The Playbook: Best Bets For NFL Sunday Week 2

You can’t go 2-0 unless you’re 1-0.

That’s what Jim Harbaugh told reporters after the Los Angeles Chargers upset the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1.

He’s not wrong, as any bettor can confirm.

With the win, Harbaugh improved to 6-0 all-time as a head coach in NFL season openers.

In case you missed it, I asked what the ceiling is for this year’s Chargers in the Wednesday September 10th edition of my Morning Coffee column for tsn.ca.

I also tailed my guy Davis Sanchez following his Early Lean and jumped on Chargers -3 against the Las Vegas Raiders as a FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football.

We already cashed Green Bay Packers -3 as one of two best bets I gave out for a 2-0 start to Week 2 on Thursday Night Football.

If you’re only interested in skipping right to the picks, I’ll end this column with a recap of my FanDuel Best Bets for Week 2 at the bottom of the page.

This week, we get six divisional games, three games between 2024 playoff teams, and four games between teams that started 1-0.

The Green Bay Packers have already proved to all of us that they are legitimate Super Bowl contenders with a pair of dominant victories over 2024 playoff teams in the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders.

Transparently, I’m 2-0 betting the Packers as a side this season, but 0-2 betting the over on Matthew Golden’s receiving yards props with another unit towards the over on his regular season receiving yards prop pending.

Not good, eh?

Anyways, I like the Chargers in another battle of 1-0 teams on Monday Night Football.

I also lean Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Houston Texans in another match-up of 2024 playoff teams.

What is the odds Houston, Detroit, and Kansas City all start the season 0-2?

A three-team parlay with Chicago, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay to win pays +1234 at FanDuel, but that number is inflated because the Bears are up to +220.

Dating back to 1990, only 12.2 per cent of teams that started 0-2 have gone on to make the playoffs.

Only three of the 288 teams that started 0-2 went on to win the Super bowl.

Speaking of potential 0-2 teams, there’s no way the Baltimore Ravens can follow up a monumental 15-point, fourth-quarter collapse against the Buffalo Bills with a loss to the Cleveland Browns as an 11.5-point favourite in their home opener, right?

The Browns are +540 to pull off the upset in Baltimore.

While Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are kicking off against Cleveland, all eyes will be on Ford Field for what I consider the main event of the NFL Sunday 1 PM ET slate.

Bears head coach Ben Johnson returns to Detroit.

As ugly as things got in their Week 1 loss to Green Bay, Lions fans have come around to the idea that they simply got beat up by a good Packers team on the road and are primed to bounce back this weekend.

Of course, any optimism in Detroit would be completely wiped away with a loss to Chicago.

The spread for this game has climbed from Lions -4.5 to Lions -6.5 since I locked in the initial number as a FanDuel Best Bet for Week 2 in Morning Coffee.

At this point, I might be more comfortable locking in a Same Game Parlay with Detroit to win outright and David Montgomery to have a decent rushing performance than sticking with the Lions to cover the 4.5.

More on that in just a minute.

The Lions led the NFL in points per game (29.0), total yards per game (394.8), red zone TD percentage (66.7), and passer rating (103.1) with Johnson as their OC from 2022 through 2024.

Johnson left Detroit for Chicago where he inherited 2024 NFL Draft first-round pick Caleb Williams at quarterback.

While the QB play will be the media’s focus, I want to see how the Lions’ rushing attack performs in Week 2.

In Week 1, Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy struggled mightily early on in his NFL debut, until Jordan Mason got the ground game going in the second half against the Bears defence and opened some room.

While there were plenty of potential problem areas for Detroit in Week 1, Dan Campbell’s biggest concern was a rushing attack that averaged 2.1 yards per carry and finished with a total of 46 rushing yards.

The Lions have an absolutely loaded cast of pass catchers in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Kalif Raymond and rookie Isaac TeSlaa.

Meanwhile, running back Jahmyr Gibbs set a career-high with 10 receptions in Week 1, even though his 31 receiving yards was the fewest in NFL history by a player with 10 catches.

David Montgomery led Detroit with 11 carries and 25 rushing yards.

Over the last two seasons, the tandem of Montgomery and Gibbs combined to average 5.0 yards per carry on 24.8 combined carries per game.

They also averaged 159.9 scrimmage yards.

If Campbell’s priority is to establish the run, they should have a pretty good chance to do it against a defence that just allowed Jordan Mason to average 4.5 yards per carry for 68 yards on 15 carries despite a mostly positive game script in a Week 1 loss to Minnesota.

I bet Montgomery over 10.5 rushing attempts.

I also bet Montgomery over 41.5 rushing yards.

I also bet Montgomery over 12.5 receiving yards.

While Gibbs will contribute both as a runner and a receiver, I bet Gibbs over 3.5 receptions as a number that just seemed far too low for a player that just had 10 catches against the Packers in Week 1.

If the goal is to establish the run early and use Gibbs more often as a pass catcher, that should leave me in good shape with all the wagers I’ve listed above.

As for a FanDuel Best Bet, I went with Montgomery 30+ rushing yards and Gibbs 3+ receptions at -120.

I also like Montgomery over 10.5 rushing attempts as a FanDuel Best Bet.

I also like Montgomery over 12.5 receiving yards as a FanDuel Best Bet.

I’ll add that to the list at the bottom of this page.

As for the Bears, any optimism surrounding Williams’ hot start dissipated quickly after Chicago blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter against the Vikings.

As somebody who bet the Cole Kmet receiving yards prop, it was difficult to watch Williams airmail a couple of throws that should have hit the veteran tight end on the numbers.

Fortunately, Kmet managed to snag a 31-yard reception on one of his four targets, which is all we needed to cash his over.

This week, FanDuel has his receiving yards prop at 19.5.

Anybody who watches receptions like this one will never understand why Williams won’t target Kmet more often.

One player he has targeted often is fellow 2024 first round pick Rome Odunze, who had six catches for 37 yards on a team-high nine targets in Week 1.

Odunze landed the coveted slot receiver role in Johnson’s offence and according to Ryan Heath from Fantasy Points, he delivered the best average separation score of any player from the slot in Week 1.

The Packers receivers feasted on the Lions in Week 1.

Odunze over 3.5 receptions is a FanDuel Best Bet for me.

You can check out the rest of my best bets for the NFL Sunday 1 PM ET slate at the bottom of this column.

Moving on to the 4 PM ET slate, we get a Super Bowl rematch that some friends of mine were surprised to see isn’t the Sunday Night Football main event.

Patrick Mahomes has never started 0-2.

However, with Rashee Rice suspended and Xavier Worthy banged up, I felt compelled to jump on Philly +105.

The Eagles absolutely beat up the Chiefs 40-22 in a Super Bowl that was far more lopsided than the final score indicated.

Nobody should argue Jalen Hurts is a better quarterback than Mahomes.

However, Hurts has produced the better numbers of the two quarterbacks through two head-to-head meetings in the Super Bowl, in part because his weapons are that much better.

On Sunday, Philadelphia will roll out a dominant offensive line, with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Jahan Dotson, and Saquon Barkley as the key skill position standouts.

With Rice suspended and Worthy sidelined, the Chiefs will counter with Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Travis Kelce, and Isiah Pacheco with Mahomes playing behind a line that looked very suspect in Week 1.

The Eagles defence wreaked havoc against Mahomes in the Super Bowl.

While a Week 2 game at Arrowhead Stadium should produce a much different vibe, I decided to roll the dice on the more complete team at plus-money as a FanDuel Best Bet.

Meanwhile, I locked in a Same Game Parlay with Hurts to rush for 30 or more yards and Mahomes to rush for 20 or more yards at -120 as a FanDuel Best Bet in Friday’s Morning Coffee column.

Both quarterbacks led their team in rushing in Week 1.

Hurts had 62 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns against the Dallas Cowboys.

Mahomes had 57 rushing yards and a rushing score against the Chargers.

A Same Game Parlay with both QBs to rush for 50+ yards pays 14-to-1 at FanDuel.

As for another FanDuel Best Bet, give me Dotson over 10.5 receiving yards after he had three receptions for 59 yards against the Cowboys in Week 1.

Keep in mind – Dotson also had two catches for 42 yards against Kansas City in the Super Bowl.

I’ll also lock in a Same Game Parlay with the Arizona Cardinals to beat the Carolina Panthers and tight end Tre McBride to register 50+ receiving yards at -108.

Below is a full list of my FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Sunday Week 2.

Hopefully, we can have some success this week and if you like the column, it’s something I can expand in Week 3.

Please remember to play responsibly and enjoy the football, everyone!

NFL Week 2 FanDuel Best Bets

Sides/Totals

Detroit Lions -4.5 vs Chicago Bears 1PM

Cowboys 1PM /Cardinals ML 4PM

Philadelphia Eagles +105 at Kansas City Chiefs 4PM

Player Props

Garrett Wilson over 59.5 receiving yards 1PM

Justin Fields over 43.5 rushing yards 1PM

Cedric Tillman 40+ receiving yards 1PM

Hunter Henry over 33.5 receiving yards 1PM

Jonnu Smith over 3.5 receptions 1PM

David Montgomery over 10.5 rushing attempts 1PM

David Montgomery over 12.5 receiving yards 1PM

Rome Odunze over 3.5 receptions 1PM

Jahan Dotson over 10.5 receiving 4PM

Same Game Parlays(+)

1 PM Sunday

CHI/DET -120: Montgomery 30+ rushing yards, Gibbs 3+ receptions

4 PM Sunday

PHI/KC -120: Jalen Hurts 30+ rushing, Patrick Mahomes 15+ rushing

CAR/ARZ -108: Cardinals ML, Tre McBride 50+ receiving