Setting The Pick – NBA Cup Slate No. 2

­If you’re reading this article, chances are you’ve experienced the full roller coaster of betting.

We all remember our biggest parlay hits, our worst beats and the times we’ve been one leg away.

The reality of betting?

Our results are way closer to 50/50 than we let on.

Transparency with the public is one thing, staying true to yourself and your principles is another.

Hopefully you have a trusted formula, process or system that guides your wagers; one that continues to evolve with each slate.

Last week I wrote about three bets I was high on ahead of the NBA Cup.

All three of those got dismantled.

The Raptors and Rockets both closed as -5.5 favourites ahead of tip-off – both ending up losing outright.

The Celtics were up 32 points in the second quarter versus the Bulls and wound up giving back 18 points, coming half a point under the spread.

Toronto and Houston aren’t dead, but those futures were dealt a major blow.

Boston was definitely a gut punch.

This is live sports though – there’s a limit to how much we can predict ahead of time.

As we approach the second slate of the NBA Cup, I come in with the same principles.

I’m looking for point differential-led opportunities, standings-based gaps and teams that have more to gain via this tournament than others.

BIGGEST SPREAD OF THE 2026-27 SEASON

Let’s kick things off by dissecting the San Antonio Spurs who are 16.5-point favourites against the Sacramento Kings.

They’ve already played once this season with San Antonio winning 130-103. The Spurs are coming off six straight wins and kick off their tournament tonight.

Unless some last-minute injuries pop up, there is nothing that would sway me to side with Sacramento.

I don’t like how they’ve given complete control to a 19-year-old rookie, the team chemistry is rocky, and the coaching staff has made questionable decisions all year.

For San Antonio, they don’t necessarily check all the NBA Cup boxes.

Yes, they are young, but after achieving NBA Finals success, there’s little motivation for them to risk injury and run up the score.

That’s why I’d target a bench player like Keldon Johnson to get more garbage time minutes.

The Spurs have played two games this year with a 25-point lead heading into the fourth quarter.

In both of those contests, Johnson played the majority of the fourth and finished with his best two games.

He had 15 points and 7 rebounds versus the Jazz and 14 points and 4 rebounds against the aforementioned Kings.

Let’s not forget this is the reigning Sixth Man of the Year, somebody who averaged 13.2 ppg and 5.4 rpg last year.

In three contests versus Sacramento last season, he had two 18-point performances and a 14-point game at home.

I’d take his base line and ladder him up one level to 20+ points and rebounds (+290).

The Pick: Keldon Johnson to record 15+ points and rebounds, -113

DALLAS ANNOUNCING THEMSELVES?

Cooper Flagg and the Mavericks pulled off a massive victory against the Rockets last Friday to open the NBA Cup.

The 2025-26 Rookie of the Year dropped a 33-9-6 performance on one of the best defences in the league.

For Game 2 of the tournament, Flagg and company have a chance to go 2-0, making a serious statement about their trajectory for the season.

Up against a vulnerable Utah squad, I really like this spot for him and the team.

The Jazz have quickly gotten thin in their frontcourt losing Jusuf Nurkic to injury before Opening Night and then Jaren Jackson Jr. just four games in.

They’ve gone 1-7 to open; far from their lofty expectations coming into the season.

There are a few things the Jazz do defensively that bodes well for Flagg.

According to Cleaning The Glass, they allow the second-lowest shot frequency from deep this year.

That seems quite intentional as they were the polar opposite a year prior.

Good thing for Flagg? Just 12.4 percent of his points come from deep.

Another problem for Utah has been their foul-rate, which is now last behind Toronto.

Flagg sits at 7.3 free-throw attempts a night, 13^th in the NBA.

Finally, Utah has consistently let playmakers get into the paint, something Flagg has improved dramatically this year.

Coming off a game where he was forced to play point guard and one up against Victor Wembanyama, I like his scoring prop as a buy-low spot.

He is easily playing at an All-NBA level.

The Pick: Cooper Flagg over 25.5 points, -122

JOE MAZZ MADNESS

I mentioned the bad beat I took on Boston last Friday; I think they have another plus opportunity today given their opponent.

At the time of writing, the Celtics are -9.5 in Charlotte.

It must be flagged how decimated the Hornets roster is.

Kon Knueppel made his season-debut on Wednesday only to play five minutes before sustaining a hamstring injury.

Coby White rejoined the team two games ago but has yet to clear 20 minutes.

Tonight, Charlotte is missing two additional rotation players in Moussa Diabate and Dennis Schroder while Boston is at full strength.

The roster overhaul for the Hornets has not yielded positive returns thus far.

They’re 3-6 having lost to the lowly Nets while getting blown out by Detroit, Washington and Atlanta.

As I wrote last week, the Celtics are coached by a madman in Joe Mazzulla.

I don’t expect him to take the foot off the gas pedal.

A double-digit win would put Boston well on their way to a knockout stage berth.

I’m willing to climb the ladder here once again.

The Pick: Boston Celtics -9.5, -112