This is one of the most fascinating NBA seasons in recent memory.
Sure, the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs reign supreme as the perennial contenders.
But it’s the New York Knicks who currently hold the trophy, a completely unexpected result last year that ended New York’s 53-year championship drought. The NBA world got to witness the streets of Manhattan turn into Gotham City in celebration, with scenes straight out of a movie.
While all three of those teams deserve their shine, an endless rush of off-season transactions has injected a world of unknowns this year.
LeBron James’ arrival in Philadelphia alongside Jaylen Brown came out of left field.
Giannis Antetokounmpo finally ended his Bucks drama and agreed to a trade to the Miami Heat.
The Kawhi Leonard cap circumvention saga was put to bed with the two-time Finals MVP returning to Toronto where he last won a championship.
Those are just three of the major changes made ahead of the 2026-27 season. You’d be hard pressed to find a team that’s simply running it back in either conference. Each team has some wrinkle coming into the year that’ll make things feel fresh.
With one sleep to go before Opening Day, this is the time of year to file all your predictions and get your receipts in.
Let’s get to it.
NBA FINALS WINNER
The NBA hasn’t had a repeat champion since the Golden State Warriors in 2018, and it seems very likely that trend will continue this season.
The Knicks come into the year priced at +950 to win it all, which translates roughly to a 10 per cent shot at the title, but well behind the top two choices.
Oklahoma City and San Antonio are priced at +240 and +280, respectively, and make up the majority of the implied probability for this market.
There’s no denying that they are a cut above the rest of the league and their win totals reflect that. However, I think it’s important to point out that the Spurs were +6000 on Opening Night last year and fell just short of the title.
In a season full of ambiguity, is there a longshot team that could defy the odds?
If so, I’d circle Toronto (+2500), Houston (+2700) and Miami (+3000) as three teams that could quickly see their price drop once the regular season begins.
All three have Hall of Famers leading their squads with a strong defensive pedigree. As dark horses, I think they have the right mix to pull off an upset. They obviously have their shortcomings but are well-coached and talented enough to be a threat.
When push comes to shove though, I feel strongly that San Antonio deserves to be priced as the favourites not only for making the Finals, but also for their incoming organic growth.
At 22, Victor Wembanyama isn’t even off his rookie contract. Stephon Castle has a chance to make another leap in his third year, and sophomore Dylan Harper teased NBA fans with his immense upside during their playoff run.
They also made a sneaky important addition in veteran Tobias Harris, who provides critical shot making off the bench. I’ll happily bet the Spurs as the second title choice going into Opening Night.
The Pick: San Antonio Spurs to win the Championship, +280
NBA CUP WINNER
In the third edition of the NBA Cup, the New York Knicks were the first team ever to pull off the ‘domestic double’ and win both trophies.
Milwaukee fell flat two years ago while the Lakers’ season took a turn for the worse after winning the inaugural tournament.
When examining this market, I think it’s important to look for teams that have something to gain from winning this trophy. That could be confidence, validation or respect. There has to be a level of motivation that older, more accomplished teams won’t have.
Another important theme for betting the NBA Cup is finding advantages in how the groups are formed.
The one that I’ll flag for betting purposes is East Group B. This is the NBA version of the group of death.
The five team mix here is New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Miami, and Indiana.
Not a single team is projected to finish below .500. All five are within the top eight to win the East.
This logjam of talent creates opportunity in the wildcard berth for the other two groups.
As a refresher, the three group winners automatically advance while a fourth team advances as the top second-place team. That team has to own the best point differential and almost always finishes 3-1.
With this group of death, it’s unlikely any of those five teams will have an opportunity to blow out an opponent. So, chances are only one team from East Group B moves on.
This is why I actually see opportunity for the Toronto Raptors in East Group A.
They have the benefit of playing Milwaukee and Brooklyn, the two lowest win totals in the East.
Hypothetically, they could go 4-0 if they beat Detroit and Orlando, but even if they happen to lose one of those games, their point differential could be enough for them to advance as the wildcard.
I look at a team like Toronto who owns the sixth-shortest odds to win the championship and see value in them for the NBA Cup.
This is a very young, unproven team that stands to gain a ton from winning this.
Leonard likely wants to remind the league that he’s still a championship-calibre leader.
Considering their group stage advantages, I like taking a swing at their price.
The Pick: Toronto Raptors to win the NBA Cup, +1800
NBA AWARDS
I love betting player awards because there are often opportunities to unearth longshot winners.
Marcus Smart famously was 250-to-1 around the trade deadline before winning Defensive Player of the Year in 2021-22. Dyson Daniels was 100-to-1 for Most Improved Player in March two years ago before sprinting to the finish line. Most recently, Nickeil Alexander-Walker was the fifth choice for MIP in March before leapfrogging Jalen Duren, Jalen Johnson, Deni Avdija and Ryan Rollins for the George Mikan Trophy.
For the 2026-27 NBA season, some awards have become so tough to bet, it’s near impossible to find a viable dart throw.
MVP is as tough as it gets; you basically never find a true threat for the award beyond +1000. DPOY is essentially unbettable as long as Wemby is playing. ROTY has an exciting four-horse race but will almost certainly not go to anyone outside that mix.
That leaves us with four other trophies to work with.
Of all options outstanding, I like taking fliers on candidates who can shine in the MIP market.
There are a few commonalties amongst recent winners that I foresee repeating this year. They must:
- Have a clear path to substantial minutes or usage growth
- Have a shot at reaching 20+ PPG
Alexander-Walker and Daniels jumped up roughly 10 minutes per game these past two seasons.
Tyrese Maxey went from 33.6 to 37.5 minutes three years ago but was really aided by James Harden’s trade demand who refused to play on Opening Night.
If you run down the list, 11-of-13 past winners averaged above 20 a night.
Daniels is one exception; Pascal Siakam was the other, going from 7.3 to 16.9 PPG.
There’s also been a change in narrative regarding the player prototype that gets awarded. Voters seem to be shying away from high-profile draft picks that are making leaps as expected.
Cade Cunningham was a -400 favourite for MIP at one point two years ago but was usurped by Daniels at the last minute. Wemby opened that same season as the MIP favourite but quickly got priced out. Amen Thompson, the fourth-overall pick in 2023, started last year as the betting favourite but was 500-to-1 by the trade deadline.
Considering the criteria I laid out, Ty Jerome jumps out as a player who might earn the empathy of voters.
This is a seven-year journeyman who’s been on five NBA teams but never found himself a starting role.
He was third in Sixth Man of the Year voting two years ago and almost averaged a point per minute in 15 games with Memphis last year. Unfortunately, a calf strain kept him out for the first 46 games before tanking objectives limited his minutes late in the year.
Based on his preseason usage, Memphis seems set on utilizing him as their lead guard and he’s flashing the type of production that would gain traction for this award. He’s also a relative unknown, so if the Grizzlies overachieve, he has a chance to exponentially grow in popularity.
He’s shown the per minute abilities, now he gets a chance to execute in a starting role.
The Pick: Ty Jerome for Most Improved Player, +1500
NBA WIN TOTALS
I’ll wrap up by spotlighting the win total I’m most bullish on.
I love the Houston Rockets to clear their 48.5 mark.
This is a team coming off two straight 52-win seasons. They wrapped up last season with the fifth-best defensive rating. Ime Udoka has proven he’s a winning coach, getting the most out of his teams especially in the regular season.
In his first year with the team, Kevin Durant showed that at 37, his game has gracefully matured and he still has the durability and poise to operate as an offensive leader. The team also has enough organic growth opportunity in Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., and Reed Sheppard.
They also get two key veterans back in the lineup – Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams.
The Rockets have the right mix of veteran talent, young legs, and urgency to overachieve this season.
I think they are the clear third-best team in the West, a conference that has a talent deficit with all the offseason moves.
The Pick: Houston Rockets over 48.5 wins, -110