Over 10 games into the NBA season, sample sizes are now large enough to begin making definitive declarations.
Injuries have swept through the league like a blight.
The rookie class is on pace to finish as a generational one.
The supposed shift in power from West to East seems to have hit a roadblock.
One of my favourite quotes that applies to sports betting – “the only constant in life is change.”
More unexpected twists and turns are coming, but for now we should take an early pause to review what we’ve seen.
Taking a page from Basketball Island, TSN’s NBA betting podcast which can be found on YouTube, we’re going to play a game called For Real or Fugazi which is a spin on contenders and pretenders.
I’ll go through the three biggest win total risers from Opening Night till now and flag whether those teams are priced fairly or whether it’s time to sell-high.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES, 30.5 -> 39.5-WIN TOTAL
With a nine-game spike, no team has jumped up further on the win total board than the Memphis Grizzlies.
They opened with a blazing hot 6-0 start, Ty Jerome led the league in scoring through three games, and Cameron Boozer looked on pace to run away with Rookie of the Year.
Since then, they’ve cooled off losing four of their last five games.
I’m here to tell you the days are about to get darker.
It feels like it’s been overlooked, but five of their seven wins have come over sub .500 teams. Four of those wins came against teams with just a single victory thus far.
According to Tankathon.com, Memphis owns the second-most difficult remaining strength of schedule; they haven’t been truly tested.
The good news for Grizzlies fans? Their schedule remains soft as they play New Orleans, Brooklyn, Washington, Cleveland and Golden State over their next five games.
At the end of that stretch though, which is 17 games, they will not have played a single game against a Top 4 opponent from either conference.
Digging deeper into their production, there are a few things I would flag.
First is Cameron Boozer’s shooting touch.
Memphis has bestowed a surprising workload on the third-overall pick, and their success will be heavily anchored to his roller coaster rookie season.
At the moment, he’s shooting 29.0 percent from deep and 36.6 from the field. If that’s your second option on offence, good luck getting to .500.
As talented as he is with his basketball IQ, his difficulty finding easier shots could bring them back down to earth.
The second sell-high I ponder is Jerome’s hot shooting.
Even though he flashed signs of this over his 15 games with Memphis last year, the eye-test makes me wonder how sustainable his shotmaking is.
Comparing his tracking data on NBA.com against his peers, Jerome takes an eye-popping 13.0 percent of his FGAs with a defender two feet or less away.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the most heavily swarmed guard, has a defender two feet away just 5.1 percent of the time.
Steph Curry sits at 8.1 percent, Tyrese Maxey is at 8.5, Jamal Murray is at 10.8.
I fear some regression to the mean is in store for this squad with tougher opponents incoming.
The Pick: At 39.5, the Grizzlies are Fugazi
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS, 41.5 -> 49.5-WIN TOTAL
Contrary to the Grizzlies, the Trailblazers have had several statement wins thus far.
They overcame a 41-point barrage by Luka Doncic to hand LA their first loss, they earned a comeback victory over three-time MVP Nikola Jokic, and most recently they swept OKC on a back-to-back in Moda Center.
That’s five MVP trophies between those three with a potential sixth one coming if Doncic maintains this pace.
So full marks to Portland for showing up and earning four hard fought wins.
Every core player from last year has organically improved their game whether it’s Deni Avdija’s offensive bag, Toumani Camara’s suffocating perimeter defence or Donovan Clingan’s improved rim presence.
But the biggest injection for this team has to be the return of Portland legend, Damian Lillard.
After two disappointing seasons in Milwaukee which ended with a devastating left Achilles tear, there were no guarantees that he’d return anything close to his original form.
Well, it’s safe to say that Lillard still has some left in the tank.
He might never be a 30 ppg scorer again, but the gravity he commands has made life easier for his teammates leading to Portland’s third-ranked offence.
At 49.5 wins, that would put them in a tie with Minnesota for fifth and one win ahead of the Denver Nuggets at 48.5.
As much as the chemistry seems to be clicking, I’m not ready to anoint them as a 50-win team.
That is a major milestone especially in a year where anti-tanking rules have been rolled out.
Portland might be a Top 6 team but I can’t place them in the same category as San Antonio, OKC, Houston and LA.
The Pick: At 49.5, the Trailblazers are Fugazi
HOUSTON ROCKETS, 48.5 -> 55.5-WIN TOTAL
Would you look at that, the three biggest risers all reign from the West – a conference that was supposedly on the decline.
The Rockets currently find themselves in a tie for third out West and own the fourth-best net rating overall.
Just like the Blazers, Houston has compiled landmark results with wins over San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Boston and Denver.
Last season they finished with a Top 5 defensive rating and that has carried over to this season.
What has surprised most is their offensive rating rising up into the Top 5 as well.
The Rockets have quickly become one of the most balanced two-way teams; a true test for any championship contender.
There are several directions you can point in, but I believe Fred VanVleet deserves the most praise.
After missing all of last season, VanVleet has added stability to Houston’s starting five providing a level of poise and organization they lacked the year prior.
Houston was all over the place filling that final starter spot with Reed Sheppard, Josh Okogie and Tari Eason.
VanVleet is the prototypical “adult in the room”.
Their young core has also collectively made improvements year-over-year.
Alperen Sengun has increased his passing production from 6.2 apg to 7.8.
Jabari Smith Jr. has gone from 45/36/78 shooting splits to 49/42/87 this season.
Amen Thompson has been able to share the playmaking responsibilities with VanVleet and focused more of his energy being a lockdown stopper on defence.
What’s also encouraging has been their decreased dependence on Kevin Durant offensively.
At age-38, it’s only fair to expect diminishing returns with each passing game.
His scoring is down from 26.0 to 20.9 this season, yet the team’s scoring output remains identical year-over-year.
Houston also has one of the most capable bench units in the league combining veteran presence with young upside.
They are deep enough to sustain multiple injuries and still finish Top 3.
The Pick: At 55.5, the Rockets are for real