of the first five games of the series before a blowout victory in Game 6.

He registered 2+ shots on goal in all three regular season meetings versus Anaheim.

As for Game 2 between the Hurricanes and Flyers, I’ll go right back to the well with three player props that cashed for me in the series opener.

Logan Stankoven to record 1+ point at -122.

Stankoven to record 3+ shots on goal at -106.

Taylor Hall to record 1+ point at -104.

Since he’s been so good to us, I’ll also sprinkle some coffee money on Stankoven to extend his goal streak at +180 and to score the first goal at +1200.

It’s no longer a secret that the trio of Stankoven, Hall, and Jackson Blake has been Carolina’s best line so far in these Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Stankoven, Blake, and Hall combined for five points in Game 1 and have scored 10 of the Hurricanes’ 14 goals this postseason.

Hopefully, that line stays hot in Game 2 tonight.

Have a great day, everyone!